REO-Auction Contest Results

by | Jun 9, 2014 | Auctions, Contests, REOs, REOs for sale, Unbelieveable | 15 comments

My high school baseball coach used to say,

“I don’t believe anything I hear, and only half of what I see!”

In our latest contest, readers submitted their guess at the highest bid + 5% buyer’s premium for this property in SE Carlsbad:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/06/03/carlsbad-reo-contest-2/

lamaca4

The auction included an outrageous set of conditions, which many thought would drive down the price to compensate.  They included:

  1. The 5% buyer’s premium tacked onto the highest bid.
  2. No showings.
  3. Tenant-occupied, and buyer was responsible for evicting.
  4. Cash only.
  5. No buyer’s agent commission paid.
  6. Not in the MLS.
  7. 5% deposit required upon winning.
  8. Reserve price.

They conducted the auction online, which gave participants the convenience of bidding from their couch at home. It should have allowed bidders the chance to double-check the comps as the auction wore on – because every time a new bid was made, they extended the ending by 1-2 minutes.

Those checking the comps would have seen that in the heat of the frenzy last year, three of this identical model sold for $638,000, $653,000 and $679,000.  Then in October this sale with nice view closed for $705,500, which was the highest price since May, 2007:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130050274-2704_La_Duela_Ln_Carlsbad_CA_92009

The bank foreclosed in 2011, and nobody wanted it then for $459,088.  The opening bid this week was $325,000, and once the auction started the initial bid increment was $25,000.

Most of our readers guessed it would sell in the $400,000s, which would be an adequate buffer to evict and remodel.

Look what happened today:

lamaca42

AND IT DIDN’T HIT THE RESERVE PRICE!!!!!!

Somebody was willing to pay almost $200,000 more than the bank didn’t get in 2011, and that wasn’t enough to reach the reserve price?  Hopefully the bank will come to their senses and reconsider before that bidder changes their mind.  Counting the 5% buyer’s premium, the highest bid was $678,038!

Our closest and winning guess was $568,050, and submitted by blucore – congratulations!

Inventory Watch

by | Jun 9, 2014 | Inventory

The inventory is creeping up and asking prices are softening:

SD inventory and prices June 9

North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)

The UNDER-$800,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
95
$376/sf
47
1,988sf
December 2
79
$371/sf
50
2,047sf
December 9
72
$383/sf
43
1,954sf
December 16
81
$378/sf
42
1,948sf
December 23
77
$374/sf
49
1,937sf
December 30
76
$373/sf
51
1,950sf
January 6
74
$370/sf
49
1,995sf
January 13
71
$381/sf
44
1,921sf
January 20
72
$384/sf
41
1,877sf
January 27
75
$399/sf
40
1,891sf
February 3
78
$409/sf
41
1,876sf
February 10
82
$395/sf
38
1,927sf
February 17
85
$387/sf
35
1,929sf
February 24
90
$383/sf
37
2,008sf
March 3
82
$397/sf
39
1,942sf
March 10
88
$377/sf
37
2,008sf
March 17
89
$366/sf
34
2,038sf
March 24
79
$369/sf
34
2,031sf
March 31
78
$367/sf
39
2,069sf
April 7
87
$373/sf
32
2,054sf
April 14
97
$380/sf
31
2,000sf
April 21
87
$377/sf
32
2,062sf
April 28
107
$379/sf
29
2,044sf
May 5
114
$376/sf
27
2,046sf
May 12
108
$385/sf
31
2,012sf
May 19
107
$385/sf
0
0sf
May 26
105
$375/sf
34
0sf
Jun 2
102
$376/sf
36
0sf
Jun 9
102
$377/sf
37
0sf

The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
DOM
Avg SF
November 25
245
$448/sf
61
2,856sf
December 2
239
$448/sf
64
2,851sf
December 9
226
$461/sf
65
2,812sf
December 16
211
$464/sf
66
2,794sf
December 23
197
$453/sf
73
2,813sf
December 30
173
$450/sf
78
2,821sf
January 6
170
$470/sf
65
2,757sf
January 13
168
$463/sf
59
2,764sf
January 20
174
$444/sf
51
2,882sf
January 27
166
$435/sf
52
2,902sf
February 3
165
$441/sf
53
2,857sf
February 10
175
$443/sf
51
2,852sf
February 17
180
$447/sf
50
2,803sf
February 24
188
$438/sf
44
2,846sf
March 3
202
$421/sf
44
2,936sf
March 10
215
$431/sf
41
2,854sf
March 17
223
$421/sf
42
2,918sf
March 24
217
$419/sf
42
2,941sf
March 31
223
$425/sf
44
2,887sf
April 7
224
$428/sf
44
2,881sf
April 14
233
$429/sf
44
2,892sf
April 21
237
$432/sf
44
2,894sf
April 28
240
$430/sf
45
2,848sf
May 5
272
$434/sf
42
2,838sf
May 12
269
$438/sf
42
2,831sf
May 19
275
$436/sf
0
0sf
May 26
276
$429/sf
49
0sf
Jun 2
270
$431/sf
50
0sf
Jun 9
288
$435/sf
50
0sf

(more…)

ZRT and the Future

by | Jun 9, 2014 | Jim's Take on the Market, The Future | 2 comments

ZRT

The ‘battle’ between real estate portals has been mostly uneventful, with Zillow taking the rest to the woodshed every quarter.  Now Trulia has resorted to scraping listings from realtor websites directly.

This is where I first saw it on twitter:

Or you can see the whole conversation here:

https://twitter.com/KrisBerg

Is Trulia desperate enough to be taking listings from individual realtor websites who have opted out?  They risk alienating the remaining realtors that do send them listings!

All of the Big Three have been bumping their prices lately too, which isn’t exactly sensitive to the drop in volume/income that we’ve been experiencing lately.

The whole house of cards could come tumbling down for the same reason.

If realtors just stop advertising on ZRT, the third-party portal game would be over.  It probably won’t happen due to indignation about inaccurate data – instead, it will be because the Big 3 could literally price themselves out of the market:

From:

http://www.inman.com/2014/06/02/crye-leike-expands-zillow-trulia-blackout-zone-to-2-more-markets/

Crye-Leike doesn’t attribute that success solely to limited syndication, Brown said. “But it tells us our decision wasn’t hasty, it wasn’t radical, it was prudent,” he said.

Inaccurate listing data hurts the Crye-Leike brand, Brown said.

The decision was also fueled by reports from Crye-Leike agents that the cost of advertising on Zillow and Trulia had gone up dramatically.

Although the brokerage still sends all of its listings to realtor.com and Homes.com, it is monitoring those sites, he said — particularly realtor.com, which is planning to raise prices on at least one of its ad products.

Yes, the inaccurate data is a rallying cry.  But the portals’ advertising rates are already high, and rising – and it feels like extortion.  When the results are lukewarm, it wouldn’t take much for realtors to quit altogether and blame rising costs.

If a new portal promoted a better/cheaper website, or the market got soft(er), then the ZRT troika could find themselves wondering what happened.

10662 Canyon Lake, Scripps Ranch

by | Jun 6, 2014 | One-Story, Why You Should List With Jim | 3 comments

My new listing on the westside of Scripps Ranch, where you are conveniently located just 5 minutes to schools and freeway, and can walk to coffee and grocery!  Open Saturday and Sunday, June 7 & 8 from noon to 3pm!

4 br/2 ba, 1,811 sf built in 1972 on a secluded 11,000sf lot for only $699,000:

2014-06-07 16.29.39

2014-06-07 15.17.07

Canyon lake

2014-06-08 13.49.12

One-story floor plan with tile roof, vinyl windows, renovated kitchen and baths, new scraped hardwood floors, double french doors, central A/C, high ceilings and open floor plan.  No HOA or Mello-Roos!  The house next door just sold for about the same money and this is superior – we want to sell now!

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10662-Canyon-Lake-Dr-San-Diego-CA-92131/16866617_zpid/

canyon lake map1

I will be there both days, and Kayla will join me on Sunday!

More on NSDCC May Sales

by | Jun 6, 2014 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, Sales and Price Check, Why You Should List With Jim

sales drop first

Here’s more data on last month’s detached-home sales around North SD County’s coastal region.

The new MLS doesn’t have the same statistics available, but for some reason it is crazy about reporting the sales volume everywhere, for which the average realtor has no use.

But comparing the sales volume does help show why this year feels so much different than last year for realtors, and others in the business whose income is based on a percentage.  Even though yesterday’s average pricing was up 13% year-over-year, the overall sales volume was down 33% from May, 2013:

NSDCC May Sales:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Total Sales Volume
2010
249
$800,000
$254,103,668
2011
243
$850,000
$276,818,522
2012
289
$821,000
$320,086,154
2013
362
$943,500
$441,162,967
2014
251
$950,000
$296,845,249

The market has shifted from distressed properties to a Make-Me-Move environment, which buyers were willing to endure last year when prices AND rates were substantially less.

The number of new listings this year is about 4% fewer than last year, but as you can tell by the drop in sales – it is different now.  Only the sellers who are willing to offer an attractive value are selling. Get good help!

NSDCC May Sales & Pricing

by | Jun 5, 2014 | Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

carlsbad

Earlier in the year the NSDCC averages were touching $500/sf, but April finished at $448/sf.

It looks like the typical number of sales in May should be in the mid-200s, and last year’s 362 sales was a sign of how wild the frenzy was in early-2013.

NSDCC May Sales:

Year
# of Sales
Avg $/sf
Avg DOM
2010
249
$388/sf
69
2011
243
$383/sf
71
2012
289
$380/sf
75
2013
362
$416/sf
42
2014
250
$469/sf
39

If it weren’t for the short-sale fraud and those blog guys talking smack, the average pricing might have started rising in 2011 and 2012 – which would have mellowed the 23% increase over the last 24 months.

Del Mar Tester

by | Jun 4, 2014 | Bubbleinfo TV, Del Mar

lb

Here’s an interesting case study.

This is the 10th cheapest of 77 houses for sale in Del Mar.  It is a single-level house on a good culdesac with a big yard – probably the three best features you can have when it comes to selling today.  It’s over the hump and in a totally different area, but the house on the corner of Via Grimaldi and Via Latina just went pending yesterday, listed for $3,250,000 – and it looks like it is about 1,000 feet away on the map.

But the listing agent confirmed today that this house is still for sale, so I told him I’d give him some extra exposure here:

P.S. The Bernardo Fire was started accidentally – here is the link:

http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/New-Details-Bernardo-Fire-Cause-MAST-Hillside-Excavating-261758001.html

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