‘Coming Soon’ Demonstration

I’ve never been a believer in the Coming Soon concept, because it’s not in the best interest of the seller or buyer.  It erodes the urgency that sellers enjoy as a hot new listing that just hit the MLS, and buyers can’t buy it today – at least that is how it is being presented, as a pre-marketing strategy.

It is the same as when a listing agent inputs a property on the MLS but won’t allow showings for a week or two.  By the time that happens, you’ve been forgotten.

But I had a chance to test drive it this weekend, so I gave it a spin.  The ‘Coming Soon’ feature is four days old, and there are only five listings in SD County utilizing the opportunity – and most of them are waiting weeks before MLS input:

coming soon SD

I prefer to MLS-input the same day that the home can be shown, so hot buyers can rush right over.  We had already planned to wait until after Father’s Day to allow for some extra spruce-up, so Kalpati will be on the MLS tomorrow.

But because this new Zillow feature could become popular, I initiated the “Coming Soon’ feature late Saturday afternoon to test it out – figuring that anyone who responds won’t want to see it until after Father’s Day anyway.

Here were the results for the first 24 hours (Father’s Day):

coming soon 1

One person contacted me through the Zillow website for more information.  If the offering was a 3,000sf house in Carmel Valley for less than $1,000,000, the responses would probably have been substantially better.  A red-hot listing will have buyers demanding to see it, and wanting to make offers in the first few days.  Will those agents wait the full 30 days and then insist on MLS-input so the seller receives maximum exposure?

Presuming that their stats are accurate, this demonstration helps show how powerful the Zillow machine can be.  So far, they only want to capitalize by selling advertising to realtors so we can take advantage.  What we do with it will be left up to each agent, and you can’t help but get the feeling that many listings may never make it to the MLS.

The industry is on a crash course with single agency, and/or transaction brokerage, like they have in Colorado.  This describes their definitions of brokerage relationships, and includes a link to a pdf that has full descriptions:

http://cdn.colorado.gov/cs/Satellite/DORA-DRE/CBON/DORA/1251627670231

The rest of us should admit it, and properly disclose to consumers.

The Zillow Surrender

It was about a month ago that N.A.R. came out publicly and said that they don’t have a position on pocket listings.

Boom – Zillow jumps at the opportunity, and now here we are:

http://www.inman.com/2014/06/11/zillow-launches-coming-soon-feature-to-site/

http://www.inman.com/2014/06/13/zillow-wants-to-co-opt-pocket-listings/

It won’t change the world in one day, but it’s the next step of many for Zillow in their quest to take over the real estate world as we know it.

Agents are complaining, but Zillow won’t back down like Redfin did.  They are perfectly positioned on the outside, and don’t have to cater to agents. Heck, they are dictating to agents how the business will transpire from now on.

Last July, I asked Spencer if Zillow intends to be a national MLS  – see his response at the 5:40-min mark:

What does it mean for the future?

We’re heading for single agency, and nothing is going to stop it.  The one-agent model is not in the buyer’s or seller’s best interest, but Zillow doesn’t care about that – they only want eyeballs on their website.  They will spin the pocket listings as a good thing, and stay just high enough above the fray that they won’t be involved in how it works on the street.  It will be up to the agents to determine the ethics, and we know how that will turn out.

Will there be any consumer uprising? No, they won’t know the difference, and will believe it when Zillow declares pocket listings as a solution to paying those outrageous 6% fees.

Will agents object? Nope.

You haven’t yet, and now it’s too late.

There are 1,052,143 dues-paying members in the National Association of Realtors.  How many of you have gotten involved in the industry? How many have contributed by at least creating a blog? How many have even commented on a blog?

Realtors have idly stood by and allowed realtor.com to get steamrolled by Zillow and Trulia. How much longer will it be before Zillow is offering real estate specialists to assist consumers with buying and selling?  I’m guessing they will do it by the end of the year.

Agents – you have yourself to blame.  You refuse to get involved, you won’t stand up and object about the shady business practices happening all around you, and you hope somebody else takes care of Zillow so you can close just enough sales to get by for another year.

Hear this: Zillow is running you out of the business.

You probably got into the business during the Live and Let Live era, but that was long ago.  Now it is dog eat dog, and Zillow will be is eating realtors for lunch.

The sales volume is going to stay low, and there isn’t enough business for everyone.  Before you waste $59 on another box of business cards, instead, don’t bother – just quit instead.  Refer your clients to me and I’ll send you a little referral fee.

It’s inevitable – isn’t it?

Frenzy Addicts

Now the red team is drinking the ivory tower kool-aid too.

Here is their latest post, with the secondary headline that reads – Recovery Fueled by Investors is Stalled Until Traditional Homebuyers Step Up:

http://www.redfin.com/research/reports/real-time-price-tracker/2014/price-tracker-may-2014.html

They call this “the most disappointing metric of the month”:

redteam disappointed

Maybe it’s because I’m such an optimist, but I am happy to see sales this high – heck, with the rapid rise in prices, sales could be a lot worse.

Buyers are being misled to think it is disappointing to not be at frenzy levels.

This year our local sales around the San Diego north county coastal region have been in line with 2010/2011 levels, which should be good enough, considering how much higher prices are:

graph (44)

We know that sales are the precursor to the market’s direction, and as long as they stay relatively stable and similar to previous years, pricing might hold.

But the average pricing has been a bit erratic so far in 2014:

graph (45)

Buyers who read the mass media are starting to believe the market is ‘disappointing’, when really it’s been terrific for a post-frenzy period.  In most areas, we are at record prices and sales are holding up!

SD County Sales & Pricing

may

Two things you don’t hear when ‘analysts’ are describing 2014 home sales:

1. We are comparing Y-o-Y numbers to one of the hottest frenzies of all-time.

2. Sales are down because sellers are asking too much.

Instead, we get this explanation below: We have higher inventory, but supply falls short of demand so we have lower sales. (?)

From DQ:

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2014/News/California/Southern-CA/RRSCA140611.aspx

La Jolla, CA—Southern California home sales lost momentum in May, falling from both April and a year earlier as investor demand fell and buyers continued to face inventory, affordability and credit constraints. Prices climbed again but at roughly half the year-ago pace, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 19,556 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 2.3 percent from 20,008 sales in April, and down 15.1 percent from 23,034 sales in May last year, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.

On average, sales have increased 5.8 percent between April and May since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. Sales have fallen on a year-over-year basis for eight consecutive months. May sales have ranged from a low of 16,917 in May 2008 to a high of 35,557 in May 2005. Last month’s sales were 23.0 percent below the May average of 25,393 sales.

“We expected rising prices to unlock more inventory this spring and that’s happened. But the supply of homes for sale still falls short of demand in many markets, contributing to a rise in prices and a below-average sales pace. The drop in affordability has also hampered activity, helping to explain how sales could be lower now even though today’s inventory is higher than a year ago. The recent dip in mortgage rates will help fuel demand, adding pressure to home prices. But the sort of price spikes we saw this time last year – annual gains of 20 percent or more – are less likely today given affordability constraints, higher inventory and the drop-off in investor purchases,” said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst.

Stevie Ray Vaughan

This was the show that put Stevie Ray Vaughan on the map – the Montreux Jazz Festival, 1982 – though at the time it seemed like a strange mix. From wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stevie_Ray_Vaughan

Although popular in Texas at the time, Double Trouble failed to gain national attention. The group’s luck progressed when record producer Jerry Wexler recommended them to Claude Nobs, organizer of the Montreux Jazz Festival. He insisted that the festival’s blues night would be great with Vaughan, whom he called “a jewel, one of those rarities who comes along once in a lifetime”, and Nobs agreed to book Double Trouble on July 17.

Vaughan opened with a medley arrangement of Freddie King’s song “Hide Away” and his own fast instrumental composition, “Rude Mood”. Double Trouble went on to perform renditions of Larry Davis’ “Texas Flood”, Hound Dog Taylor’s “Give Me Back My Wig”, and Albert Collins’ “Collins Shuffle”, as well as three original compositions: “Pride and Joy”, “Love Struck Baby”, and “Dirty Pool”. The set ended with boos from the audience.People’s James McBride wrote:

“He seemed to come out of nowhere, a Zorro-type figure in a riverboat gambler’s hat, roaring into the ’82 Montreux festival with a ’59 Stratocaster at his hip and two flame-throwing sidekicks he called Double Trouble. He had no album, no record contract, no name, but he reduced the stage to a pile of smoking cinders and, afterward, everyone wanted to know who he was.”

According to road manager Don Opperman: “The way I remember it, the ‘ooos’ and the ‘boos’ were mixed together, but Stevie was pretty disappointed. Stevie [had] just handed me his guitar and walked off stage, and I’m like, ‘Are you coming back?’ There was a doorway back there; the audience couldn’t see the guys, but I could. He went back to the dressing room with his head in his hands. I went back there finally, and that was the end of the show.”According to Vaughan: “It wasn’t the whole crowd [that booed]. It was just a few people sitting right up front. The room there was built for acoustic jazz. When five or six people boo, wow. It sounds like the whole world hates you. They thought we were too loud, but shoot, I had four army blankets folded over my amp, and the volume level was on 2. I’m used to playin’ on 10!” The performance was filmed and later released on DVD in September 2004.

On the following night, Double Trouble was booked in the lounge of the Montreux Casino, with Jackson Browne in attendance. Browne jammed with Double Trouble until the early morning hours and offered them free use of his personal recording studio in downtown Los Angeles. In late November, the band accepted his offer and recorded ten songs in two days. While they were in the studio, Vaughan received a telephone call from musician David Bowie, who met him after the Montreux performance, and he invited him to participate in a recording session for his next studio album, Let’s Dance. In January 1983, Vaughan recorded guitar on six of the album’s eight songs, including the title track and “China Girl”. The album was released on April 14, 1983 and sold over three times as many copies as Bowie’s previous album.

Our Coastal Future?

In this image taken from Tuesday, June 10, 2014 video provided by WFAA-TV, a luxury house teeters on a cliff about 75 feet above Lake Whitney in Whitney, Texas. WFAA-TV reported Wednesday, June 11, 2014 that the house has been condemned and the owners evacuated about two weeks ago. Photo: WFAA.com, AP / WFAA.com

Hat tip to daytrip for sending in this cliff-front house on the edge – hopefully someone has a camera on this 24/7!

A luxury house in Texas, perched on a cliff with a spectacular view of Lake Whitney, has started falling into the water. The edge of the 4,000-square-foot  home was dangling about 75 feet above the rocky shoreline after part of it had  already broken off.

Soil and other debris could be seen falling occasionally from the foundation of the home at the 0.46-min mark.

A small sign  reading “Extreme danger. Stay off premises” was placed in the front yard as neighbors looked on helplessly.

SD Realtor Population

The new MLS has its faults, but one new benefit is a ‘Count’ button, which allows it to search larger sets of data and give us a total number.

According to the SDAR website, in 1985 there were 3,251 agents in the San Diego Association of Realtors (the largest of 3 associations in the county today).

Today’s counts:

17,955 licensed agents paying dues for MLS access (you can specify the members when searching, and non-MLS agents and affiliates were omitted).

13,521 houses, condos, and mobile homes sold in San Diego County in the first five months of 2014!

If 20% of the agents are doing 80% of the sales, that’s a lot of realtors not selling!  The public should be aware, and investigate their choices carefully.

With no obvious attempts being made from within the industry to change anything, it’s just a matter of time before an outsider gets a foothold, and possibly change the business forever.

It makes you wonder who it will be.  Any big retailer could bundle up a package of services and include real estate sales too – this was an interesting article:

http://techcrunch.com/2014/06/10/amazon-said-to-start-selling-babysitting-and-other-home-services-later-this-year/

Get good help!

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