by Jim the Realtor | May 9, 2014 | Jim's Take on the Market |
Thanks to the several people who sent in links to the Realty Trac story yesterday about cash buyers accounting for 43% of homes sales in the first quarter of 2014 – and some areas were 50% to 60% cash:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101654929
Of the 1Q14 detached-home sales in San Diego County, 21% of them were cash buys, and NSDCC had 28% cash sales.
Who and why?
A. People are sick of payments, especially baby boomers who think about taking a 30-year mortgage and having payments into their 80s or 90s.
B. People are making cash offers to win bidding wars.
C. Investors are buying rental properties for long-term hold, and get a better return than if they left money in the bank.
D. Parents are buying houses for their kids.
E. Foreigners are flush after the exchange rate.
F. Getting a mortgage can be messy.
G. Paying cash is sexy.
Get used to Big Cash floating around the real estate market – it’s here to stay, and if the stock market stumbles, then we should see even more money flow into real estate. It’s like everything else the boomers have screwed up for future generations – we elbow our way in front of younger folks, run up the prices, and then hope the kids can finance the rest.
by Jim the Realtor | May 8, 2014 | Bubbleinfo TV, Local Flavor
A pan of the downtown San Diego area, with a suicide view at the end:
by Jim the Realtor | May 8, 2014 | Ethics, Listing Agent Practices, Market Buzz
From the San Jose Mercury News:
http://www.mercurynews.com/my-town/ci_25718492/off-mls-listings-debated-at-silicon-valley-realtors
An excerpt:
According to MLS Listings, off-MLS activity in the counties of San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, San Benito and Monterey, the five-county area the MLS serves, represented 21 percent of total home sales in 2013, up from 15 percent in 2012, and 12 percent in 2011. By sales volume, this accounted for $4.8 billion of the 2013 market share in the five-county area.
Harrison noted MLS Listings Inc. is, in fact, “the largest private listings club in Northern California,” with more than 16,000 subscribers/members who are qualified licensed brokers/agents and abide by rules of the National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors. The MLS has agreements with other California MLSes to share property and listing information representing about 21 counties and more than 65,000 subscribers, so agents’ listings get the best exposure.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | May 8, 2014 | Contests |
The contest for Padres tickets is complete – and it’s a tie!
We closed escrow yesterday at $710,000 cash. (list price was $699,000)
Raymond Byrnes guessed $709,500 and michael call guessed $710,500 – so you both win a set of four Padres tickets!
I think the reasons it didn’t go higher were that we were already listed at the very top of the range, and the house was too small for most people. The third bedroom had a pair of doors on one side, and a single door or another – so the house was really a 2-bedroom plus den, and 1,424sf. A single person bought it and paid cash.
See all the guesses in the comment section – thanks for playing!
by Jim the Realtor | May 7, 2014 | Bubbleinfo TV, Jim's Take on the Market |
The main reason I stay so positive about the market is because there are plenty of buyers. The lively demand creates a pure market, almost entirely based on price – but buyers are more critical:
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by Jim the Realtor | May 7, 2014 | Jim's Take on the Market, Sales and Price Check |
The origins of the frenzy began when rates slipped under 4.0% at the end of 2011, and you can see how sales started popping in April, 2012:
But now that both rates and prices are finding some equilibrium, the sales count is looking more like a regular April, than a frenzied April:
| Year |
# of Sales |
Avg. $/sf |
Avg. DOM |
SP/LP |
| 2010 |
230 |
$375/sf |
68 |
96% |
| 2011 |
234 |
$372/sf |
76 |
95% |
| 2012 |
272 |
$365/sf |
77 |
96% |
| 2013 |
303 |
$420/sf |
36 |
98% |
| 2014 |
248 |
$451/sf |
45 |
97% |
The overall pricing trend has been positive….except for those who will insist that a month-over-month decline is the end of the world:
If our April results are similar to what’s happening elsewhere, then the media is going to have a field day. But it is merely the market finding it’s way in the post-frenzy era – look at the big swings in pricing over the last 12 months.
Though the ivory-tower types will be quick to label events as good or bad, copy each other’s guesses about the causes and leave it at that, we know it’s a healthy sign when sellers have to be smart about pricing. Price will fix anything!
We’ve had 34 NSDCC closings so far in May, and they are averaging $470/sf. There is likely to be whipsaw pricing in the months ahead – get good help!
by Jim the Realtor | May 6, 2014 | Market Conditions, Realtor |
The two big corporate real estate entities, Reology and Berkshire Hathaway, lost money in the first quarter, and both lamented about first-time buyers:
Ron Peltier, chief executive of HomeServices of America Inc, said “our industry is probably in the sixth inning of a nine-inning recovery,” with very strong activity in coastal markets such as Miami, Boston, New York and Silicon Valley, and in the market for higher-end homes across the country.
“The single most-challenged sector of the market is the first-time home buyer,” he said. “Historically, they make up 40 percent of the existing home market. In the last 18 months to two years, it has been 27 to 28 percent. Twelve percent of the market has been missing. It’s troubling.” Peltier spoke in an interview on the sidelines of Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting in Omaha, Nebraska.
In the first quarter, Berkshire reported a $24 million pre-tax loss from “real estate brokerage and other” items within Berkshire Hathaway Energy, as spending rose on employment and marketing.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/sns-rt-us-berkshirehathaway-annualmeeting-homeservices-20140503,0,498751.story
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | May 5, 2014 | Bubbleinfo TV, Carmel Valley, View |
It is bad enough that the demand for new homes in CV is off the charts, but look how close the houses are for the money – up to $1.35 million, and no front yard landscaping either!
by Jim the Realtor | May 5, 2014 | Flips |
Hat tip to reader Just Some Guy for sending in this article:
http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/May/03/american-coastal-real-estate-investor-homes/?#article-copy
With home values recovering from the Great Recession and the fix-and-flip market drying up, what’s a real-estate investor to do?
In Southern California, American Coastal Properties is going for the high end.
Instead of focusing on buying bank-owned homes from auction, fixing them and selling them for a gain, the five-partner group formed in 2012 buys older homes in affluent areas like La Jolla, Del Mar and Solana Beach, guts them, adds square footage and hopes to sell them for a gain. It’s a risky business that can reap hundreds of thousands of dollars in rewards, but also can bring unwelcome surprises that take a chunk out of any profit.
(more…)
by Jim the Realtor | May 5, 2014 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market
If this two-week surge in new listings continue, we could see the sales momentum pick up – but only if the price is right:
North SD County’s Coastal Region (La Jolla-to-Carlsbad)
The UNDER-$800,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
| November 25 |
95 |
$376/sf |
47 |
1,988sf |
| December 2 |
79 |
$371/sf |
50 |
2,047sf |
| December 9 |
72 |
$383/sf |
43 |
1,954sf |
| December 16 |
81 |
$378/sf |
42 |
1,948sf |
| December 23 |
77 |
$374/sf |
49 |
1,937sf |
| December 30 |
76 |
$373/sf |
51 |
1,950sf |
| January 6 |
74 |
$370/sf |
49 |
1,995sf |
| January 13 |
71 |
$381/sf |
44 |
1,921sf |
| January 20 |
72 |
$384/sf |
41 |
1,877sf |
| January 27 |
75 |
$399/sf |
40 |
1,891sf |
| February 3 |
78 |
$409/sf |
41 |
1,876sf |
| February 10 |
82 |
$395/sf |
38 |
1,927sf |
| February 17 |
85 |
$387/sf |
35 |
1,929sf |
| February 24 |
90 |
$383/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
| March 3 |
82 |
$397/sf |
39 |
1,942sf |
| March 10 |
88 |
$377/sf |
37 |
2,008sf |
| March 17 |
89 |
$366/sf |
34 |
2,038sf |
| March 24 |
79 |
$369/sf |
34 |
2,031sf |
| March 31 |
78 |
$367/sf |
39 |
2,069sf |
| April 7 |
87 |
$373/sf |
32 |
2,054sf |
| April 14 |
97 |
$380/sf |
31 |
2,000sf |
| April 21 |
87 |
$377/sf |
32 |
2,062sf |
| April 28 |
107 |
$379/sf |
29 |
2,044sf |
| May 5 |
114 |
$376/sf |
27 |
2,046sf |
The $800,000 – $1,400,000 Market:
| Date |
NSDCC Active Listings |
Avg. LP/sf |
DOM |
Avg SF |
| November 25 |
245 |
$448/sf |
61 |
2,856sf |
| December 2 |
239 |
$448/sf |
64 |
2,851sf |
| December 9 |
226 |
$461/sf |
65 |
2,812sf |
| December 16 |
211 |
$464/sf |
66 |
2,794sf |
| December 23 |
197 |
$453/sf |
73 |
2,813sf |
| December 30 |
173 |
$450/sf |
78 |
2,821sf |
| January 6 |
170 |
$470/sf |
65 |
2,757sf |
| January 13 |
168 |
$463/sf |
59 |
2,764sf |
| January 20 |
174 |
$444/sf |
51 |
2,882sf |
| January 27 |
166 |
$435/sf |
52 |
2,902sf |
| February 3 |
165 |
$441/sf |
53 |
2,857sf |
| February 10 |
175 |
$443/sf |
51 |
2,852sf |
| February 17 |
180 |
$447/sf |
50 |
2,803sf |
| February 24 |
188 |
$438/sf |
44 |
2,846sf |
| March 3 |
202 |
$421/sf |
44 |
2,936sf |
| March 10 |
215 |
$431/sf |
41 |
2,854sf |
| March 17 |
223 |
$421/sf |
42 |
2,918sf |
| March 24 |
217 |
$419/sf |
42 |
2,941sf |
| March 31 |
223 |
$425/sf |
44 |
2,887sf |
| April 7 |
224 |
$428/sf |
44 |
2,881sf |
| April 14 |
233 |
$429/sf |
44 |
2,892sf |
| April 21 |
237 |
$432/sf |
44 |
2,894sf |
| April 28 |
240 |
$430/sf |
45 |
2,848sf |
| May 5 |
272 |
$434/sf |
42 |
2,838sf |
(more…)
Thanks to the several people who sent in links to the Realty Trac story yesterday about cash buyers accounting for 43% of homes sales in the first quarter of 2014 – and some areas were 50% to 60% cash:
