The origins of the frenzy began when rates slipped under 4.0% at the end of 2011, and you can see how sales started popping in April, 2012:
But now that both rates and prices are finding some equilibrium, the sales count is looking more like a regular April, than a frenzied April:
| Year | ||||
| 2010 | ||||
| 2011 | ||||
| 2012 | ||||
| 2013 | ||||
| 2014 |
The overall pricing trend has been positive….except for those who will insist that a month-over-month decline is the end of the world:
If our April results are similar to what’s happening elsewhere, then the media is going to have a field day. But it is merely the market finding it’s way in the post-frenzy era – look at the big swings in pricing over the last 12 months.
Though the ivory-tower types will be quick to label events as good or bad, copy each other’s guesses about the causes and leave it at that, we know it’s a healthy sign when sellers have to be smart about pricing. Price will fix anything!
We’ve had 34 NSDCC closings so far in May, and they are averaging $470/sf. There is likely to be whipsaw pricing in the months ahead – get good help!
JtR. Thanks for all the work on constantly publishing the market stats! Not sure others would be interested in this, but I would love to see data from 2006 to 2014, as it would be interesting to see ‘bubble top’ through ‘global recession’ (say 2008), through now (or the last 5 years as you are displaying), due to ‘unique events/circumstances’ of the last 10 years. Keep up the good work!