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The origins of the frenzy began when rates slipped under 4.0% at the end of 2011, and you can see how sales started popping in April, 2012:

graph (42)

But now that both rates and prices are finding some equilibrium, the sales count is looking more like a regular April, than a frenzied April:

Year
# of Sales
Avg. $/sf
Avg. DOM
SP/LP
2010
230
$375/sf
68
96%
2011
234
$372/sf
76
95%
2012
272
$365/sf
77
96%
2013
303
$420/sf
36
98%
2014
248
$451/sf
45
97%

The overall pricing trend has been positive….except for those who will insist that a month-over-month decline is the end of the world:

graph (43)

If our April results are similar to what’s happening elsewhere, then the media is going to have a field day. But it is merely the market finding it’s way in the post-frenzy era – look at the big swings in pricing over the last 12 months.

Though the ivory-tower types will be quick to label events as good or bad, copy each other’s guesses about the causes and leave it at that, we know it’s a healthy sign when sellers have to be smart about pricing. Price will fix anything!

We’ve had 34 NSDCC closings so far in May, and they are averaging $470/sf.  There is likely to be whipsaw pricing in the months ahead – get good help!

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