Zestimates of Active Listings

There is a common belief that it takes longer to sell homes that are more expensive.

The statistics back it up too.

But the belief is a self-fulfilling prophecy that is executed by realtors and sellers every day. It’s hard enough to put an attractive price on a more-expensive custom home, and then sellers and listing agents can’t resist goosing their price by another 5% or so, just to make sure they don’t leave any money on the table.

It looks like Zillow is going to help bring an end to this sloppy practice.

We know that the zestimates are way wronger than they admit, especially with custom homes. Once a home hits the MLS, we also see them adjust the zestimate to within pennies of the list price – so they are unreliable at best, and fraudulent by most common standards.

But I’ve also noticed on this listing that the zestimate has been going down since we went for sale.

After a week on the market, the zestimate was down to $3,419,900 on Jan 22nd:

Then today the zestimate is even lower, and the spread between the views and the saves is getting larger because the highly-motivated buyers see it in the first few days and run up the count of saves:

Buyers have full access to all data now, and the longer a home is on the market, the less they will want to pay. If a recognized authority (in their mind) is also lowering their zestimate on the home publicly, it will fortify the buyers’ belief that they should offer less. Thanks Zillow!

I can’t change that belief – I’m just going to try and sell my listings early on!

Inventory Watch

In our previous reading last Monday, the pendings count had jumped 20% – and this week it popped another 15%! Today’s actual count of 140 pendings is now ahead of last year, which had an early start to the selling season!  At this point, this year looks the same!

This morning’s count of January listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad is 204, which means Joe has the contest for Padres tickets in the bag. Having slightly more inventory than last year should mean more sales!

(more…)

Happy Happy

I know San Diego-Carlsbad is on this list, but there are others. It’s a great time to move elsewhere!

Designed by Gallup senior scientist Dan Witters, the study established 15 metrics—from eating healthy and learning something new every day to civic engagement, financial security, vacation time, and even dental checkups—that signal happiness. The National Geographic Gallup Special/Blue Zones Index draws on nearly 250,000 interviews conducted with adults from 2014 to 2015 in 190 metropolitan areas across the U.S as part of the Gallup-Sharecare Well Being Index.

In happier places, locals smile and laugh more often, socialize several hours a day, have access to green spaces, and feel that they are making purposeful progress toward achieving life goals. For our index, it tracked factors that are statistically associated with doing well and feeling well; these include feeling secure, taking vacations, and having enough money to cover basic needs.

Link to NG article

NSDCC January Update

After a disappointing number of sales last month (87, the lowest monthly count ever), January is poised to reach 100+ sales. There are 128 houses in escrow today, and 39 of those were marked ‘pending’ prior to January 1st so probably 20+ of those stand a good chance of closing by the end of the month:

NSDCC Monthly Sales

Although the severe drop in sales recently can be attributed to higher mortgage rates, higher prices, etc., you can’t sell what’s not for sale:

NSDCC January Listings

With the number of listings up to 183 this month, we should reach the 205 listings we had last January. Will the last few people on our list still have a fighting chance, or should we hand the Padres tickets to Joe?

Here are the contestants:

Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January Listings

142 Anne M

157 Skip

160 doughboy

170 Dale

174 SurfRider

176 LifeIsRadInCbad

180 Kingside

188 Stephanie R.

189 Chris

190 Tom

192 Sara G.

196 Derek

200 Curtis

208 Rob Dawg

210 Bode

213 Shadash

217 Nick

222 Majeed

223 Joe

With slightly more inventory, similar pricing and rates, and pent-up everything, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot as it was last year. This week, I had buyers survive an 8-offer bidding war and win by submitting the now-customary $100,000+ over the list price, and there have been crazier sales already:

Portal Wars

As a battle of words and philosophies rages between major real estate portals, Compass CEO Robert Reffkin on Thursday jumped into the fray and threw support behind the newest entrant in the space, Homes.com.

Reffkin was asked about Homes.com’s “your listing, your lead” strategy that aims to direct consumers to listing agents, and about Andy Florance, CEO of Homes.com parent CoStar. “Do you agree with him?”

“Yes,” Reffkin simply replied.

Our New Listing in Sorrento Valley

11043 Cedarcrest Way, San Diego, 92121

3 br + den/2.5 ba, 2,000sf

YB: 2000

Lot size = 6,163sf

HOA = $53/mo (no Mello-Roos)

LP = $1,450,000

Check out our new listing in the heart of Sorrento Valley! You’ll love this central location that allows for maximum convenience when getting around town – and be on a quiet and friendly culdesac! Three bedrooms plus den, remodeled primary bath, new appliances, new carpet and paint, high ceilings – light & bright – plus a good-sized yard (with new sod) and two-car garage with third bay for storage! Wow – be close to everything here!

Open 12-3pm Saturday and Sunday, January 27 & 28

Here Comes Homes.com

Homes.com is making a run at Zillow and all other search portals. They are advertising 100 million users already, and they are displaying the listing agent’s phone number prominently on their properties for sale:

 

Zillow must have felt the pressure, and they are doing it too, although in a more subtle way because they still want you to contact their call center so they can control – and get paid from – the agent they desire:

This is will probably have more to do with the extinction of the buyer-agent than the lawsuits.

All anybody has to do is spend $100 million per year on advertisng to become a major player like like Zillow did, and homes.com is in a position to do it. Look for the homes.com ads during the Super Bowl!

https://www.homes.com/

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