I think we are in for several monumental changes in the market conditions next year.
Some will be quick to label it a simple change from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market and leave you hanging. But it is a description that needs more definition – specifically, what does that mean for the participants? Do buyers get a better price? Do sellers have to take less?
You better rely on a great agent to help you with those questions!
One change that will be more evident will be doom from the casual observers. The commentary from the cheap seats is already ramping up, and buyers and sellers need to decipher whether it has any relevance to their own situation.
This may be an accurate assessment….but it’s about Nashville, not here:
My prediction? The doomers will be back with a vengance in 2025, especially on social media.
They were vicious in the 2008-2012 era, and I’m sure it delayed home purchases for many potential buyers. Much of it was due to the unprecedented market conditions – foreclosures and short-sales everywhere, and the ez-qual/no-doc financing had been eliminated.
Because it’s been such a strong seller’s market since the pandemic, the basic inexperience with a surge in inventory will tempt buyers (and agents) to pause. The stronger the surge, the more likely the pause.
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings come to market in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
In past Januarys, the guesses spanned a reasonable range and usually the winner was somewhere in the middle of the pack. These were the guesses from last January:
Contest to Guess the Total Number of NSDCC January 2024 Listings
142 Anne M
157 Skip
160 doughboy
170 Dale
174 SurfRider
176 LifeIsRadInCbad
180 Kingside
188 Stephanie R.
189 Chris
190 Tom
192 Sara G.
196 Derek
200 Curtis
208 Rob Dawg
210 Bode
213 Shadash
217 Nick
222 Majeed
223Joe
The final count was 255 listings in January, 2024, which was 14% over the highest guess!
After January, the inventory continued to rise, and there were around +15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year, than there were in 2023.
I mentioned last January:
My theory is that 10% more inventory is easily absorbed and really won’t be that noticeable. It’s when the inventory is growing at 20% or more that buyers may wonder what’s going on – and be tempted to pause, and/or get more picky, if that is possible.
The way it’s going, the 2024 Selling Season should be as hot, or hotter than it was last year!
The +15% was about the ideal increase in inventory because sales were higher too. Will 2025 be the year that we find out how much is too much?
It’s going to be a wild and crazy season – and not just for the Padres!
Leave your guess any time, and officially this contest will begin the first week of the year.
The was the Inventory Watch report in mid-December last year:
Today’s report:
The NSDCC median list price today is $3,895,000. (It was higher than $4M until April 15th this year).
There are 22 houses for sale priced under $1,500,000 between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
The current inventory is 386 NSDCC active listings (+23% YoY) that are also very picked over.
There are 185 actives priced over $4,000,000, and their average list price is $11,164,026.
At this point, most everyone is in the wait-and-see mode for 2025, but I think I have another sale in me this year. Donna is feverishly preparing five homes for sale that will hit the open market in January and February. Instead of some holiday relaxing with family, we are in full-tilt boogie mode and pedaling as fast as we can – let’s go 2025!
Rates are in the spotlight again as 2025 approaches. That short-lived dip to two-year lows prompted renewed optimism for home buyers and bumped sales volume, then the rebound in October brought a reminder of unpredictability. Rates are likely to remain volatile throughout next year, say Zillow economists.
Read on for more about rates and four more predictions for 2025.
Housing market activity will pick up, home value growth will cool
“Buying a home in 2024 was surprisingly competitive given how high the affordability hurdle became,” says Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen. “More inventory should shake loose in 2025, giving buyers a bit more room to breathe.”
Expect to see more sales and only a modest 2.6% increase in home value growth in 2025, as the market slowly becomes unstuck. This is mainly because we expect more sellers to list next year. A steadier market could make for simpler pricing conversations with those seller clients.
Some markets are expected to outperform this forecast, such as Hartford, Connecticut (4.2% home value growth), Providence, Rhode Island (3.9% growth), and Miami (3.8% growth).
But markets like New Orleans (-3.8%) and San Francisco (-2.3%) are expected to see declines, while Austin is predicted to have minimal growth (0.4%).
Mortgage rates will remain volatile
Borrowing costs should ease in 2025, but as we saw in 2024, mortgage rates rarely do what’s expected of them. What’s more certain is that buyers should expect plenty of ups and downs throughout the year. Also expect sprints of refinancing — which can present conversation opportunities of their own — during the rate dips.
Buyer’s markets will spread to the Southwest
As of November 2024, a total of 25 major metro areas, mostly in the South and Southeast, were considered buyers markets, according toZillow’s Market Heat Index. Zillow predicts buyers markets will spread to the Southwest in 2025 as inventory continues to come unstuck in relatively affordable markets.
These buyers markets should see the greatest number of movers, while sellers will feel the heat of competition. But if mortgage rates fall more than expected, it dims the prospect that buyers markets will spread west. A significant mortgage rate dip would bring more buyers back to the market, again tilting negotiating power in favor of sellers.
More Americans will embrace small-home living
The pandemic-era need for more space is coming to an end. In 2025, buyers will increasingly embrace smaller homes as a more sustainable and affordable way to live.
The word “cozy” is appearing in more listings — 35% more in 2024 compared to 2023 — reflecting design trends that have shifted away from spacious open floor plans, toward more contained spaces that save both builders and buyers money.
John is talking about builders here but I couldn’t pass up his mention of last January and February being sensational, and then fizzling out. If rates start climbing again (and it was a bad week – see above), we could have a surge of new listings colliding with rising rates that together really scare off the buyers.
First, a look back
After more than a few rough spots in 2023, January and February of this year were nothing short of sensational. But that soon fizzled as mortgage rates regained their unwelcome upward momentum and sapped much of the wind out of the sails of the spring selling season. As Dillan said, “Once we got into those core spring selling season months—March, April, May—rates went up to 7%–7.5%,” and momentum slowed.
Part of this is the return of normal seasonality to the housing market. Cara highlighted this: “Seasonality has returned, and people have to accept that.” She noted that builders are learning to navigate a market where traditional patterns are re-emerging post-Covid, offering some stability amid uncertainty.
But that beginning-of-the-year head fake has possibly colored how we view the year. The housing market took every punch high rates had to offer yet was still standing by year’s end. That many see 2024 as a disappointment, then, seems unfair. Maybe LeBron cooled off after a monster first quarter, but he still wound up with a solid 25 points. (That’s two sports analogies in one bullet. Nice.)
Some things change, some things don’t
Though the Sunbelt and more affordable markets remain the growth loci, high-flying states like Florida and Texas have seen setbacks. Rising listings and new home inventory have softened sales in many markets in those states, even while other parts of the Southeast continue to thrive.
One thing that has not changed is the continuing dominance of larger builders. Jody called the growing market share of public builders—nearly half of all new home sales— “mind-boggling” (obviously, she hasn’t seen Blades of Glory). Access to capital and land, the ability to negotiate national contracts, and integrated information systems give bigger builders an edge.
Smaller private builders, though, are still in the game. They can carve out a niche with their local knowledge, long-term relationships, nimbleness in going after land, and sometimes partnering with bigger players. As Jody explained, “Private builders are often very well-connected locally.…They dominate specialty sites, like close-in transit-oriented locations, that public builders shy away from.”
If it is changing at all, affordability is another item that is trending for the worse. Home sales to first-time buyers are at record lows while rising prices and still-high mortgage rates don’t offer much hope for improvement. Affordability is something we are all keeping an eye on.
Not sure if you noticed, but we had an election
While there are some potential pluses with a new administration, like regulatory relief that could lower building costs or a friendlier development environment, uncertainties are looming over 2025. A couple of those stand out:
Threatened tariffs against Mexico, Canada, and China have the potential to reinflame inflation. High inflation means higher rates, which worsens affordability and makes builder buydowns more expensive—and more necessary.
Immigration restrictions would likely exacerbate labor shortages and raise labor costs. They could also deplete demand, particularly if there are restrictions on the H1B visas that many high-earning tech sector workers rely upon.
Though builders face these uncertainties, they have proven adept at figuring out ways to find buyers. With buydowns, more speculatively built homes to maintain absorption levels, and tapping into resale broker networks, builders have found ways to succeed. Success breeds optimism, and most builders forecast sustained growth for 2025.
For more and more people nearing or entering retirement, the South continues to be a draw, from Hot Springs, Arkansas, to Vero Beach, Florida, and plenty of zip codes in between. More American families have moved to this region than any other part of the country for the past decade, and that trend is expected to continue.
To identify the South’s best places to retire for 2024, Investopedia, a financial news and education website where I serve as Editor-in-Chief, partnered with Southern Living for the second year. We evaluated economic and livability metrics using data on housing prices, median income levels, and proximity to recreation and cultural activities, among other criteria. We interviewed locals, depended on the experience of Southern Living editors, and looked for spots where the quality of life is high.
Although our list contains just 10 locations, we know that there are many others in the region that warrant a mention. But when it comes to affordability and getting your money’s worth in retirement, this group gives you a great place to start. – Caleb Silver, Editor-in-Chief, Investopedia
Last Friday I had my nine reasons why inventory is going to surge in 2025, and it’s going to start up in January just like it did this year. It wasn’t a bad thing in 2024 because NSDCC sales have increased +6% year-over-year as the demand picked up some of the extra supply.
But as we saw in August, the demand has its limits, so any surge in supply in 2025 needs to be muted, and hopefully we’ll end up with about the same number of listings as we had in 2024 – and they just come earlier.
My nine categories are full of potential home sellers, and here’s #10 – covid buyers:
Younger Americans who bought homes during the COVID-19 pandemic could account for a surprisingly large share of home sellers in the coming year, as boomers who have owned their homes for decades mostly refuse to sell, a new survey finds.
Among current homeowners, nearly 1 in 5 say they plan to sell their home next year, according to the results released on Wednesday by Bright MLS. Although people who purchased their home in the past five years accounted for just 24% of all homeowners, they made up 32% of those who plan to sell their home in 2025.
Homeowners in their 30s and 40s will be the most active group of sellers in 2025, with 27% of homeowners aged 30 to 39 and 28% of homeowners aged 40 to 49 indicating they expect to sell in the coming year. By comparison, just 10% of older homeowners plan to sell.
“Record-low mortgage rates during the pandemic were a huge incentive for individuals and families to buy a home. Many of these buyers also have been able to quickly accumulate significant equity in their homes as home prices have escalated,” says Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist.
In November, national median list prices were up 37% from the same month five years ago, according to Realtor.com® economic research data.
“This wealth gain has created financial security for this group of homeowners, and is also allowing them to be move-up buyers even in today’s relatively high interest rate environment,” says Sturtevant.
The Realtor.com 2025 Housing Forecast notes that the market is shifting from a strong seller’s market to one in which buyers and sellers have more balanced market power.
“As a result, sellers will need to price carefully to attract buyers, especially in markets where affordability is an issue,” says Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale.
Hale adds that while there’s potential for a favorable market for sellers, “the overall landscape will depend largely on how economic conditions, interest rates, and housing supply evolve over the first few months of the year.”
The survey found that of homeowners in their 30s and 40s who are planning to move, 30% have a mortgage with an interest rate below 4% and more than two-thirds have a rate below 5%.
Mortgage rates are currently averaging 6.69%, and the Realtor.com economic research team forecasts they will continue to average above 6% through the end of 2025.
It means that many families who plan to move will do so regardless of the higher rates. The survey found that the traditional reasons of family and career were the main impetus for moving among younger homeowners who plan to sell.
Among homeowners in their 30s who plan to sell, 37% said it would be for job reasons and 34% cited family reasons, including marriage, children, divorce, and being closer to family.
For homeowners in their 40s, the priorities were reversed, with family changes cited as the most common reason for moving, at 44%, and career changes, at 26%.
Only about 6% of homeowners aged 60-plus said they were planning to sell their home in 2025, according to the survey.
To demonstrate further how the momentum is building, let’s look at SE Carlsbad.
4th Quarter SFR Closed Sales Between $2,000,000 and $3,000,000 in the 92009:
2023: 9
2024: 23
The optimism coming off the election helped, because ALL of these went pending since November 5th:
Only one had to take a real haircut on price – so far, two sold for full price and one sold over list!
If four of the pendings close this month, it will mean that the 4Q24 sales were 3x more than last year!
True, those could have been the last buyers ever for the 92009. But doesn’t there have to be potential buyers who decided to wait-and-see what 2025 has in store? I think so, and around the 92009, there will be a strong set of recent comps to support the valuations!
It reminds me of the 4th quarter of 2012 which snuck up on us because the short sales and foreclosures had not cleared yet. The NSDCC sales in 4Q12 were 44% higher than in the previous fourth quarter, and the following year, 2013, was the hottest year of the decade.
There are 20% more active listings, and 21% more pendings than we had last December – a monthly trend here in the fourth quarter of 2024 as the demand is keeping up with the supply.
Compare it to August when there were 26% more homes for sale year-over-year, but 17% fewer pendings!
The momentum going into the new year is terrific – it’s going to feel like the frenzy is back!
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
