The local market has been so hot since the election that the second-half losing streak may end prematurely, instead of declining through the rest of 2024.
I already said +5% for next year’s NSDCC appreciation, and all of it to be in the first quarter.
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
“New York once again reigns supreme as the fastest-growing housing market with annual returns over double the national average,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Two markets have dominated the top ranks with New York leading all markets the past six months and San Diego the six months prior. New York is the only market sitting at all-time highs and one of just three markets with gains on the month. Accounting for seasonal adjustments shows a broader rally across the country.
“Our National Index hit its 17th consecutive all-time high, and only two markets – Tampa and Cleveland – fell during the past month,” Luke continued. “The annual returns continue to post positive inflation-adjusted returns but are falling well short of the annualized gains experienced this decade. Markets in Florida and Arizona are rising, but not keeping up with inflation, and are well off the over 10% gains annually from 2020 to present. This has allowed other markets to catch up.
“With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement,” Luke continued. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.”
We’re going to start the new year with about 17% more houses for sale than we did in 2024. They will be joined by other failed listings from the past, and the inventory will most likely be rising faster than normal.
The first inventory count of 2024 was 255 homes for sale on January 2nd, and that number was 22% higher by the first week of February.
If the 2025 inventory grows about the same or a little faster, it means there will be 375-400 homes for sale by the end of February. It will be VERY EARLY in the season to have that many homes for sale already! We didn’t get to 400 until mid-May of this year!
Personally, though we are expecting a fast start in 2025, we aren’t going to publish our first home for sale until January 9th. It will begin a six-week stretch where we will be rolling out a new listing every Thursday!
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My Reasons Why NSDCC Inventory Will Surge in 2025:
1. Been trending that way – there has been 15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year than in 2023.
2. More listings have been cancelling this year than in Q423. They’ll be back!
3. Prop 19 was fun while it lasted – more of those who inherited a home will want to cash out.
4. Credit card debt is over $1 trillion for the first time. More current homeowners will lighten the load by paying off all their bills and downsize to cheaper home (probably out of state).
5. The affluent fleeing the country – if you have nothing tying you down here, then there are other choices.
6. The 5th anniversary of Covid is a few months away. Those who put off moving can go ahead now!
7. California politics drives people away. Gav’s $25 million to fight Trump? Might be the last straw for some.
8. I don’t have the statistics but more baby boomers should be shuffling off this mortal coil.
9. We’re all older – if you’re going to move, do it while you still can, physically!
10. Covid buyers with life changes – Flush with equity, they can sell and buy a better house.
My good friend Kerri Klein called to alert me to this book, which was written by a local realtor who worked at Jelley & Co. in Del Mar. The names are changed to protect the guilty, but it’s easy to figure them out.
I’m only 75 pages into it, but it is great reading for those who remember.
We worked for Patti Jelley in the La Jolla office, while Joe Jelley ran the legendary flagship office next to Bully’s in the heart of Del Mar. Joe is still with us at 87 years old and living in Del Mar!
My best memory was when a couple of big-ish sales pushed me onto the leaderboard in late 1986.
Joe gathered us around for an end-of-year awards ceremony, and he had made a deal with a local furrier. My third-place finish was enough to win an award – a fur made of possum! Thanks Joe!
In spite of the most controversial election in the history of America – one that could have been much more distracting – the NSDCC sales in the second half of 2024 were phenomenal.
The number of second-half sales rose 13% year-over-year, and the median sales price was 8% higher!
Now if mortgage rates settle down a little and there isn’t any economic or political chaos over the next few months, the prospects for a fantastic 2025 look good!
Do buyers need to wait until 2025, or are there some deals to be had now?
I have some unfinished business left in La Costa that buyers in search of a project should consider.
It’s a home that needs major updating to become a modern custom golf estate, but we have it priced in. Thelast sale nearby was in July for $2,350,000 for 2,432sf that was right on the street (not directly on the golf course like my listing is). We are 2,887sf of single-level living on a 9,800sf lot with 82-feet of golf course frontage for just $1,995,000!
We’ve had lookers and one low offer so we’re still in the hunt. Come by 12-2pm on Saturday!
I keep adding and subtracting photos in the MLS, and refreshing the remarks too:
Oh geez, did Jim say something about prices going down?
Yes, and isn’t it inevitable in areas where there is more supply than demand?
Sure, we can always reflect on Rancho Santa Fe where having your home languish on the market every year is a rite of passage. Somebody will come along some day, won’t they?
Bill is one of the OGs from 2005 and he is more analytical than me. He is giving us a formula; when the months’ supply gets over 5, prices might decline:
The NSDCC is safely around a 3-month supply currently. We’ll see where it is in February and March!
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
