Inventory Watch

by | Dec 30, 2024 | 2025, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge | 8 comments

We’re going to start the new year with about 17% more houses for sale than we did in 2024. They will be joined by other failed listings from the past, and the inventory will most likely be rising faster than normal.

The first inventory count of 2024 was 255 homes for sale on January 2nd, and that number was 22% higher by the first week of February.

If the 2025 inventory grows about the same or a little faster, it means there will be 375-400 homes for sale by the end of February. It will be VERY EARLY in the season to have that many homes for sale already! We didn’t get to 400 until mid-May of this year!

Personally, though we are expecting a fast start in 2025, we aren’t going to publish our first home for sale until January 9th. It will begin a six-week stretch where we will be rolling out a new listing every Thursday!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My Reasons Why NSDCC Inventory Will Surge in 2025:

1. Been trending that way – there has been 15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year than in 2023.

2. More listings have been cancelling this year than in Q423. They’ll be back!

3. Prop 19 was fun while it lasted – more of those who inherited a home will want to cash out.

4. Credit card debt is over $1 trillion for the first time. More current homeowners will lighten the load by paying off all their bills and downsize to cheaper home (probably out of state).

5. The affluent fleeing the country – if you have nothing tying you down here, then there are other choices.

6. The 5th anniversary of Covid is a few months away. Those who put off moving can go ahead now!

7. California politics drives people away. Gav’s $25 million to fight Trump? Might be the last straw for some.

8. I don’t have the statistics but more baby boomers should be shuffling off this mortal coil.

9. We’re all older – if you’re going to move, do it while you still can, physically!

10. Covid buyers with life changes – Flush with equity, they can sell and buy a better house.

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
15
$724/sf
49
23
Jan 8
13
$645/sf
58
19
Jan 15
10
$664/sf
55
15
Jan 22
15
$750/sf
36
15
Jan 29
12
$834/sf
36
21
Feb 5
12
$784/sf
38
23
Feb 12
10
$818/sf
30
22
Feb 19
12
$731/sf
17
21
Feb 26
7
$725/sf
26
21
Mar 4
9
$763/sf
23
21
Mar 11
15
$742/sf
14
17
Mar 18
15
$697/sf
16
21
Mar 25
13
$846/sf
19
22
Apr 1
12
$897/sf
22
20
Apr 8
15
$869/sf
37
22
Apr 15
17
$811/sf
16
25
Apr 22
18
$829/sf
16
23
Apr 29
20
$796/sf
20
23
May 6
19
$868/sf
18
23
May 13
21
$859/sf
18
22
May 20
25
$939/sf
20
18
May 27
24
$897/sf
25
20
Jun 3
22
$879/sf
25
19
Jun 10
25
$834/sf
26
19
Jun 17
21
$823/sf
31
21
Jun 24
24
$752/sf
32
24
Jul 1
23
$760/sf
44
26
Jul 8
22
$801/sf
40
23
Jul 15
22
$815/sf
36
23
Jul 22
17
$814/sf
43
23
Jul 29
24
$815/sf
33
14
Aug 5
23
$771/sf
29
18
Aug 12
22
$787/sf
36
23
Aug 19
24
$773/sf
28
27
Aug 26
24
$760/sf
27
24
Sep 2
28
$767/sf
24
18
Sep 9
27
$803/sf
28
21
Sep 16
32
$808/sf
27
19
Sep 23
37
$791/sf
24
17
Sep 30
31
$892/sf
29
23
Oct 7
36
$836/sf
28
18
Oct 14
34
$818/sf
30
20
Oct 21
36
$834/sf
32
20
Oct 28
36
$893/sf
36
19
Nov 4
34
$885/sf
35
20
Nov 11
30
$880/sf
40
22
Nov 18
30
$890/sf
40
21
Nov 25
27
$907/sf
42
25
Dec 2
23
$945/sf
53
24
Dec 9
23
$925/sf
52
17
Dec 16
22
$890/sf
62
14
Dec 23
19
$956/sf
61
12
Dec 30
16
$981/sf
67
14

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
20
$866/sf
66
28
Jan 8
23
$890/sf
63
23
Jan 15
32
$876/sf
47
35
Jan 22
35
$823/sf
43
25
Jan 29
38
$833/sf
43
26
Feb 5
39
$810/sf
34
28
Feb 12
32
$781/sf
39
34
Feb 19
33
$797/sf
36
29
Feb 26
33
$840/sf
36
31
Mar 4
39
$827/sf
32
31
Mar 11
30
$857/sf
43
37
Mar 18
34
$847/sf
36
37
Mar 25
34
$848/sf
43
43
Apr 1
23
$873/sf
42
47
Apr 8
30
$884/sf
37
47
Apr 15
32
$961/sf
36
43
Apr 22
36
$964/sf
31
37
Apr 29
44
$921/sf
25
33
May 6
44
$921/sf
30
36
May 13
46
$939/sf
25
34
May 20
47
$965/sf
24
38
May 27
47
$965/sf
30
40
Jun 3
53
$1,006/sf
32
36
Jun 10
61
$942/sf
30
36
Jun 17
62
$909/sf
30
37
Jun 24
62
$909/sf
28
40
Jul 1
70
$883/sf
30
43
Jul 8
67
$925/sf
30
47
Jul 15
70
$888/sf
31
51
Jul 22
61
$858/sf
35
46
Jul 29
57
$859/sf
38
50
Aug 5
56
$892/sf
37
41
Aug 12
62
$895/sf
39
40
Aug 19
67
$879/sf
36
36
Aug 26
62
$899/sf
39
41
Sep 2
52
$912/sf
41
41
Sep 9
53
$889/sf
37
37
Sep 16
50
$877/sf
39
35
Sep 23
55
$902/sf
37
33
Sep 30
61
$894/sf
37
32
Oct 7
67
$899/sf
37
32
Oct 14
65
$889/sf
42
34
Oct 21
65
$880/sf
40
34
Oct 28
64
$877/sf
38
29
Nov 4
71
$888/sf
43
28
Nov 11
72
$879/sf
43
28
Nov 18
64
$912/sf
49
34
Nov 25
57
$919/sf
52
40
Dec 2
47
$925/sf
58
41
Dec 9
46
$959/sf
55
37
Dec 16
37
$1,007/sf
64
43
Dec 23
33
$1,004/sf
71
33
Dec 30
34
$1,016/sf
78
28

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
54
$1,046/sf
65
34
Jan 8
59
$1,034/sf
57
30
Jan 15
69
$1,094/sf
44
35
Jan 22
60
$1,108/sf
42
45
Jan 29
65
$1,126/sf
41
48
Feb 5
68
$1,120/sf
31
50
Feb 12
60
$1,123/sf
34
56
Feb 19
71
$1,130/sf
29
56
Feb 26
64
$1,138/sf
30
61
Mar 4
62
$1,202/sf
33
55
Mar 11
61
$1,211/sf
29
62
Mar 18
72
$1,143/sf
32
53
Mar 25
70
$1,101/sf
31
64
Apr 1
71
$1,049/sf
31
63
Apr 8
68
$1,076/sf
31
63
Apr 15
82
$1,058/sf
33
55
Apr 22
81
$1,066/sf
38
62
Apr 29
79
$1,076/sf
34
64
May 6
77
$1,067/sf
35
56
May 13
78
$1,069/sf
38
58
May 20
93
$1,049/sf
39
46
May 27
92
$1,053/sf
39
47
Jun 3
105
$1,025/sf
41
43
Jun 10
105
$1,035/sf
40
53
Jun 17
107
$1,002/sf
36
51
Jun 24
118
$1,034/sf
35
58
Jul 1
111
$1,013/sf
37
59
Jul 8
111
$1,019/sf
41
58
Jul 15
120
$1,014/sf
43
47
Jul 22
124
$972/sf
41
47
Jul 29
124
$974/sf
41
40
Aug 5
117
$978/sf
43
44
Aug 12
114
$964/sf
45
42
Aug 19
112
$982/sf
45
43
Aug 26
107
$957/sf
42
47
Sep 2
102
$945/sf
44
49
Sep 9
101
$965/sf
45
51
Sep 16
103
$982/sf
43
50
Sep 23
99
$986/sf
44
58
Sep 30
108
$984/sf
44
42
Oct 7
103
$1,006/sf
44
47
Oct 14
96
$979/sf
49
49
Oct 21
104
$993/sf
50
46
Oct 28
102
$992/sf
54
44
Nov 4
98
$1,000/sf
53
35
Nov 11
94
$1,002/sf
55
35
Nov 18
91
$993/sf
57
42
Nov 25
81
$971/sf
58
40
Dec 2
73
$996/sf
60
41
Dec 9
83
$1,043/sf
52
44
Dec 16
83
$1,038/sf
55
43
Dec 23
69
$1,031/sf
63
44
Dec 30
60
$1,041/sf
72
42

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
33
$1,216/sf
92
15
Jan 8
37
$1,248/sf
83
15
Jan 15
42
$1,236/sf
77
18
Jan 22
43
$1,283/sf
77
17
Jan 29
42
$1,242/sf
75
20
Feb 5
36
$1,363/sf
73
25
Feb 12
40
$1,252/sf
34
18
Feb 19
47
$1,515/sf
45
17
Feb 26
50
$1,512/sf
42
16
Mar 4
50
$1,588/sf
44
19
Mar 11
50
$1,594/sf
44
23
Mar 18
60
$1,537/sf
38
22
Mar 25
59
$1,614/sf
70
27
Apr 1
62
$1,660/sf
76
26
Apr 8
65
$1,479/sf
76
27
Apr 15
72
$1,442/sf
70
26
Apr 22
70
$1,462/sf
75
20
Apr 29
68
$1,434/sf
75
25
May 6
67
$1,373/sf
70
26
May 13
71
$1,355/sf
68
25
May 20
78
$1,298/sf
63
24
May 27
79
$1,267/sf
66
26
Jun 3
75
$1,272/sf
65
26
Jun 10
81
$1,248/sf
62
26
Jun 17
89
$1,195/sf
59
28
Jun 24
84
$1,229/sf
61
33
Jul 1
87
$1,227/sf
62
31
Jul 8
77
$1,278/sf
68
33
Jul 15
91
$1,263/sf
63
31
Jul 22
82
$1,272/sf
68
31
Jul 29
84
$1,221/sf
67
25
Aug 5
80
$1,180/sf
71
22
Aug 12
80
$1,196/sf
70
24
Aug 19
80
$1,145/sf
45
26
Aug 26
80
$1,118/sf
44
22
Sep 2
81
$1,144/sf
47
23
Sep 9
84
$1,143/sf
46
23
Sep 16
84
$1,168/sf
47
23
Sep 23
88
$1,141/sf
49
21
Sep 30
83
$1,159/sf
52
21
Oct 7
89
$1,159/sf
51
21
Oct 14
85
$1,223/sf
56
25
Oct 21
86
$1,225/sf
52
29
Oct 28
77
$1,216/sf
61
28
Nov 4
75
$1,213/sf
63
28
Nov 11
77
$1,242/sf
64
24
Nov 18
76
$1,177/sf
60
21
Nov 25
63
$1,179/sf
61
21
Dec 2
63
$1,180/sf
60
17
Dec 9
67
$1,167/sf
60
15
Dec 16
64
$1,152/sf
65
15
Dec 23
53
$1,112/sf
65
16
Dec 30
49
$1,124/sf
70
15

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
139
$1,858/sf
116
20
Jan 8
151
$1,896/sf
109
18
Jan 15
157
$1,879/sf
106
22
Jan 22
159
$1,824/sf
104
27
Jan 29
162
$1,758/sf
108
31
Feb 5
162
$1,718/sf
108
30
Feb 12
154
$1,705/sf
107
34
Feb 19
168
$1,685/sf
107
24
Feb 26
175
$1,691/sf
105
26
Mar 4
166
$1,692/sf
97
36
Mar 11
178
$1,663/sf
90
37
Mar 18
179
$1,691/sf
90
29
Mar 25
177
$1,693/sf
83
34
Apr 1
176
$1,713/sf
87
31
Apr 8
177
$1,771/sf
82
37
Apr 15
179
$1,731/sf
88
40
Apr 22
183
$1,733/sf
85
42
Apr 29
187
$1,765/sf
81
42
May 6
191
$1,751/sf
83
42
May 13
184
$1,754/sf
84
47
May 20
193
$1,734/sf
81
45
May 27
202
$1,716/sf
78
46
Jun 3
203
$1,694/sf
74
43
Jun 10
206
$1,716/sf
70
43
Jun 17
204
$1,666/sf
68
41
Jun 24
208
$1,678/sf
68
44
Jul 1
213
$1,673/sf
70
35
Jul 8
212
$1,674/sf
72
29
Jul 15
217
$1,637/sf
73
26
Jul 22
218
$1,633/sf
77
32
Jul 29
221
$1,626/sf
80
32
Aug 5
222
$1,627/sf
83
27
Aug 12
217
$1,624/sf
81
25
Aug 19
209
$1,633/sf
83
33
Aug 26
209
$1,617/sf
85
37
Sep 2
207
$1,623/sf
82
39
Sep 9
204
$1,662/sf
85
38
Sep 16
201
$1,658/sf
86
37
Sep 23
200
$1,668/sf
87
38
Sep 30
192
$1,638/sf
89
42
Oct 7
189
$1,619/sf
90
44
Oct 14
194
$1,614/sf
88
39
Oct 21
186
$1,624/sf
94
34
Oct 28
190
$1,677/sf
95
30
Nov 4
193
$1,685/sf
95
26
Nov 11
192
$1,725/sf
93
27
Nov 18
197
$1,777/sf
91
28
Nov 25
189
$1,766/sf
94
26
Dec 2
188
$1,765/sf
96
25
Dec 9
187
$1,769/sf
95
29
Dec 16
185
$1,796/sf
95
33
Dec 23
174
$1,815/sf
98
33
Dec 30
169
$1,827/sf
105
28

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 2, 2024
18
10
255
113
Jan 8
43
12
278
100
Jan 15
52
20
305
102
Jan 22
50
29
308
122
Jan 29
44
32
314
140
Feb 5
44
33
312
149
Feb 12
37
34
292
159
Feb 19
53
24
326
143
Feb 26
45
37
324
151
Mar 4
52
45
332
166
Mar 11
53
26
331
165
Mar 18
62
32
355
159
Mar 25
45
46
348
186
Apr 1
37
42
340
183
Apr 8
58
36
352
191
Apr 15
58
29
378
184
Apr 22
44
36
384
179
Apr 29
67
36
393
185
May 6
58
48
394
183
May 13
47
34
395
186
May 20
67
26
429
171
May 27
57
36
435
179
Jun 3
55
26
449
166
Jun 10
77
40
469
175
Jun 17
64
37
474
175
Jun 24
78
29
489
192
Jul 1
51
38
496
188
Jul 8
41
37
479
184
Jul 15
52
29
509
172
Jul 22
43
42
495
172
Jul 29
50
23
503
156
Aug 5
52
40
492
148
Aug 12
49
38
489
150
Aug 19
63
29
486
162
Aug 26
56
38
477
167
Sep 2
56
33
465
167
Sep 9
34
27
463
168
Sep 16
53
33
465
163
Sep 23
54
29
475
166
Sep 30
50
39
470
158
Oct 7
45
30
477
160
Oct 14
34
33
471
163
Oct 21
45
28
470
160
Oct 28
44
23
464
147
Nov 4
32
21
466
134
Nov 11
41
20
460
133
Nov 18
43
30
452
144
Nov 25
36
29
398
150
Dec 2
18
18
373
147
Dec 9
45
22
401
141
Dec 16
26
26
386
141
Dec 23
12
25
343
135
Dec 30
12
9
323
125

NSDCC List Price Quartiles

Week
1st Quartile
Median List Price
3rd Quartile
Jan 2, 2024
$2,549,888
$4,444,000
$8,350,000
Jan 8
$2,572,444
$4,447,000
$8,097,500
Jan 15
$2,499,000
$4,200,000
$7,950,000
Jan 22
$2,429,000
$4,250,000
$7,450,000
Jan 29
$2,399,000
$4,225,000
$7,495,000
Feb 5
$2,398,000
$4,272,500
$7,495,000
Feb 12
$2,499,800
$4,297,500
$7,495,000
Feb 19
$2,499,400
$4,200,000
$6,972,500
Feb 26
$2,649,400
$4,350,000
$7,300,000
Mar 4
$2,525,000
$4,225,000
$7,149,500
Mar 11
$2,649,000
$4,295,000
$7,495,000
Mar 18
$2,500,000
$4,000,000
$6,750,000
Mar 25
$2,680,000
$4,097,499
$6,750,000
Apr 1
$2,785,000
$4,150,000
$6,999,999
Apr 8
$2,680,000
$4,047,500
$6,999,000
Apr 15
$2,570,000
$3,899,500
$6,797,500
Apr 22
$2,499,000
$3,982,500
$6,495,000
Apr 29
$2,399,000
$3,990,000
$6,750,000
May 6
$2,485,000
$3,995,000
$6,825,000
May 13
$2,475,000
$3,895,000
$6,900,000
May 20
$2,420,000
$3,750,000
$6,480,000
May 27
$2,495,000
$3,840,000
$6,695,000
Jun 3
$2,475,000
$3,749,000
$6,395,000
Jun 10
$2,388,000
$3,500,000
$6,187,000
Jun 17
$2,412,500
$3,599,500
$5,995,000
Jun 24
$2,350,000
$3,500,000
$6,398,000
Jul 1
$2,398,000
$3,600,000
$6,400,000
Jul 8
$2,399,000
$3,650,000
$6,500,000
Jul 15
$2,399,999
$3,500,000
$6,398,000
Jul 22
$2,399,000
$3,695,000
$6,398,000
Jul 29
$2,375,000
$3,650,000
$6,187,000
Aug 5
$2,350,000
$3,699,500
$6,295,000
Aug 12
$2,349,000
$3,650,000
$5,995,000
Aug 19
$2,315,000
$3,595,000
$5,995,000
Aug 26
$2,299,999
$3,649,000
$5,999,000
Sep 2
$2,350,000
$3,698,000
$6,495,000
Sep 9
$2,300,000
$3,700,000
$6,495,000
Sep 16
$2,345,000
$3,695,000
$6,250,000
Sep 23
$2,299,000
$3,600,000
$6,475,000
Sep 30
$2,297,000
$3,495,000
$6,099,000
Oct 7
$2,200,000
$3,490,000
$5,900,000
Oct 14
$2,250,000
$3,500,000
$6,295,000
Oct 21
$2,262,500
$3,495,000
$5,997,000
Oct 28
$2,249,000
$3,495,000
$6,495,000
Nov 4
$2,183,500
$3,495,000
$6,495,000
Nov 11
$2,199,000
$3,495,000
$6,649,000
Nov 18
$2,250,000
$3,537,500
$6,990,000
Nov 25
$2,199,500
$3,537,500
$6,925,000
Dec 2
$2,300,000
$3,850,000
$7,150,000
Dec 9
$2,300,000
$3,880,000
$6,995,000
Dec 16
$2,498,500
$3,895,000
$7,424,500
Dec 23
$2,499,900
$4,150,000
$7,349,000
Dec 30
$2,500,000
$4,250,000
$7,499,900
author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
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8 Comments

  1. Maryam
    Maryam on December 30, 2024 at 9:51 am

    11. Last year at this time, interest rates were around 6.5 % trending downward after reaching a peak of around 8% in October 2023. This year, they are around 7% trending upward after reaching a low point of around 6.25% in late September.

  2. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on December 30, 2024 at 10:38 am

    Thanks Maryam!

    You might be starting a new category.

    My ten reasons are generic, organic reasons why more sellers will be listing their homes for sale this year. Probably 20% more than last year.

    Your thought is in a different grouping – those sellers who are reacting to the new market conditions, and are selling while they can get out with about what they could get last year.

    A third category, Panic Sellers, won’t form until there is already blood in the water (an obvious -10% in pricing). It will be a very small group.

  3. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on December 30, 2024 at 6:18 pm

    The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases monthly reports on both existing and pending home sales. The latter tracks signed purchase contracts that have not yet closed. As such, it’s seen as a good early indicator of existing home sales in the following month.

    The housing market would take any help it can get at the moment and November’s pending sales numbers are actually legitimately encouraging, even if the overall level of activity remains historically low.

    This is the 4th consecutive month of improvement for the index and it brings it to the highest level since February 2023. Contract signings were up 2.2% versus last month and 6.9% versus last year, even as mortgage rates remain elevated. That makes the past few months significant because this the first meaningful break into positive year-over-year territory since early 2022.

    “Consumers appeared to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates have averaged above 6% for the past 24 months. Buyers are no longer waiting for or expecting mortgage rates to fall substantially. Furthermore, buyers are in a better position to negotiate as the market shifts away from a seller’s market.”

    Regionally, the South led the charge with a 5.2% increase vs last month. The Midwest and Western regions advanced less than 1% and the Northeast declined 1.3%. All 4 regions are stronger in year over year terms.

    https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/12302024-pending-home-sales

  4. Time Will Tell
    Time Will Tell on December 30, 2024 at 9:02 pm

    Is 2025 the year flippers will poop the bed? Flippers eventually get caught. This game has gone on too long with such low risk. Buying a tired property and putting in a cheap kitchen and cheap Glacier Bay bathroom is almost over.

  5. Shadash
    Shadash on December 31, 2024 at 8:11 am

    So, if inventory is going up will there be buyers? This is the million dollar question.

    If inventory stays high for an extended amount of time will banks start doing short sales again to incentivize sales? Or will banks let people live in houses for free and not foreclose? (To maintain high prices)

    My bet is inventory will continue to expand and the buyer pool will get more and more picky. I don’t think prices will go down that much. Unless banks start foreclosing again.

  6. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on December 31, 2024 at 8:16 am

    So, if inventory is going up will there be buyers? This is the million dollar question.

    I think there will be lookers….will they be more cautious when they see additional homes for sale? Especially if there is a flood? I think so.

  7. Brian
    Brian on December 31, 2024 at 8:43 am

    I don’t think the average person understands what’s going on with the job market.

    Unemployment, and underemployment are significantly higher than reported. Most of the big businesses in California are hiring outside of the state, or overseas.

    The days of the 400k tech job are over, and AI is starting to really eliminate entire swaths of jobs.

    Ultra rich / Cash buyers – can they sustain this?

  8. Jim the Realtor
    Jim the Realtor on January 1, 2025 at 9:05 am

    Ultra rich / Cash buyers – can they sustain this?

    Yes, I think they can.

    The generational wealth transfer will continue for years, and when the money comes (too) easy, it gets spent easily too (IOW, buyers don’t care as much about price).

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