Today, there are 160 pending listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and 36 sales have closed this month so far – and currently, there are 470 active listings with a median list price of $2,997,000.
It means that the July sales will be under 200 for the second month in a row (June’s total is currently at 189 sales). Because the 2021 frenzy was so insane, the comparisons to last year will be shocking.
We had 357 sales last June, and 312 sales in July, 2021, which means the monthly sales totals this summer are going to look like year-over-year declines of 35% to 50% – yikes!
To the casual observers, it will look like the market is in shambles.
But is it?
The quick and easy assumption is that the active listings are overpriced, and yes, price will fix them. But it is also due to them being inferior – and at this stage, buyers don’t want to compromise, or at least not much.
During the frenzy, buyers were so desperate to just win a house that they paid about the same for the fixers as they did for the creampuffs. Not any more, and the price gap between them is back. But sellers of the inferior homes haven’t gotten the memo yet – and those homes are languishing on the market.
I’ll make my case with one that just happened yesterday. The model-match directly across the street from this new listing had just closed for $2,900,000 a month ago. But this house had a decked-out backyard that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. They priced it 9% higher at $3,175,000:
They received six offers and according to the listing agent, it sold for “way over list”.
I know that I’m cherry-picking and there will always be a market for the creampuffs with a fancy backyard that have a good comp across the street. The market might wind down to just these types of sales, but there are buyers willing to pay retail, or retail-plus for them!
What can sellers do who don’t have a fancy backyard?
When pricing your home, omit the sales with fancy backyards.
When pricing your home, don’t use the sales price of comps that were radically bid up (use the list prices).
When pricing your home, compare to the active (unsold) listings and start lower than them.
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Michael Jackson was only six months older than me, and I think there is a sort of kinship between those who are about the same age. So when we had a chance to see the play ‘MJ’ on Broadway when we were visiting Kayla, I jumped at the chance.
Not only was it phenomenal, but I thought that the guy playing Michael was better at being Michael than Michael was – and that’s saying something! He won the Tony for best actor:
Buyer: I’ve had about 40 calls since 7am this morning for mortgages.
I didn’t take any of them and most of them are leaving VMs and texts saying they got notified by Experian that my credit was pulled for mortgage purposes and they want to help. Not sure why and how Experian is sharing my information. I am sure there is a fineprint somewhere.
Lender: It’s not uncommon these days unfortunately. It’s called a trigger lead. Very annoying thing the credit bureaus do.
Here is some info:
What is a trigger lead? When a borrower applies for a mortgage, the three credit bureaus take that information and sell it as a “mortgage lead” to any lender that is willing to pay for it. The “mortgage lead” has the borrower’s name, contact information and the date they applied for credit on it.
Why would someone buy a trigger lead? A trigger lead is a really good indicator that someone is in the process of refinancing or a purchasing a home. A lot of lenders feel this a great opportunity to try to steal the transaction for themselves.
Why is it so bad right now? With interest rates going up and refinance activity going down, most lender’s pipelines have begun to disappear. In response to that a lot of them are buying trigger leads right now.
Why doesn’t your bank do something about this? Unfortunately we do not have ability to block or restrict the credit bureaus from selling this information. This activity is not illegal, it’s legal for the credit bureaus to sell it as they are the owners of the data.
What can we do to help borrowers avoid this? They can remove their information from being sold as a trigger lead. They can do this over the phone or through a website provided by the credit bureaus. Web link here: www.optoutprescreen.com or phone here: 888–567–8688. This must be done before they apply for credit and can take up to 5 business days to process so this may not work for everyone.
Sellers are confident about their pricing, and refuse to budge much – and buyers are being very patient.
There were 55 new NSDCC listings in the last week, and NONE of them have been marked pending yet!
Pricing in the higher-end market looks troubling, but it’s mostly due to the additional homes for sale.
On January 31st, the 3rd quartile was $9,922,500, and today it’s $5,500,000 which is a 45% drop! There were 102 active listings priced over $4,000,000 back then, and now it’s grown to 164, which is a 60% increase. More sellers are pushing into the higher ranges!
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Here is a good sampling of the NSDCC pricing decisions made in May (mortgage rates started going up the first of April). The days-on-market are on the left.
Days on Market: All 28 found their buyer quickly – only one took as long as ten days!
Paid Over List: 21 of 28 paid over the list price (75%).
Of the 21 who paid over the list price, the average amount paid over list was $185,761. Literally 11 out of 21 paid at least $200,000 over list – and these 28 sales are the mid-range group!
The number of detached-home listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad has plummeted this year, compared to previous years. We saw the June counts (included again here), but how does the overall count look for the first six months of 2022?
NSDCC Listings, First Half of the Year
Year
# of Listing, Jan-Jun
Median LP
Median SP
# of June Listings
2016
2,996
$1,425,000
$1,154,000
513
2017
2,703
$1,425,000
$1,225,050
416
2018
2,698
$1,499,000
$1,325,0002
476
2019
2,708
$1,550,000
$1,300,000
435
2020
2,303
$1,675,000
$1,400,000
448
2021
2,166
$1,900,000
$1,850,101
386
2022
1,682
$2,400,000
$2,428,000
326
We used to have around 2,700 listings in the first half of the year, and a sizeable gap between the median list price, and the median sales price.
Now we have 1/3 fewer listings, and a median sales price that is $577,899 higher than last year (+31%) – and it’s also HIGHER than the median list price!
As more potential sellers get the (wrong) impression that now isn’t a good time to sell, don’t be surprised if listing counts drop further. And people think prices are going to go down? Why? There isn’t much to buy now, and it’s going to get worse – the trend is fewer people want to sell.
Sales are toast – we are probably going to have months this year where the NSDCC sales count gets down around 100 per month, which has never happened before. But it’s because fewer people want to move, and those that do list their home for sale will want to hold out on price – or just wait until ‘the market improves’.
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Jim & Donna Klinge helped us sell our home of 30 years in Ocean Hills. We were very happy with their service and would HIGHLY recommend them to anyone looking for an Honest, Knowledgeable, Skilled, Informed Efficient realty team. Both Jim & Donna were so helpful in different ways and complemented each others skills. Please refer to a more detailed review that we wrote on YELP. Thank You Both for all your help!!!
Jesse O'Hara
June 12, 2025
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
