The number of detached-home listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad has plummeted this year, compared to previous years. We saw the June counts (included again here), but how does the overall count look for the first six months of 2022?
NSDCC Listings, First Half of the Year
| Year | ||||
| 2016 | ||||
| 2017 | ||||
| 2018 | ||||
| 2019 | ||||
| 2020 | ||||
| 2021 | ||||
| 2022 |
We used to have around 2,700 listings in the first half of the year, and a sizeable gap between the median list price, and the median sales price.
Now we have 1/3 fewer listings, and a median sales price that is $577,899 higher than last year (+31%) – and it’s also HIGHER than the median list price!
As more potential sellers get the (wrong) impression that now isn’t a good time to sell, don’t be surprised if listing counts drop further. And people think prices are going to go down? Why? There isn’t much to buy now, and it’s going to get worse – the trend is fewer people want to sell.
Sales are toast – we are probably going to have months this year where the NSDCC sales count gets down around 100 per month, which has never happened before. But it’s because fewer people want to move, and those that do list their home for sale will want to hold out on price – or just wait until ‘the market improves’.
Jumbo 30-yr fixed rates are in the mid-4s!
But if you think that is still high, know this:
Marry the house, and only date the mortgage!
Let’s note the NSDCC first-half sales history:
2016: 1,523
2017: 1,585
2018: 1,411
2019: 1,381
2020: 1,145
2021: 1,679
2022: 1,135….pandemic level!
7.5% rates looking highly unlikely.
“We are probably around peak inflation now,” Vincent Reinhart, a former top Fed economists, who is now a strategist at Dreyfus and Mellon. “If your goal is to slow the economy by a good bit, you are not going to stop until you have every measure of the economy flashing recession. Only then will it be mission accomplished for the Fed.”
He said he anticipated gradual, slower growth in what he described as a “housing downturn.” Redfin’s shares have dropped nearly 80 percent over the past six months.
“We could be facing years, not months, of fewer home sales,” Mr. Kelman wrote to employees.