Money Will Fix This

This should be a piece of cake!

We had five offers to purchase this 1979 custom home, but because it is hard to look at, buyers expect a BIG discount. Here I review a simple plan to bring it into this era. The comp that just closed this week for $2,895,000 is a three-story house – have you ever seen a decent 3-story? Me neither – they are usually two great floors with a converted attic or basement, so the effective square footage would be about the same as this house. But we’re way off the busy street and right on the 4th hole at La Costa! Only $1,995,000.

Home Buyer Tips

What can home buyers do to simplify their search?

Being realistic is a great place to start. Virtually every realtor promises to find you a ‘dream home’, and it’s easy to believe that there must be a perfect home out there, no matter the price range.

The perfect homes start at $10 million though. If you are in that range, I will find you a dream home!

Everyone else will have to kiss a few frogs to help narrow the search to homes that are suitable.

Here are a few quick ideas to help qualify the homes you see:

  • You will be considering older homes that could use some work. Only consider buying the homes that have at least HALF of the necessary remodeling already completed. Unless it has a spectacular location or other premium feature, then make sure the seller has given you a quality head start on the remodeling.
  • Expect to spend $25,000 to $50,000 on any house you buy. It changes the mindset from searching for the perfect home to a realistic hunt for where you will spend the money to add your personal touches to someone else’s home.
  • If this purchase might be your forever home, then insist on at least 2,000sf.
  • Compromise is part of the package. But limit your compromises to one or two only. If you find yourself seeing more than two things you don’t like, then this home ain’t for you. Importantly, this isn’t the last home for sale – there will be othesr!

The preferred features to consider in your search: location, private, sunny backyard, interior with natural light, larger functional kitchen, one-story, view or visual openness, 3-car garage, bedroom suite downstairs, possible forever home.

Get Good Help!

JtR and His Bidding Wars

There are consumers who shop around for an agent.

It’s a practice that I strongly disagree with – I think you should just hire me 😆 – but some people insist. It provides an irresistible opportunity for agents to talk smack about other agents.

This is what a competing agent said to a seller about me:

“Jim is tough to work with because he likes to create bidding wars.”

It made the seller want to work with me even more!

But it demonstrates how the general realtor population is stuck on there only being one way to handle multiple offers. I’ve been employing my slow-motion auction since 2009 when selling the bank-owned properties and receiving double-digit offers on every property.

What’s different with me?

A. I give every buyer a chance to buy the home.

B. I keep giving them a chance to bid until they reach their limit and voluntarily bow out of the competition.

Participating agents tell me regularly that they thought it was a fair and transparent process, and they appreciate the chance to stay in the game to the end.

How do ALL other agents handle bidding wars? They stop the bidding – usually prematurely – and then they turn off their phone and sequester the sellers in a back room and tell them to select one of the offers. Invariably, the sellers will ask for advice, and then the listing agent will point out their favorite.

Listing agents love to play God and select the winner (usually an offer written by their favorite agent).

Comparing this version to my process, which one is in the seller’s best interest?

Why don’t agents adopt my slow-motion auction? Because they don’t know how. They don’t want to risk it. And they LOVE to play God and be the decider.

I let the market decide.

Not only is it in the seller’s best interest, but my transparency is also in the buyer’s best interest because they get to control the outcome, not me.

In the beginning, I explain my process to sellers. Nobody has ever said, “Hey, I’m not interested in giving everyone a chance to bid up the price”, but I’m fine if they would – it is the seller’s choice, not mine.

Hey competing agents – instead of bashing me, why don’t you give it a try!

Trendy Tuesday – Natalie

San Diego Restaurant Week by Natalie

Don’t miss an opportunity to try amazing local restaurants during this year’s San Diego Restaurant Week!

Through February 2nd, 100+ restaurants are offering special menus starting at $30. Whether you are looking to rake up a deal, create a customized dining plan, or just enjoy some new restaurants, SDRW has something for everyone!

Here are some of my favorites:

Seasons Restaurant, Carlsbad

This is next to the Park Hyatt in Aviara and has some incredible food in a beautiful indoor-outdoor space! They’re offering special lunch and dinner menus for the week so you can go twice to try different options if you really wanted to!

Benihana, Carlsbad

I spent most of my birthdays as a kid at this Benihana so the nostalgia plays a factor in my love for this place, but what’s not to love?! Dinner and a show!

The Grill at Torrey Pines, La Jolla

Another gorgeous setting, The Grill offers some of the best views of the iconic Torrey Pines Golf Course while serving delicious food! The L.A. Open will be here February 13-16 with many of the big-name golfers vying for the $20 million purse.

George’s at the Cove, La Jolla

More amazing views! I had my high school graduation dinner at George’s with my family and it was such a special afternoon with yummy food. They’ve set a lunch and dinner menu for the week so your group can try a variety of dishes.

Cafe Coyote, Old Town

My parents, boyfriend, and I stopped here on our way home from a Padres game last year and the authentic Mexican food was to die for! Their chips and salsa alone make it worth the trip to Old Town.

For a full list of participating restaurants, visit the website here.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, November

I use the non-seasonally adjusted index because our market doesn’t have much seasonality and because I think you can handle the truth. But for those who prefer the fluffed-up version, then know that the seasonally-adjusted SD index for November was +0.4%, month-over-month.

Will we end our losing streak next month?

Maybe – the market “picked up” after the election so pricing might reflect a slight gain in the December reading.

P.S. There are minuscule revisions every month – these are the most-recent calcs:

The psycho-babble:

“Annual house price gains continued to moderate in November, with sales prices in all nine Census divisions exhibiting slower pace of growth than a year earlier,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The slowdown in price growth is likely due to higher mortgage rates contributing to cooling demand.”

“With the exception of pockets of above-trend performance, national home prices are trending below historical averages,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Markets in New York, Washington, D.C., and Chicago are well above norms, with New York leading the way. Unsurprisingly, the Northeast was the fastest growing region, averaging a 6.1% annual gain. However, markets out west and in once red-hot Florida are trending well below average growth. Tampa’s decline is the first annual drop for any market in over a year. Returns for the Tampa market and entire Southern region rank in the bottom quartile of historical annual gains, with data going back to 1988.

“Despite below-trend growth, our National Index hit its 18th consecutive all-time high on a seasonally adjusted basis,” Luke continued. “Again, with the exception of Tampa, all markets rose monthly with seasonal adjustment. With New York leading the nation for the seventh consecutive month and U.S. banks reporting strong Q4 earnings, this could set the Big Apple up as we close out the year.”

Inventory Watch

Ok, we’re rolling now!

There are 337 NSDCC active listings today.

We didn’t hit that number until mid-March last year, and in 2023 we didn’t reach that many until mid-May!

The number of pendings did rebound but they are still under where they were in the last two years.

As more and more active (unsold) listings pile up, will sellers get nervous and adjust on price?

It doesn’t look like it. In fact, they look more confident than ever, judging by the last three months. The median asking price has risen +29% since the beginning of November!!

(more…)

Migration is Slowing

The out-migration from California must be slowing – because I doubt the in-migration has been increasing! It’s almost back to pre-covid levels, which means we can say it’s normalizing?

My guess at the reason? When Californians try to make sense of moving out of state, they find that home prices elsewhere have risen so much that it doesn’t make as much sense as it used to.

Thanks to Lance for the data!

This month, the U.S. Census Bureau published their net domestic migration figures for 2024. Keep in mind that this metric (net domestic migration) is NOT total population change. It doesn’t include births/deaths nor international migration.

Instead, net domestic migration is calculated as the difference between the number of Americans moving into a given state (in-migration) and the number of people leaving that state (out-migration) over a specific period.

These 5 states saw the biggest net domestic migration INCREASE between July 2023 and July 2024:

  1. Texas —> +85,267
  2. North Carolina —> +82,288
  3. South Carolina —> +68,043
  4. Florida —> +64,017
  5. Tennessee —> +48,476

These 5 states saw the biggest net domestic migration DECREASE between July 2023 and July 2024:

  1. California —> -239,575
  2. New York —> -120,917
  3. Illinois —> -56,235
  4. New Jersey —> -35,554
  5. Massachusetts —> -27,480

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/

State of the NSDCC

I thought that this would be the week that the surge of new listings would start to appear, but not yet. There have only been 167 new listings this month between La Jolla and Carlsbad, which is about the same pace as last January.

The monthly closed sales are about the same too. There were 102 NSDCC sales last January, and so far there have been 87 closings this month so we should exceed the 2024 count.

Ok – so we’re doing the same or a little better than last year.

The concern?

There have only been 81 new pendings this month.

It means the future closings are going to be light.

It looks like we’ll be lucky to reach 100 sales next month. There are only 109 total pendings today, and probably 20 of those will close this month! Last February, there were 140 closings.

Let’s examine our listing on Nantucket for guidance.

I thought we could get 5-10 offers, and might get bid up 5% to 10% over list. The house looked spectacular and seemed superior to the comp RIGHT NEXT DOOR that was pending with the same list price. The neighbor had a pool, but inside looked very standard.

But we received fewer than five offers and it only got bid up a little.

What happened?

I had 200+ people attend the open houses, so it seemed like everything was going right. But there must have been at least 6-8 people who told me that they were going to make an offer, but then disappeared.

Was it the three-day weekend? I had 200+ people attend.

Was it too early in the season? I had 200+ people attend.

Was it the price? I had 200+ people attend.

No matter how many homes the potential buyers have seen, they had to recognize that this home was highly upgraded, which is hard to find around Carmel Valley where the vast majority of homes for sale are older tract houses – but not old enough to be thoroughly renovated yet. It’s probably the worst time ever for CV shopping because every home not in Pacific Highlands Ranch looks dated now.

We have lookers. They appear to be very cautious and content to wait-and-see.

Will they be buyers? If they are waiting for better pricing, they will be in for a LONG wait. Sellers aren’t going to budge when they have a comp or two to back their case on price.

Buyer-agents are fading away, and this is where we will see the impact. Without having good help, potential buyers will be overly cautious and stay comfortably on the fence. Fewer sales ahead!

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