Village Park Starter

Check out our new listing!

1938 Park Dale Lane, Encinitas

2 br/2 ba, 1,080sf

YB: 1978

HOA = $325/mo.

LP = $849,000

SP = $841,000 – Sold! We represented the sellers who had shopped agents, and had one tell them that he would list for $675,000. We knew the potential and suggested a $15,000 tune-up to reach the retail buyers….which we did!

You can still buy a Village Park home in the $800,000s! This one feels like a detached-home too, and is surrounded by greenbelts. One-story, new flooring and paint, private backyard, 2-car garage, air-conditioning, laundry room, plus the primary bedroom suite has a fantastic travertine shower and huge walk-in closet! A house across the street is listed for $1,900,000 – this is the right neighborhood! Walk to the Park Dale Lane Elementary School and the Village Park Recreation Club too – enjoy all the benefits of the Village Park clubhouse, pool/spa, & tennis courts in this dog-walker’s paradise with flowing green belts throughout the area. Wow!

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/1938-park-dale-lane-encinitas-ca-92024/1079135454154740505

Open House 10am-1pm on Wednesday, June 29th!

Downtown Carlsbad Townhouse

Our buyer snagged this hot buy west of the freeway and walking distance to all the village of Carlsbad has to offer!  High ceilings, skylights, updated kitchen, and 2 parking spaces in garage.

1024 Laguna Dr. #9, Carlsbad

2 br + loft/2 ba, 1,029sf

YB: 1989

SP = $730,000

Zillow Local Forecasts

The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year. In May, they were guessing +19% or more in all areas, so this looks like a soft landing:

NW Carlsbad, 92008:

SE Carlsbad, 92009:

NE Carlsbad, 92010:

SW Carlsbad, 92011:

Carmel Valley, 92130:

Del Mar, 92014:

Encinitas, 92024:

La Jolla:

Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:

They do have website-viewer data that nobody else has, and hopefully they are using it to track the activity and make predictions.

Happy Birthday Doug!

Doug has been gone for five years now – and today is his birthday!

A good time for us to revisit one of the times he shared some of his wisdom – this was in July, 2014 when we were coming off the Frenzy of 2013:

Moving in the Post-Frenzy Era

We try to talk to potential sellers every day, and their response is universal.

When they find out that they will have to pay capital-gains tax when selling – and for most local homeowners it means paying six-figures in taxes – their desire to move cools off quickly. They were already somewhat reluctant to move, because if they had a strong desire, then they would have moved already.

Now add in the heightened difficulty of buying the next home.  Most sellers would like to stay local, but it’s nearly impossible to make sense of moving up or down and stay in the same neighborhood.  If you move up, you need to spend a boatload of extra money, and if you move down you have to sacrifice/compromise in ways that make homeowners want to just stay put.

Move out of state?

It was a great idea when you could buy a decent home in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, etc. for less than $500,000.  But the California exodus has been underway for years now, and has gobbled up enough homes that prices there have exploded, and drained the inventory too – just like here.

The sales and pricing in the post-frenzy environment will be determined by inventory.  We’ve had the fewest homes for sale ever around here, and I think it’s going to get worse. If the only way to make sense of moving is to 1) pay six-figures in taxes, 2) leave the state, AND 3) spend $800,000 to $1,000,000 there to get a decent house, it will talk even more local homeowners into staying put.

About the only relief I can imagine is that enough kids have to leave town and start over, and then the grandparents follow later once there are grandkids to fuss over.

Here’s the free article on the shortages of housing:

Link to NYT Article

Here is a long research paper that suggests we’ll be having a boomer liquidation event by the end of the 2030s. It doesn’t mention any effect from kids will be inheriting their parents’ and grandparents’ homes and live in them forever too:

The Great Senior Short-Sale or Why Policy Inertia Will Short Change Millions of America’s Seniors

If the inventory stays low, it will put pressure on pricing to stay where it is, or go higher.

The Gap Is Back

Today, there are 160 pending listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and 36 sales have closed this month so far – and currently, there are 470 active listings with a median list price of $2,997,000.

It means that the July sales will be under 200 for the second month in a row (June’s total is currently at 189 sales).  Because the 2021 frenzy was so insane, the comparisons to last year will be shocking.

We had 357 sales last June, and 312 sales in July, 2021, which means the monthly sales totals this summer are going to look like year-over-year declines of 35% to 50% – yikes!

To the casual observers, it will look like the market is in shambles.

But is it?

The quick and easy assumption is that the active listings are overpriced, and yes, price will fix them.  But it is also due to them being inferior – and at this stage, buyers don’t want to compromise, or at least not much.

During the frenzy, buyers were so desperate to just win a house that they paid about the same for the fixers as they did for the creampuffs.  Not any more, and the price gap between them is back. But sellers of the inferior homes haven’t gotten the memo yet – and those homes are languishing on the market.

I’ll make my case with one that just happened yesterday.  The model-match directly across the street from this new listing had just closed for $2,900,000 a month ago.  But this house had a decked-out backyard that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. They priced it 9% higher at $3,175,000:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/8149-calle-catalonia-carlsbad-ca-92009/1084725799397150353

They received six offers and according to the listing agent, it sold for “way over list”.

I know that I’m cherry-picking and there will always be a market for the creampuffs with a fancy backyard that have a good comp across the street.  The market might wind down to just these types of sales, but there are buyers willing to pay retail, or retail-plus for them!

What can sellers do who don’t have a fancy backyard?

  1. When pricing your home, omit the sales with fancy backyards.
  2. When pricing your home, don’t use the sales price of comps that were radically bid up (use the list prices).
  3. When pricing your home, compare to the active (unsold) listings and start lower than them.

And Get Good Help!

America’s Top States for Business

To rank America’s Top States for Business in 2022, CNBC scored all 50 states on 88 metrics in 10 broad categories of competitiveness. Each category is weighted based on how frequently states use them as a selling point in economic development marketing materials. That way, our study ranks the states based on the attributes they use to sell themselves.

We developed our criteria and metrics in consultation with a diverse array of business and policy experts, and the states. Our study is not an opinion survey. We use data from a variety of sources to measure the states’ performance. Under our methodology, states can earn a maximum of 2,500 points. The states with the most are America’s Top States for Business.

The Top Ten:

  1. North Carolina
  2. Washington
  3. Virginia
  4. Colorado
  5. Texas
  6. Tennessee
  7. Nebraska
  8. Utah
  9. Minnesota
  10. Georgia

Read the full rankings here (California was #29):

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/americas-top-states-for-business-2022-the-full-rankings.html

MJ

Michael Jackson was only six months older than me, and I think there is a sort of kinship between those who are about the same age. So when we had a chance to see the play ‘MJ’ on Broadway when we were visiting Kayla, I jumped at the chance.

Not only was it phenomenal, but I thought that the guy playing Michael was better at being Michael than Michael was – and that’s saying something! He won the Tony for best actor:

Pin It on Pinterest