The final accuracy of any guess on appreciation doesn’t matter. We all know that they are just guesses.

What matters is whether home buyers and sellers will make decisions today, based on what they read.

If I keep showing data and forecasts that show pricing isn’t tanking between La Jolla and Carlsbad, would it cause you to ignore the national doom and do something different, like buy or sell now?

Or will people just take it all in, and then do what they planned to do all along – move next spring? Or deliberately wait until 2024 to ‘wait-and-see’ what happens then, hoping for something different?

Because for the market to be ‘different’ , there would need to be a change here:

Very few quality homes for sale at less-than-retail pricing.

Most everyone who bought a home in the last 13 years has tremendous incentives to NOT sell it.  Will the IRS waive the capital-gains tax to help the real estate market? Will there be a load of new homes built between La Jolla and Carlsbad?  Will higher rates make potential sellers panic?

The answer to those questions is ‘very unlikely’, and things are most likely going to stay the same.

Will ANY data or forecasts have an effect on your moving plans?

The next round of Zillow local guesses started today – here’s the first installment:

Carmel Valley

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