Yes the -0.01% isn’t much, but didn’t every casual observer think mortgage rates were going to rise again? That we were heading for 6% or 7% or 8%?
Everyone is going to get used to mortgage rates in the 5s, and by springtime this will all settle down and we’ll get back to a relatively normal market again.
We just sold our listing in Davidson’s Starboard neighborhood of La Costa Oaks!
7535 Circulo Sequoia, Carlsbad
5 br/3.5 ba, 4,0000sf
YB: 2005
SP = $2,250,000 – we represented the sellers.
This newer Davidson Plan 2 has over $100,000 in custom upgrades! The smooth-finish mission-style wall texture throughout, ‘rainforest’ marble counters in primary bath, customized white kitchen with stainless & walk-in pantry, hardwood floors, plus a fantastic courtyard that creates a terrific indoor/outdoor lifestyle! Private bedroom/full bath downstairs too! Owned solar, central A/C, and 75-gallon water-heater. This is a trophy property! Hike or bike the 6 miles of local preserve trails nearby and enjoy the pool/clubhouse/fitness center at the Oaks Club!
The last six sales in La Costa Oaks in the last 90 days are: $3,160,000, $2,650,000, $2,625,000, $2,385,000, $2,415,000, and $2,800,000 – we are under ALL of them (see documents). Encinitas schools too! The 33 panel Solar System produces 17,000MWh/year and powers two wall chargers for EVs. Four motorized sunshades were added (very effective), and recently replaced appliances include: Hot Water Heater, Microwave, Dishwasher, Kitchen and Laundry Faucets. Recessed lighting was added to ALL bedrooms, downstairs office, living room, kitchen/dining. Many of the wall switches were upgraded to vacancy sensors (or timers) and/or dimmers. Five-inch baseboards, window casings, and extensive crown molding. The upstairs ceiling fans were upgraded and built-in wall remotes added. All can lights have been switched to LEDs. Built-in surround sound in the Living Room, Family Room, Courtyard and Backyard, with built-in Air-Bus wall Amps that operate and control 3 zones. The 1/2 bath was recently remodeled, the garage floors were ungraded and storage cabinets added – holy cow! An extensive trail system in the 1,400-acre Rancho La Costa Preserve nearby enables hikers and mountain bikers to go for miles! Additionally, you will be a member of the Oaks Club which has activities like Movie Night, Poker Night, and the Annual BBQ!
The original owner of this premier Plan 2 was the CFO of Davidson Communities, and added over $100,000 in custom upgrades you probably won’t find anywhere else. The smooth-finish mission-style wall texture throughout, a custom door and window in the third-car garage that face the courtyard, ‘rainforest’ marble counters in primary bath, plus one of the best easterly views in the tract! The sleek white kitchen is adorned with Blue Pearl granite, stainless appliances, and walk-in pantry. En-suite bedroom downstairs too! Owned solar, central A/C, and 75-gallon water-heater. Between the backyard and courtyard, there is ample private outdoor space, plus you can hike or bike the miles of local preserve trails!
Encinitas schools too – wow! An extensive trail system in the 1,400-acre Rancho La Costa Preserve nearby enables hikers and mountain bikers to go for miles! Additionally, you will be a member of the Oaks Club which has activities like Movie Night, Poker Night, and the Annual BBQ!
The 33 panel Solar System produces 17,000MWh/year and powers two wall chargers for EVs. Four motorized sunshades were added (very effective), and recently replaced appliances include: Hot Water Heater, Microwave, Dishwasher, Kitchen and Laundry Faucets. Recessed lighting was added to ALL bedrooms, downstairs office, living room, kitchen/dining. Many of the wall switches were upgraded to vacancy sensors (or timers) and/or dimmers. Five-inch baseboards, window casings, and extensive crown molding. The upstairs ceiling fans were upgraded and built-in wall remotes added. All can lights have been switched to LEDs. Built-in surround sound in the Living Room, Family Room, Courtyard and Backyard, with built-in Air-Bus wall Amps that operate and control 3 zones. The 1/2 bath was recently remodeled, the garage floors were ungraded and storage cabinets added – holy cow!
Last week, we saw here how the number of July sales has been plummeting, and with three days to go in the month, we are now at 119 NSDCC sales – which means we will end up with around 40% to 50% of last year’s July sales.
We also hear about how inventory is rapidly rising in other areas of the country. How are we doing here?
Here are the recent monthly counts of NSDCC July listings:
2017: 412
2018: 433
2019: 445
2020: 468
2021: 349
2022: 215 so far.
The NSDCC sales really aren’t bad, considering how few new listings are coming to market.
There is a bit of a backlog of sellers hoping to get lucky, but they will likely cancel their listing in the next month or two and try again next year, rather than give it away.
Between now and February, there will probably be months when we don’t reach 100 NSDCC sales, and it will be because there won’t be enough homes available to sell!
Last month I guessed we’ll be 400+ at the end of the year, or about the same as February. If our local Case-Shiller Index drops 0.5% per month for the next seven readings, we’d still be in positive territory for 2022. We haven’t had a negative MoM reading since December, 2018.
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes
Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
Jun
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
Jul
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%
Jan ’22
383.92
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.45
+4.6%
+29.2%
Mar
416.64
+3.8%
+29.9%
Apr
426.08
+2.3%
+28.5%
May
428.32
+0.5%
+25.6%
Housing data for May 2022 continued strong, as price gains decelerated slightly from very high levels,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose by 19.7% for the 12 months ended May, down from April’s 20.6% year-over-year gain. We see a similar pattern in the 10-City Composite (up 19.0% in May vs. 19.6% in April) and in the 20-City Composite (+20.5% vs. +21.2%). Despite this deceleration, growth rates are still extremely robust, with all three composites at or above the 98th percentile historically.
Here’s a look at the difference between the average price per square foot of the active and pending listings.
Of those priced under $3,000,000, it shows how the more-expensive superior properties are the ones going into escrow – and the inferior properties aren’t, even when priced less. Apparently, the gap between them isn’t big enough yet!
NSDCC Actives & Pendings Average List Price per SF
Price Range
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
NSDCC Pending Listings
Avg. LP/sf
$0-$1.5M
53
$755/sf
22
$824/sf
$1.5M – $2.0M
83
$787/sf
29
$1,030/sf
$2.0M – $3.0M
108
$883/sf
63
$1,044/sf
$3.0M – $4.0M
65
$1,200/sf
26
$1,093/sf
$4.0M+
178
$1,701/sf
27
$1,528/sf
Click ‘more…’ below to see the trends of the average LP/sf in each price range.
The traditional spread between the 10-year Treasury Yield and the 30-yr fixed mortgage rate has been 1.75%. Today it is 2.7%, which sure makes it look like the next Fed increase is already priced in. This week, we will see if mortgage rates will moderate and stay in the fives after the Fed bumps again!
When 10yr Treasury yields are dropping, mortgage rates are typically following, even if the proportion can vary. Mortgages definitely don’t benefit as much when it comes to overseas developments, but the sense of a big picture reversal is the same in either case. By Friday afternoon, the average mortgage rate was just a hair lower than those seen in early July. You’d have to go back another month to see anything lower.
Any conversation about big drops in rates requires an asterisk right now. Rate quotes can vary greatly depending on the scenario and the lender, but they’re not necessarily as different as they may seem. The reason is the role of “upfront costs” in the current market. Historically, it tends to make more financial sense to avoid paying additional upfront costs (aka “points”) in exchange for a lower rate. Many borrowers may still agree.
Nonetheless, points are packing a bigger punch than normal due to trading levels in the bond market, and that is having an impact on many loan quotes. For example, there are some scenarios where a single discount point can drop the rate by more than half a percent. Historically, that point would only be worth 0.25%.
There’s no universal recommendation here. If you find yourself comparing one quote to another, just make sure you’re taking the upfront costs into consideration.
The biggest barrier to prices going down is that sales are needed to prove it.
Back in the old days when we had foreclosures, the banking rules forced lenders to keep selling their REOs, regardless of price.
But who or what is going to force regular homeowners to sell for whatever the market will bear? Anyone who needs money can borrow against their sizable equity, and virtually everyone who can’t get their price today will blame it on everything but their price (“I have comps!”) and wait for a sunnier day.
How bad will sales get?
Here are the NSDCC sales counts from recent months of July:
2017: 260
2018: 271
2019: 281
2020: 351
2021: 312
We’ve only had 103 NSDCC sales this month, with a week to go plus late-reporters.
Sellers get a vote in this process, and they can choose to not sell – and create the Big Standoff.
SB 1105 has already passed in the state senate, and is being debated in the assembly. According to C.A.R., it will ‘grant vast, unchecked, taxing and bonding authority to an unelected Housing Agency Board in San Diego which would consist of 6 appointed representatives’. Huh? Anything that resembles a property tax is supposed to be approved by the voters!
This bill, the San Diego Regional Equitable and Environmentally Friendly Housing Act, would establish the San Diego Regional Equitable and Environmentally Friendly Affordable Housing Agency and would state that the agency’s purpose is to increase the supply of equitable and environmentally friendly housing in the County of San Diego by providing for significantly enhanced funding and technical assistance across the regional level for equitable and environmentally friendly housing projects and programs, equitable housing preservation, and rental protection programs, as specified. The bill would require a board composed of 6 voting members who are primary or alternate members of the San Diego Association of Governments, as specified, to govern the agency.
This bill would authorize the agency to, among other things, incur and issue indebtedness, place various measures on the ballot in the County of San Diego and its incorporated cities to raise and allocate funds, in accordance with applicable constitutional requirements, and to issue general obligation bonds secured by the levy of ad valorem property taxes, for purposes of producing and preserving equitable and environmentally friendly housing and supporting rental protection activities, as specified. Among the funding measures, the bill would authorize the agency to impose a parcel tax, a gross receipts business license tax, a special business tax, specified special taxes on real property, and a commercial linkage fee, as defined. The bill would also authorize local jurisdictions within San Diego County to impose a special documentary transfer tax, as specified, and authorize those local jurisdictions to remit proceeds of the tax to the agency to support the purposes of the agency. The bill would require that revenue generated by the agency pursuant to these provisions be used for specified housing purposes and require the agency to distribute those funds in accordance with specified requirements and subject to a specified priority. The bill would require the board to provide for regular financial audits of the agency’s accounts and records and to provide for financial reports.
The bill would require a development proponent for a development funded by the agency pursuant to these provisions to require, in contracts with construction contractors, that certain wage and labor standards will be met, including a requirement that all construction workers be paid at least the general prevailing rate of wages, as specified. The bill would require a development proponent to certify to the agency that those standards will be met in project construction. By expanding the crime of perjury, the bill would impose a state-mandated local program. The bill would also prohibit the agency from placing a measure on the ballot to raise revenue for the agency unless the agency has entered into a countywide project labor agreement with the San Diego County Building and Construction Trades Council, as specified.
The bill would include findings that changes proposed by this bill address a matter of statewide concern rather than a municipal affair and, therefore, apply to all cities in the County of San Diego, including charter cities.
The reason for breaking down the active and pending listings by zip code is to give the readers a closer look at their neighborhood stats.
In the recent years prior to the pandemic, the actives/pendings in Rancho Santa Fe ran at a 10:1 pace. Nobody is in a hurry there, they don’t have to sell, and they’re not going to give it away. Those days appear to be coming back.
The median list price of those RSF actives is $5,995,000 – is anyone going to feel sorry for them? Probably not. Does it reflect what is going on in the rest of the area? Not really – the other areas are mostly around a 2:1 ratio (except La Jolla) which has been our standard for a healthy market and pretty good, all considered.
In 2020, we had 400+ pendings from June 22nd to November 30th – with a peak of 491 pendings on September 7, 2020.
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
Trustindex verifies that the original source of the review is Google.
This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
