Inventory has exploded everywhere…..except San Diego, and look at the MoM drop. The number of homes for sale last month was cut in half – down to 1,810 active listings in a county of 3.3 million people!
The inventory crisis is likely to continue, and keep pricing elevated.
How does the current environment compare to previous years? IT DOESN’T – we’ve never seen anything like this. Here are the annual stats including a couple of early years for perspective:
San Diego County Detached Homes, Annual
Year
Number of Listings
Median List Price
Number of $2M+ Listings
% of Total
2003
34,229
$449,876
311
0.9%
2009
34,172
$410,000
261
0.8%
2015
35,318
$579,000
653
1.8%
2016
35,806
$600,000
693
1.9%
2017
33,547
$640,000
818
2.4%
2018
35,570
$675,000
895
2.5%
2019
33,352
$695,000
880
2.6%
2020
29,524
$749,000
1,239
4.2%
2021
28,587
$849,000
2,194
7.7%
2022
25,025
$949,900
2,030
8.1%
San Diego County had been listing 33,000 to 35,000 homes for sale every year for decades. Now we’re down to 25,000 annually….or less?
The media will keep publishing national stories about exploding inventory and plummeting prices which will only scare off many potential sellers – and they only need to hear it once or twice before postponing their plans to some indefinite date in the future. If you thought it was a ‘bad time’ to sell, wouldn’t you?
But when is the best time to sell your house?
When everyone else isn’t!
Today there are only 1,761 houses for sale countywide, and the median list price is $1,099,000!
Statistically, it sounds like a good time to sell.
This is the easier part – charting the next six months.
Either the Fed will pause and delight us all, or their threat of higher rates will make buyers antsy and ready to pounce. The best-looking inventory usually happens in springtime, so all the necessary the ingredients for a selling-season surge should come together nicely.
Even though I’ve had a record amount of inquiries already, I don’t think there will be many sales early on. The inventory of quality homes is excruciatingly low, the prices are filled with early-season exuberance, the market uncertainty is off the charts, plus come on – it’s only January 8th!
Sales in the first quarter will be done by those who go out and create them while most people are standing around, waiting to see what happens. The tougher, the better for me. This should be my favorite year ever!
For those who have moved in the last three years, Texas, Florida, and Tennessee have been popular destinations – with North Carolina making a surge last year. Here are things to know about moving there!
My guess was that the NSDCC annual sales would be +5%, and pricing +15% in 2022.
It was a tough year for prognostications!
NSDCC YoY Statistics
Year
Annual Sales
Median SP
Median SF
December Sales
Median SP
Median SF
2021
3,184
$1,900,000
2,852sf
183
$2,165,000
2,804sf
2022
1,937
$2,300,000
2,722sf
100
$1,892,500
2,596sf
Diff
-39%
+21%
-5%
-45%
-13%
-7%
The smaller square footage takes a little bit of the sting out of it, but anyone who guessed right about the 2022 statistics was just plain lucky.
I was close on the annual price increase, but it doesn’t mean much after considering what the median sales price was last month – which is now back to the mid-2021 range.
I would have been way wrong on the sales prediction, even if the frenzy would have continued. The sales between January and May – when the frenzy was still raging – were down 28% YoY. It shows how insane the market was in 2021, and how unlikely it will be that we will ever seen anything like it again.
But have you seen ANY superior homes selling for a discount yet? Me neither, and one reason is because there are so few for sale. Once we wade into the spring selling season, we’re going to see how the market has divided in two segments – superior vs. inferior properties – and how the affluent buyers will pay the price for the top-quality homes.
The big question is what the realtors will do.
Any agent can sell a creampuff – the homes that are well-located, upgraded, tuned-up, easy-to-show, and priced attractively. But how many properties are in that category? Maybe 5% to 10% max? The overall market, and the changes in these dumb statistics that everyone thinks mean something, will be made in the trenches by the listing agents.
Will they game up and provide excellent salesmanship that keeps homes selling for about the same prices? Or will they be like prancing bullfighters and just get out of the way as the buyers come barreling through with their demands for discounts?
When we look at these stats next year, we will know the answer.
There will be one overwhelming factor in selling real estate this year:
Buyers Will Want To Pay Less.
They are coming into every situation with that mindset. Whether it’s online or in person, they will be looking for ANY reason to NOT buy this house. If they can’t find one, they will at least be doing the mental math on how much money they will have to pay to customize it to their tastes……and they will want someone else to pay for it.
It’s a 180-degree change from the frenzy era when buyers just wanted to win a house. Nothing mattered during the frenzy – bad floor plans, bad locations, bad improvements, bad agents, and bad prices didn’t stop buyers from paying insane amounts OVER the asking price. And what’s worse – those are now the comps!
Will sellers adjust?
Will listing agents adjust?
Here’s the first thought to go through their mind:
Let’s add a little extra to the list price to compensate. We can always come down later!
Oh, great.
How is it playing out so far? These are NSDCC sales from the last 30 days:
These are starter homes and mid-rangers for the area – not the high-end where it’s more challenging.
It will be easy for sellers to shrug it off, and mentally prepare to sell for 2% to 4% under their list price…..because they already added it on top! But 31% of the recent sales closed for a double-digit percentage below their list price.
In the last couple of years, we’ve followed how many new listings happen in January. It’s been a good indicator of what to expect for the Spring Selling Season!
Here is some historical perspective (below). I included the stats from 2009, which was the last time the sky was falling and nobody wanted to sell their house. I would gladly take those numbers now!
For those who were thinking it’s so bad that January’s count might be single digits, there has already been seven new listings this year – though four of them were refreshed listings from last year.
Number of Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad
Year
Previous November
Previous December
January
1st Qtr
1st Half
2009
340
259
458
1,422
2,873
2019
292
234
418
1,280
2,716
2020
257
177
354
1,085
2,309
2021
240
181
289
986
2,171
2022
166
127
223
730
1,707
2023
141
82
7
?
?
Leave your guess in the comment section of the number of January listings, and whoever is closest to the actual count on February 15th will receive four tickets to a Padres game in 2023! This isn’t a fancy way for me to get your contact information and keep calling you until you buy or die. You don’t even have to leave your contact information – just check back on February 15th.
Reasons why January’s inventory will be LOWER than expected:
Sellers will wait until the market gets ‘better’.
Sellers will wait until somebody else goes first.
Sellers are distracted by a big playoff run by the Chargers.
Reasons why January’s inventory will be HIGHER than expected:
Panic selling – sellers who want to get out early in the season.
More boomers are getting older every year.
Realtors refreshing their listings more often.
There is no evidence that there will be a surge of hundreds of listings. Though there are more active listings today than there were at this time last year (265 vs 152), it only means the 4Q22 selling success rate was lower than in the frenzy years.
The guesses from last year’s contest:
142 The other Bob
181 Eddie89
201 Daniel Nicolas
210 Drew
215 Joe 222Majeed
230 Lifeisradincbad (he was a winner in 2021)
237 Curtis Kaiser
245 doughboy
250 Deckard Mehdy
259 Susie
260 Derek (the other winner in 2021)
270 Skip
278 Haile
286 Matt
290 Esteban del Rio
294 Tom
295 Rob Dawg
300 BWell_SoCal
312 big T
325 Mortgage Guy
373 Rob
The winner will be the closest guess, so leave some room around your number to heighten your chances.
Last January’s count was 30% lower than it was in 2021, to which I made this comment:
The 2022 inventory count was 2,832 (so far).
What it’s like watching a game from these seats? Here are 15 seconds:
A slow start is guaranteed this year because the existing inventory is so picked over – and those sellers aren’t budging on price. Instead, they are willing to wait…..and whether they realize it or not, they are waiting and hoping for new listings to hit the open market at prices that make their home/price look better.
It’s a big gamble in 2023.
Are the 2023 sellers going to list their home for a price that’s higher than those that have been languishing for the last 2-3 months? Or for less? If they are smart, they will list for less and getter done.
Either your list price is selling your house, or it’s selling the house down the street.
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
