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Will There Be Others?

Realtors are known to comfort buyers who have lost a bidding war by saying, “There will be others”.

But will there be?

Especially for those at the entry level of every market….where the action is the hottest.

Above are the NINE houses that sold under a million dollars between La Jolla and Carlsbad in 2022. Those on the list with a street name that starts with Don are mobile homes in Rancho Carlsbad – which by itself might make you scratch your head when you see mobiles selling for as much as $830,000!

It’s early in the new year, and of course everyone thinks that home prices are coming down fast so this problem will be cured shortly (NOT!).

So far in 2023, this is the ONLY listing of a NSDCC detached-home priced under $1,000,000:

Oh, you want a decent home too? It’s even worse for the picky buyers.

Buyers can expect that pricing of decent entry-level homes this spring will start around these numbers:

Carlsbad: $1,250,000

Encinitas: $1,350,000

Carmel Valley: $1,800,000

RSF, Solana Beach, Del Mar, La Jolla: $2,000,000+

And good luck getting your hands on one!

MLS Shenanigans

We’ve covered the ways that buyers and buyer-agents are getting battered by listing agents.

Making homes tough to show, no transparency about offers and bidding-war process (if any), below-market commissions, sandbagging listings in-house for days or weeks before exposing to general public, etc.

Some can be chalked up to inexperience or clerical errors, but most are a deliberate attempt by the listing agents to box out other agents, and limit the number of offers.

Here’s another one: MyStateMLS.com.

Agents input their listings onto this website only, which gets the property onto Zillow and Realtor.com where waiting buyers might see it. Typically, the buyer-agents are using their local MLS to track the new listings, so they’re not watching Zillow or Realtor.com (and certainly not some unknown MLS website).

It has to be a deliberate attempt by the listing agents to limit the exposure to fellow agents, with the intent to reach buyers directly and double-end the commission.

New-Listing Update

The action on the new listing has been good so far. The hot listings usually have a views-to-saves ratio of 10:1, and mine is 29:1 above. Even though the house has a fantastic view, buyers don’t want a project, and it emphasizes how important staging is today. Because this house needs everything, I didn’t think staging was worth it here, but it will be a rare exception.

I have two written offers in hand now, and 2-3 more expected.

I don’t think the eventual sales price will be way over list either.  Though there has been sales in the neighborhood as high as $2,100,000, everyone has agreed that we’re at full retail. This isn’t helping either:

Inventory Watch

The new listings are trickling in but no flood yet – and it’s never been so unlikely that a flood is coming.

There are a few more active listings sitting around unsold, but last year was unusual in how fast homes were selling this early in the season.  Today’s buyers are still in shellshock over how few choices there are available (and how high the prices are), so it may take a few weeks before the frenzy is obvious to civilians:

Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad

Year
# of January Listings
Total Active Listings, First Week of February
2019
418
792
2020
354
661
2021
289
371
2022
223
179
2023
181
275

There will be a few more January listings inputted this year, but it probably won’t get to 200 – making it the lowest number of January listings ever. Before the pandemic, we regularly had twice as many listings in January as we will have this year.

The scariest part is that these low-inventory conditions will probably continue for years to come.

(more…)

Frenzy Is Back

You might think that the frenzy conditions are starting to percolate again after watching this video! There were 13 offers submitted, and the winner had agreed to pay $1,410,000. But once they found that it needed a roof and other stuff, they agreed to a $40,000 reduction in price.

Plus it features the first time I have fallen down while filming!

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