I think most agents would agree that once their new listing has been on the open market – and unsold – for two weeks, the action dies down considerably.
Then the showings, if any, become vague and laborious because all of the motivated buyers have already seen it and passed. All that’s left is the occasional newcomer to the game who just begun their journey of learning the market. Or it’s a buyer-agent who is using this listing to set up the showing, and selling, of the better-priced home down the street or around the corner.
It’s made worse by the lack of quality buyer-agents. The older agents can’t keep up any more, and they have been retired – whether they know it yet or not. The kids don’t have enough experience or training.
The marketplace has been reduced to a single sentence. “Do you have any questions?”
The buyer’s answer is almost always the same…..”No”, and off they go.
The only thing left to wonder is whether there will be any negative impact from unsold listings stacking up everywhere. Will it bother the buyers who are still engaged?
Will they forget all about them, or come back later and lowball them?
Because lowballing is such a forgotten sport, I’ll guess that we will just get used to unsold listings laying around. Rancho Santa Fe is slowly getting back to its pre-covid norms of having a 10:1 ratio of actives-to-pendings (78:12 today), and it doesn’t appear to bother anyone. It’s accepted.
Because I feel the need to analyze everything, I’m going to institute a new gauge today and follow it over time to see the impact.
It looked like we were going to have 400 active listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad by the end of February. We haven’t quite hit it yet (though if you count the off-market listings, we’re well over 400 today).
Let’s call the new gauge the Stale Factor:
NSDCC Active Listings: 391
NSDCC Active Listings with 15+ days-on-market: 281
We have 281/391 = 72% of the active listings have been on the open market for more than two weeks.
It seems like a lot, doesn’t it?
Let’s see if the spring selling season starts picking up and the percentage goes down…or not.
Upgrading from the original look to what buyers want today just takes money. Thankfully, our sellers expected to do a major tune-up – and they followed our advice and went all in!
Robbie Krieger is playing each Doors album in their entirety once a month at the Whiskey-A-Go-Go where the Doors were once the house band back in the day!
A nice pop in the percentage of sales closing over their list price – much like last February.
Last year, the peak month was March, and then it dropped in half by summertime.
NSDCC Monthly Sales & Pricing
Sales last month didn’t get close to last February, but the pricing held up. It wasn’t because there weren’t the houses to buy – the inventory was higher YoY.
It’s because fewer homes for sale were worthy of purchase.
Here was the big winner that sold for 40% OVER THE LIST PRICE. The buyer was from Mountain View, CA:
It’s a hot topic among real estate agents, but how widespread are the off-market sales?
We saw that in the last blog post that 155 NSDCC homes that have gone pending this year have already closed escrow. But let’s back it up to get a bigger sample and look at all of the 257 NSDCC sales in 2025 – including those that went pending last year.
Of the 257 sales, only 21 of them were sold off market, or 8% of the total number of sales.
Of the 21, only EIGHT were Compass listings. We’re not the only one!
Here is the crazy stat: Of the 21 off-market sales, TEN were sold to an outside brokerage!
It’s going to be rare when an agent takes a listing and just happens to have a buyer for it. Some of these double-enders are going to be the reverse – when an agent has a buyer and solicits sellers in the buyers’ desired area and gets lucky to find a deal. Most agents will input that sale as representing both parties even if they didn’t have a formal listing agreement with the seller – which is supposed to be required for MLS input (nobody checks them).
When representing a seller, I’m still not a fan of doing an off-market sale.
The only one we did was a year ago when the sellers agreed with me that this price may never happen again because it was based on another off-market pending sale of the same model (we closed first):
I wouldn’t want to be trying to sell for $2,175,000 in there today!
While there may be an occasional good reason to sell off-market, it’s not a big segment of the total sales. Reffkin said yesterday that 94% of Compass listings sell from open-market exposure via the MLS, and that will probably continue.
But it’s a sexy topic!
The NAR/MLS rules are the problem. In the near future, Compass and other brokerages will likely break away from NAR/MLS restrictions and use our website to expose our listings to the market – and/or we make a deal to share our listings with a national entity like homes.com.
It’s never been so important for home sellers to be bold and decisive when selling their house. Buyers are waiting patiently for new listings, and they will immediately jump at anything that looks great and is priced attractively – take advantage!
There have been 155 NSDCC listings that went pending this year that have already closed escrow. Their median is 19 days on market!
For a relatively higher-end market, it’s impressive that buyers react that quickly and it blows a hole in the idea that higher-end markets take longer to sell. For the same time period last year, the median was the same – 19 days on market!
Look at the difference – MOST of the homes (63%) found a buyer in the first 19 days, and they are getting all the money too:
Those sellers who insist on fighting the trend can look forward to a discount.
Here are the 58 homes that took 20+ days to find their buyer. Not only do they NOT know how much of a discount is coming, but the 20+ days could be months…and months:
Once a home is for sale but not selling, how do you know what to do?
Both buyers and sellers can apply my List-Price Accuracy Gauge:
Once the home is on the open market, if it is having….
Showings and offers, you are within 5% of being right on price.
Showings but no offers, you are 5% to 10% wrong on price.
No showings, then you are more than 10% wrong on price.
It’s nothing personal, it’s just a simple guide to know how close the price is to being right.
The serious buyers rush out the first week to take a look, but after that it’s crickets, with only an occasional visitor. It is tough for sellers to cope, or make adjustments. But once the initial urgency has run out, you have to do something – don’t just sit there.
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How quickly should sellers make adjustments? The DOM clock is ticking!
0-14 days on market – Hot property, and when the sellers have their maximum negotiating power.
14-30 days on market – Buyers get suspicious, want to pay under list.
30+ days on market – Buyers will be expecting deep discounts, or ignore it altogether.
After being unsold for two weeks, sellers will suspect that something is wrong. But it is natural to resist changing the price and instead blame everything else – especially the listing agent.
Sellers, and agents, need to shake that off and act quickly to keep the urgency higher. The first price reduction should be for at least 5% and happen in the first 15-30 days for maximum effectiveness. If the home doesn’t sell in the next two weeks, then another 5% is in order, and by then the fluff is eliminated.
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Where do sellers go wrong? They don’t properly price in the negatives.
Typically sellers just pick apart the comps to convince themselves why their home is the best around, and then settle on a list price that will show everyone who’s the boss. If you don’t have any negatives, then you probably will get your price! But typically sellers are forced to come to grips with the negatives of their house, and adjust accordingly.
Do sellers have to lower their price? No, not neccesarily.
There are other alternatives:
1. Make your house easier to show. Listing agents who insist on buyers jumping several hurdles just to see the home aren’t realistic about today’s market conditions. Make the home easy to see!
2. Fix the problems. New carpet and paint is the best thing you can do: 1) it looks clean, 2) it smells new, 3) you have to clean out your house to install it, and 4) you are managing a business transaction now – it is the logical solution. Utilize staging too.
3. Improve the internet presence. Have at least a 12-25 hi-res photos plus a simple youtube tour.
4.Wait for the market to catch up. If unsold for 60+ days, cancel and try again later – probably next year.
5. Reset the Days-on-Market stat. As long as the MLS allows agents to refresh their listings, then it’s in the best interest of the seller to reset the DOM. It is a gimmick, and instead sellers should concentrate on creating real value for buyers – that’s what will cause them to pay more.
The longer it takes to sell, the more discount the buyers will be expecting – usually about a 1% off for each week on the market. When other homes are flying off the market, the buyers’ obvious conclusion is that your price is wrong, and they load up the lowball offers.
Even if you complete one or all of the five ideas above, don’t be surprised if you need to lower the price too. Keep it attractive!
This 21,410sf property has hosted over 60 NBA players, including Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, and Damian Lillard. The NBA-sized basketball court in the basement comes complete with a pro scoreboard, loft, locker room with five bathrooms, and private parking. But that’s not all—there’s a $400,000 “Jordan Room”, showcasing over 290 rare Michael Jordan sneakers in a museum-quality display!
Other insane features include a Golf simulator, 9-hole putting green, 5 chipping pads, practice range, Jogging track wrapping around the entire property and resort style backyard!
Robert Reffkin has heard enough and wants to address the rumors:
Many of you have heard things like “Compass is trying to sell listings off-market,” and “Compass is trying to double end deals.” These misconceptions are intentionally designed to create fear in the industry.
Fiction: Compass is hurting sellers by keeping listings from the MLS. Fact: In 2024, 81% of Compass Coming Soons that sold off the MLS, sold at or above the final list price.
Fiction: Compass just wants to double-end more deals. Fact: 94% of Compass listings that sold in 2024, sold on the MLS.
To set the record straight, we want agents at every brokerage to know We Co-Broke With Everyone. By setting up a saved search for Compass Coming Soons, any agent at any brokerage can instantly receive alerts when new Compass Coming Soon listings become available.
Go to compass.com and search for listings in Coming Soon, then save your search!
The surge of active listings in January got a boost from last year’s unsolds coming right back on the market. Since then, the flow has moderated and looks somewhat sustainable if it stays at this pace.
It’s fairly easy to describe the NSDCC market today. The lower-end is warm/hot, and the higher-end is not:
:
The higher-end crowd (sellers and agents) want to believe that it just takes longer to sell these days, and they are content to wait it out. After all, they aren’t going to give it away!
It seems like there are enough sales happening under $4,000,000 that buyers aren’t being dangerously affected by more homes on the market. If there was going to be some reaction to additional inventory, you’d think it would be in the more-sensitive Under-$4M buyers.
My prediction of 15% to 20% more inventory hasn’t come true…..yet:
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
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William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
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