What a great day! Delivering pies and talking real estate – what a privilege!
Talking points you might hear over Thanksgiving dinner.
– It’s too unaffordable. Prices have to adjust.
There will be the occasional seller who gets caught in a pinch and has to sell that day – and might take a 10% to 20% discount. All you have to do is be there on that day. It is why you have a realtor!
But will it be a superior home on a premium lot? Highly unlikely – those owners know what they got.
Buyers need to decide: Are you a lowballer, or are you trying to buy a high-quality property? It’s either/or.
Bottome line: Prices may adjust downward on the inferior properties. Take your chances.
– There seems to be more homes for sale – is it the big slowdown?
As time goes on and the market gets tighter, it will be natural for sellers to price too high and cause inventory to grow. It’s easier than ever to overprice and miss the market! What to do?
Spruce up the home and price attractively, which is about where the comps are….and not 5% to 10% higher.
Tip: Lately the local prices have been going up about 0.5% per month. But once a home is on the open market, the buyer expectations drop about 1% per week on price.
Once as home has been on the market for 2-3 weeks, there might be some negotiations on price!
– Are commissions negotiable now?
Yes, absolutely and agents who are desperate and have no skills will be happy to represent you for 1% or less. It’s a ripoff. Find an agent who will produce beyond expectations. The best thing to come out of these lawsuits is that consumers will investigate agents more thoroughly!
Get Good Help!
If it gets hot, just call me. I’m happy to talk to people on the phone!
Yesterday, 2,400 Compass agents came to the Rady Shell to hear CEO Robert Reffkin discuss the accomplishments of his clients, the agents. Here are this year’s facts to plug into our presentations:
Compass #1 in sales volume nationwide last two years.
Compass agents sell 2.5x the average agent.
Retention – 98% of Compass agents stayed last year, and 300 who left have come back.
$1.5 billion invested into the agent/client platform.
500+ people in the engineering department improving tech daily.
$1.0 billion in Compass Concierge money spent to maximize the sales price for sellers.
$1 trillion in sales volume in less than ten years.
High tech and high touch!
The support that Compass agents receive from the brokerage enables us to be more effective with helping our clients, and run our businesses with high efficiency!
Robert is one heck of a leader. This year, he has visited 40 metro areas to meet with agents in most of the 200+ Compass offices. Then on the weekends, he takes his wife and three little kids to open houses around the NYC area in support of Compass agents – including on Mother’s Day!
But in the end, it is up to the individual agents to perfect their own presentations. The best thing any leader can do to support highly competitive people is to create a contest!
There will be local, regional, and national prizes for the agents who deliver the most buyer-broker agreements and sales in 2024 – with the top ten agents being flown to NYC for dinner at Robert’s home!
The first week after the realtor-lawsuit verdict went as expected – chaos, doom, and no sexy alternatives. It will take years to appeal, but it won’t matter how it turns out. Buyers are going to be paying their agents.
If sellers aren’t obligated to pay any commission to the buyer-agents, will they appreciate the benefit of incentivizing buyer-agents with a bounty, or reward? Probably not, unless their listing agent makes it very clear, and insists on it.
It is more likely that listing agents won’t push it, and because sellers naturally will want to pay less commission and not more, they will list for 2.5% or 3% and hope for the best. Both will shrug it off, and joke about how it’s about time commissions came down!
It will be a grave mistake.
Why? Because the buyer-broker agreement is a disaster:
Buyers won’t like it.
Agents won’t like it.
The market won’t like it.
Today’s buyers are picky, and you can’t blame them. They’ve had to endure +40% on prices, +200% on interest rates, and -50% on inventory…..talk about challenging!
The buyer-broker agreement will be a disaster because both agents and buyers will sign a short-term arrangement and hope the seller might kick in some of the commission. But then everyone will go back to doing it the same way we always have – refreshing your feed every hour and praying!
The real opportunity will be for buyers to hire an aggressive buyer-agent who does more than just watch the MLS. When a seller hires a listing agent, they get a thorough marketing campaign to source every potential buyer in the market. Buyer-agents can do the same, in reverse!
The buyer-agents who offer a rifle-shot soliciting of specific homes that fit the needs perfectly of their buyers will eventually find one. If an aggressive buyer-agent brings the complete package to the seller’s table without having to mess with a full listing, they will likely get an audience. It could even take the place of listing agents!
Because auctions aren’t close yet, this could be what changes the world of residential resales!
It will mean more off-market sales, which means more fuzzy comps because not much if anything is known about the home’s condition. But if it catches fire and the MLS or a rogue search portal insists on buyer-agents reporting everything about their sales including photos, we could still have a database full of accurate market data. But if we don’t, we don’t – good luck everybody!
Market conditions in the off-season will be tepid but temporary – buyers will be lying in the weeds, and sellers should wait until the 2024 Spring Selling Season.
I don’t know how this sale above happened, and it doesn’t matter. All that we know is that the seller took an offer that was 29% below the list price. It’s highly unlikely that you or I will get that kind of deal, but you can’t win if you don’t play.
The buyer’s agent is from Laguna Beach and got her real estate license in 2020 so it’s unlikely she had some super-duper sales tricks to convince the seller to dump 29% on price. Either they just happened to be in the right place at the right time, or the seller needed to sell that day.
The chance of you getting a premium home at a discount is low – probably less than 5%. But you can’t win if you don’t play! Make offers, the off-season is upon us!
Are you wondering what it is like being a buyer these days – and how we can asisist you?
This is a good example. Our buyer above made offers on seven different homes over the last year before winning the right home, at the right price. We survived a five-offer bidding war when the sellers accepted our offer of $1,340,000, then we worked them down by $50,000 after our inspection.
At $1,290,000 for 1,801sf, I think it will be one of the better buys in Carlsbad this year:
The minute I saw this address I knew that it would have a big ocean view because I sold one in here before. It turns out, I sold this very home in 2001 for $257,000 when it was all-original (I rep’d the seller then). It has since sold for $461,000 in 2005, $429,000 in 2014, $613,000 in 2018, and $979,000 on Thursday.
My buyer is out-of-state and made the offer based on this video – and then came for the home inspection:
Even though I’ve had a record amount of inquiries already, I don’t think there will be many sales early on. The inventory of quality homes is excruciatingly low, the prices are filled with early-season exuberance, the market uncertainty is off the charts, plus come on – it’s only January 8th!
Sales in the first quarter will be done by those who go out and create them while most people are standing around, waiting to see what happens. The tougher, the better for me. This should be my favorite year ever!
Our new listing in Carmel Valley! Open 12-3 this weekend.
Check out this attractively-priced Portico home with fully remodeled kitchen, hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms + loft and downstairs den, sumptuous primary suite with two walk-in closets, and upstairs laundry room. New paint and carpet, private yard, and cool front porch to watch the balloons go by! Live here and send your kids to Solana Ranch Elementary School – verified with the school district on Nov. 16th. The community pool/clubhouse is like a 5-star resort! It’s a good distance away from Carmel Valley Road too. This model sold for $2,086,000 on May 9th. Look at the savings – our list price is 20% off, and the 30-yr jumbo rate is back down in the 5s! Fed governor Bullard said today that the Fed Funds rate might have to go 1% to 3% higher. This home is the best discounted price/low rate combo you’ll see in the next 1-2 years! Only $1,675,000.
I tell potential home buyers to keep looking because you never know when you will find the right house – which is the most important part of the equation. Most will convince themselves that it will be easier to find the right house if prices came down, and besides, the current crop isn’t that interesting.
To keep it simple, let’s just calculate how mortgage rates have changed the equation:
Purchase Price: $2,000,000
Loan Amount: $1,600,000
30-yr jumbo rate: 3%
Monthly pmt: $6,746
Buyers who expect the sellers to make up the entire difference with a lower sales price will have to wait until they can find a home that meets this description:
Purchase Price: $1,400,000
Loan Amount: $1,120,000
30-yr jumbo rate: 6%
Monthly pmt: $6,715
If home prices come down 30%, it will enable buyers to buy the same house for the same monthly payment – and with a $120,000 smaller down payment too. If it happened over the next five years, it means we only need to drop about 6% per year, and we’ve already dropped more than that in 2022.
Or let’s say you want to roll back to pre-pandemic pricing.
NSDCC homes that sold in February, 2020 closed at a median of $509/sf, and last month the median was $793/sf which means we’d need a 36% decline to get back to pre-pandemic pricing.
How are you going to play it?
Are you going to wait until you actually see homes selling for 30% to 36% off to get back into the game?
Are are you going to wait until rates come back to 3%?
Or do we acknowledge that the buyers who have more horsepower are going to jump back in sooner, and there’s not much chance of prices dropping the full 30% to 36%? The highly-motivated affluent folks will probably be satisfied with 20% off, and they will derail a full decline. It’s what happened in 2012.
Can you live with 20% off?
Because if you can, then you need to stay in the game.
If the #1 variable is buying the right house, then #2 is timing.
I think the affluent will be looking next spring, and if they find a suitable house, they are going to buy it. By then, some of the statistical pricing gauges will be showing 10% to 20% declines, either nationally or in isolated markets. Because the local pricing isn’t that nuanced and buyers just want a house, they will decide that’s close enough and go ahead with the purchase.
To support my suspicion, I’ll note that during the frenzy, it was the same mentality, just in reverse.
When people found the right house, they just paid whatever it took – even if it meant paying $500,000 to $1,000,000 over the list price! Nothing else mattered besides getting the right house.
Most buyers won’t believe their eyes, and the volume will be thin. But sellers will appreciate any momentum and be encouraged to price their home for about what they thought they could get, with not much discount. Buyers who want discounts will be relegated to scouring through the dent-and-scratch bin, or hope that moving during the off-season might be more fruitful. Great for them.
