One-Story Premiums

2016-04-10 15.23.25

Richard and I were discussing the phenomenon of houses selling for prices that are well-above comps – and how they almost always end up being all-cash sales.

Back in the day, the cash buyers always demanded the best deals – figuring that because they were paying cash, they somehow deserved a better price.  But today, cash buyers are throwing around big money to get what they want.

What do they want?

What do they need?

We know that the one-story homes have always been popular, especially with seniors. Guess who has all the money? Yep – the older set.

But there is more to it. Buyers get pickier as prices go up, and now they want everything.  You can’t blame them – we are at record prices!

My rule-of-thumb has been that one-story houses sell for a 10% premium over two-story houses. But I think the gap is increasing, and for single-level houses that also have the other valued features like 3-car garage, view, and a low-maintenance but attractive yard, there is a combo premium too.

Part of the pricing pressure is due to the inventory differences. Here’s a look at South Carlsbad over the last six months:

Detached-Home Listings in 92009 and 92011

Type
ACT Listings
Avg. LP/sf
SOLDS last 6 mo.
Avg SP/sf
SP:LP
One-Story
26
$425/sf
67
$418/sf
98%
Two-Story
133
$355/sf
301
$337/sf
95%

If you prefer one-story homes, there aren’t many to consider, and the cost-per-sf premium of the solds is 24%!

When analyzing the comps, you can’t compare 1-story and 2-story homes together – they are two separate markets.

Here are two examples of one-story homes listed yesterday:

6678 Cabela, Carlsbad, 92011

6387 Huntington, Carlsbad, 92009

You can buy two-story homes that are 600-800sf larger nearby for the same price – or less.  But because both of these have other premium features (views, lower-maintenance yards, 3-car, and no pools), and the selection of one-story houses is scant, these two stand a good chance of selling promptly!

With 10,000 baby boomers turning 65 years old every day, it’s understandable that one-story homes are fetching a premium, which today appears to be 10% to 20% above two-story homes.

What is the combo premium for the one-story houses with the extras?  It has to be another 10% minimum, and for those that have it all, there is no ceiling.

It means that the method of selling will determine the outcome.

If the seller hires a regular realtor who compares the super-duper one-story to other two-story homes nearby, there will be money left on the table.

This is where the auction format could really pay off. Bidders are uncertain about calculating the value of the extra features, and getting them into a competitive environment will cause them to pay whatever it takes to win.

Get good help – hire a realtor who can evaluate the premiums, and create an auction-like format to ensure top dollar!

“Aging Tsunami”

bb

The population of aging baby boomers in California will double by 2050.  Downsizing will be a hot topic, and one-story homes will be very popular!  Will we see baby-boomer communes?

From the beach party movies of the 1960s to the hippies of the 1970s and Silicon Valley’s baby billionaires today, California has long projected a youthful ambiance.

That’s about to change in a big way. The aging of California’s huge post-World War II baby-boom generation, combined with plummeting birth and immigration rates, means the Golden State is quickly going gray.

A huge growth in the over-65 population, from about 4.5 million today to more than 11 million by 2050 – nearly a quarter of the state’s residents then – will disrupt labor markets as it imposes major new costs on taxpayers for health care and other services.

It could also alter the state’s politics as the elderly become a decisive voting bloc, not only because of rising numbers but because the propensity to vote increases with age.

First, the numbers.

Roughly 11 percent of the nearly 40 million Californians today are 65-plus. The state Department of Finance estimates that by 2020, the over-65 cohort will rise to 15 percent, then to nearly 20 percent by 2030, when the youngest of the baby boomers will pass 65, and reach 22.3 percent by 2050, double the current proportion.

One state document puts it this way: “California will surpass the national average for age by 2040 even though it is currently the sixth youngest state in the nation with only 11 percent of its population 65 and older.

Read full article here – many interesting conclusions:

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/dan-walters/article45009978.html#

One-Story Deal!

yard

My new one-story listing in Northeast Carlsbad, where almost 15,000 people live in this zip code. But there are only 13 houses for sale in the 92010 – and this house is the least expensive! Open house Saturday and Sunday, 12-3pm:

It’s $30,000 under zestimate too – holy salisbury steak!

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4431-Salisbury-Dr-Carlsbad-CA-92010/16650564_zpid/

Secret Weapon

7249-ocotillo-st-016_web

Down the hill yesterday, there was a competing open house of a smaller 2,400sf single-level with a west view – their list price is $699,900.  If you don’t need a big house and can live with some freeway noise, that would look like a deal.

Yet, it must have made my $1,119,000 listing look good – I have two offers in hand, and a third expected today.

Sunday Open House

7249-ocotillo-st-076

If you are in the Santee area (just 20 minutes down the 52 from La Jolla!) on Sunday, come by our open house at 7249 Ocotillo St. between 12-3pm.

Those looking for a newer single-story house with tremendous day and night views will be impressed!

Kayla will be providing updates via the company instagram account, @klingerealty.

http://www.zillow.com/homes/7249-ocotillo,-santee_rb/?

Here is the 3D tour:

7249 Ocotillo Street

Happy Valentine’s Day

The selling season is heating up, and Kayla promises to make more appearances this year, so….

  1.  Keep reading the blog!
  2.  When you, or someone you know, if thinking of moving, we’d sure appreciate a call or text at (858) 997-3801.

Looking for a sweet valentine for your honey? Buy this one-story house with big view! Open house today at 7249 Ocotillo St, 12-3pm:

7249-ocotillo-st-018

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7249-Ocotillo-St-Santee-CA-92071/84146924_zpid/

More Multi-Gen

This is an increasing trend that has many effects on the overall market – both good and bad. From cnbc.com:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/08/under-one-roof-multigenerational-housing-big-for-builders.html

An excerpt:

That’s exactly how it works for Jennifer Michaels and her mom.

“Sometimes, it’s a quick little, ‘Hey, honey how are you?’ and other times we’ll play a board game together out here, but I literally have gone three days without seeing her,” said Michaels.

Economics certainly plays into the multigenerational mindset, but there may be a cultural shift as well.

“The baby boomers were just very unique; they are really the only generation in history that would move out of the house as soon as they go out of high school or college,” said Burns.

Lucy Abbott likes the security in knowing that if she has a problem, help is just a hallway away, but that is more of an added benefit than a driver of her living situation.

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