Inventory Watch – Labor Day

by | Sep 3, 2018 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings | 2 comments

The NSDCC Actives vs. Pendings by price range:

Price Range
NSDCC Actives
NSDCC Pendings
A:P Ratio
Avg. DOM
Under $1.0M
109
62
2 to 1
38
$1.0M to $1.5M
207
129
2 to 1
45
$1.5M to $2.0M
172
64
3 to 1
67
Over $2.0M
541
65
8 to 1
105

In the past, we’ve considered a ratio of 2:1 to be about normal. Given this market and time of year, these look pretty good, except for the high-end which has always had excess supply. (more…)

NSDCC 2Q Sales

by | Jul 18, 2018 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check

Let’s examine by zip code where the market might be slowing recently. These are the detached-home sales for the second quarter, plus the current number of pendings in each area:

Area
Zip Code
Sales 2Q16
Sales 2Q17
Sales 2Q18
Pendings Today
Cardiff
92007
25
30
11
9
Carlsbad NW
92008
49
67
67
20
Carlsbad SE
92009
161
181
148
64
Carlsbad NE
92010
49
51
47
26
Carlsbad SW
92011
80
91
60
26
Del Mar
92014
55
45
47
8
Encinitas
92024
144
141
110
51
La Jolla
92037
113
105
104
42
RSF
92067
76
79
55
43
Solana Bch
92075
19
33
21
10
Carmel Vly
92130
173
153
166
55
All Above
All
944
976
836
354

If the numbers for 2Q18 are remarkably under the first two columns, and the number of pendings are so low that the 3Q18 doesn’t look promising either, then you can figure that the market is soft, and getting softer in that zip code (Cardiff, Carlsbad SW, & Encinitas).

NSDCC Actives/Pendings

by | Jul 16, 2018 | Actives/Pendings, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings

Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!

But all in all, we’re in pretty good shape today.

The active inventory hasn’t exploded, and as long as the supply stays in check, the sellers aren’t going to panic.  Do the buyers have the willingness and ability to wait it out, with no assurance it will ever get better?  Or will the lack of solid evidence keep the ball rolling, albeit at a slower pace?

Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):

Reading Date
Actives
Pendings
A+P
A/P
Oct 28, 2015
970
358
1,328
2.71
Feb 1, 2016
788
254
1,042
3.10
Mar 23, 2016
900
399
1,299
2.26
June 21, 2016
1,052
428
1,480
2.46
Aug 17, 2016
1,060
395
1,455
2.68
Dec 4, 2016
886
327
1,213
2.71
Apr 21, 2017
842
427
1,269
1.97
July 16, 2018
973
357
1,330
2.73

NSDCC Actives Median Price = $2,288,045

NSDCC Pendings Median Price = $1,395,000

Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000 (which are the same ratios as the last reading in April, 2017).

Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area:

Area
Zip Code
June
Aug
Dec
Apr
Act/Pend Today
Cardiff
92007
2.3
3.5
1.1
1.0
2.5
Carlsbad NW
92008
2.0
2.3
1.3
1.2
2.9
Carlsbad SE
92009
1.6
2.0
1.9
1.0
1.3
Carlsbad NE
92010
0.7
0.9
1.3
0.9
1.1
Carlsbad SW
92011
1.6
1.5
1.3
1.1
2.4
Del Mar
92014
3.2
2.5
4.9
3.3
9.4
Encinitas
92024
1.3
1.8
1.8
1.6
2.0
La Jolla
92037
4.8
4.4
4.4
3.7
4.4
RSF
92067
8.2
6.3
6.3
5.2
4.6
Solana Bch
92075
2.9
3.9
2.7
1.5
2.0
Carmel Vly
92130
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.1
1.9
All Above
All
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.0
2.7

These stats are going to bounce around, so there isn’t anything here that gets me overly concerned.

Del Mar has always been a smaller, expensive subset (just eight pendings today), La Jolla is in line with their recent past, and RSF is as good as it’s been in years. Everything else is around the regular 2.0 ratio for a normal market.

Inventory Watch

by | Jul 9, 2018 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check | 1 comment

The pending counts have been dropping precipitously since June 11:

NSDCC All: -15%

Under-$1,000,000: -29%

While a lower number of pendings can be due to more closings from the fat part of the selling season, it not like we’re setting any sales records either.  The NSDCC June sales are down 20%, year-over-year, just like they were in May.

Get Good Help!

(more…)

Inventory Watch

by | Apr 2, 2018 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings

Here are the new actives and pendings for the last six weeks, and how they compare to previous years:

Week
2015 A/P
2016 A/P
2017 A/P
2018 A/P
Feb
83/64
80/72
66/73
87/57
Mar
99/68
123/52
102/66
84/62
Mar
93/76
101/75
99/59
107/67
Mar
101/84
90/75
93/82
88/59
Mar
89/81
94/64
82/60
99/55
Apr
80/58
112/72
104/70
87/66
Totals
545/431
600/410
546/410
552/366

The new pendings this year are about 10% below the last couple of years, and the common explanation you see in the media points to the lack of inventory.

But we’re having about the same number of listings between La Jolla and Carlsbad, they are just high-enders – the median LP currently is $2,495,000.

(more…)

Annual Sales and Pricing

by | Feb 6, 2018 | Jim's Take on the Market, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings, Sales and Price Check | 2 comments

Let’s look closer at the individual neighborhoods, and compare annual sales and pricing between 2016 and 2017:

Town
Zip Code
2016 Sales
Avg $$/sf
Med SP
2017 Sales
Avg $$/sf
Med SP
Cardiff
92007
82
$711
$1,407,500
76
$711
$1,300,000
NW C-bad
92008
220
$465
$897,400
189
$429
$875,000
SE C-bad
92009
498
$343
$900,000
531
$363
$981,000
NE C-bad
92010
162
$343
$731,250
168
$367
$804,402
SW C-bad
92011
280
$393
$935,000
275
$413
$999,000
Crml Vly
92130
540
$409
$1,144,500
486
$441
$1,218,400
Del Mar
92014
162
$966
$1,787,500
163
$814
$1,800,000
Encinitas
92024
499
$530
$1,185,000
446
$568
$1,212,250
La Jolla
92037
354
$829
$1,918,250
328
$846
$2,172,500
RSF
67+91
251
$512
$2,272,500
284
$494
$2,240,000
Solana B
92075
86
$708
$1,310,000
98
$786
$1,500,000
NSDCC
All Above
3,103
$1,160,000
3,075
$1,225,000
SanMarcosSo.
92078
529
$291
$679,000
530
$316
$730,000
PB/MB
92109
226
$673
$1,082,500
225
$755
$1,195,000
West RB
92127
561
$343
$900,000
615
$366
$1,050,000
East RB
92128
533
$347
$660,000
513
$371
$725,000
RP
92129
450
$338
$720,000
374
$380
$759,500
Scripps R
92131
333
$340
$830,000
320
$367
$910,000

The velocity is slowing a bit from previous years. Of the 17 areas:

  1. Ten had fewer sales in 2017.
  2. Three had a lower cost-per-sf in 2017.
  3. Three had a lower median sales price in 2017.

Rancho Santa Fe had the cost-per-sf and median sales price dip slightly, but the annual sales were up 13%. NW Carlsbad had sales, cost-per-sf, and median SP all go down.

The current market conditions are very positive, especially on the lower-end of North San Diego County’s coastal region.

Of the houses listed under $1,500,000, there are 151 actives and 167 pendings, which is fantastic. The market of houses listed over $1,500,000 is more sluggish, with 493 actives and 102 pendings.

Get Good Help!

San Diego Pendings Count

by | Nov 30, 2017 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Buzz, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 1 comment

I’m not sure how the C.A.R prognosticators can look at these Y-o-Y numbers and still forecast higher sales for next year – unless they think the supply will inflate with thousands of desperate realtors having to sell their own homes?

LINK

The North County Coastal region (La Jolla to Carlsbad) is doing well, considering that December begins tomorrow – only a 17% drop since summer:

August 22nd: 373 pendings, 194 at 20+ days on market

November 30th: 309 pendings, 196 at 20+ days on market

There is no telling how many homes will come to market next year, or if there will be buyers willing to pay the usual Comps+5% pricing.

Get Good Help!

Data Declines

by | Nov 2, 2017 | Jim's Take on the Market, Market Conditions, North County Coastal, NSDCC Pendings | 5 comments

The data keeps pointing to a slowdown, and like a Yu Darvish hanging curveball, once it’s in flight, there’s not much you can do.  Few sellers need to sell bad enough that a substantial price reduction will be considered – and there isn’t enough competition to cause any fear.  For buyers who keep reading about the threat of rising rates, it can be very frustrating.

Here’s how the C.A.R. describes it:

• Pending home sales have declined on an annual basis for eight of the last nine months so far this year. After a solid run-up of closed sales in May, June, and August, continued housing inventory issues and affordability constraints may have pushed the market to a tipping point, suggesting the pace of growth will begin to slow in the fall.

• C.A.R.’s Market Velocity Index – home sales relative to the number of new listings coming on line each month to replenish that sold inventory, or market indicator of future price appreciation – suggests that there continues to be upward pressure on home prices through the fall. Home sales continue to outstrip new listings coming online to restock sold units.

• The Market Velocity Index dipped from 53 to 52, implying that there were 52 percent more homes sold than new listings, meaning the supply of homes available for sale continued to drop.

However, fewer homes are coming to market, in spite of record pricing:

NSDCC # of Houses Listed Between August 1 – September 30th:

2016: 848

2017: 738

Diff:  -13%

All SD County # of Houses Listed Between August 1 – September 30th:

2016: 6,006

2017: 5,346

Diff:  -11%

NSDCC # of Houses Listed In September Only:

2016: 413

2017: 337

Diff:  -18%

All SD County # of Houses Listed In September Only:

2016: 2,836

2017: 2,473

Diff:  -13%

With fewer homes to sell, the percentages of pending and closed sales have nowhere to go but down – and we’re doing fine, considering the inventory.  The declines in the pending and closed sales are in line with, or better than the decline in new listings.

Pendings

by | Aug 22, 2017 | Jim's Take on the Market, NSDCC Pendings, Rich Toscano | 1 comment

Rich has his latest report on the San Diego stats:

https://piggington.com/july_2017_housing_data_chartsngraphs

In his graph above, you can see that the county has been cooking this summer, with as many pendings as we’ve had in recent years!

In spite of higher pricing, we’ve also had fewer homes to consider.  Isn’t it mind-boggling that in a county of more than 3 million people, we’ve had less than 6,000 homes for sale all year?

We’ve been following the weekly new pendings between La Jolla and Carlsbad since 2013, but I haven’t monitored the NSDCC total pendings.  Any rise and fall in the total-pendings count would be a precursor to a change in sales count, which would give us a hint of a new trend.

The NSDCC pendings count has been in the 400s over the last few months, so as summer winds up, these numbers aren’t surprising:

NSDCC Total Pendings today: 373

NSDCC Pendings, 20+ Days: 194

The houses that are still pending after 20 days have probably released their contingencies, and are on their way to the finish line.  I will keep track of them from now on to see if the trend reveals anything new!

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