Historically, we have considered our market to be relatively ‘healthy’ when the actives-to-pendings ratio is around 2.0 – but that thought originated when prices were about half of what they are today!
But all in all, we’re in pretty good shape today.
The active inventory hasn’t exploded, and as long as the supply stays in check, the sellers aren’t going to panic. Do the buyers have the willingness and ability to wait it out, with no assurance it will ever get better? Or will the lack of solid evidence keep the ball rolling, albeit at a slower pace?
Here are the stats for the NSDCC detached-home market (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
| Reading Date | ||||
| Oct 28, 2015 | ||||
| Feb 1, 2016 | ||||
| Mar 23, 2016 | ||||
| June 21, 2016 | ||||
| Aug 17, 2016 | ||||
| Dec 4, 2016 | ||||
| Apr 21, 2017 | ||||
| July 16, 2018 |
NSDCC Actives Median Price = $2,288,045
NSDCC Pendings Median Price = $1,395,000
Only 10% of the actives are under $1,000,000, and 35% are over $3,000,000 (which are the same ratios as the last reading in April, 2017).
Here are the Actives/Pendings ratios for each area:
| Area | ||||||
| Cardiff | ||||||
| Carlsbad NW | ||||||
| Carlsbad SE | ||||||
| Carlsbad NE | ||||||
| Carlsbad SW | ||||||
| Del Mar | ||||||
| Encinitas | ||||||
| La Jolla | ||||||
| RSF | ||||||
| Solana Bch | ||||||
| Carmel Vly | ||||||
| All Above |
These stats are going to bounce around, so there isn’t anything here that gets me overly concerned.
Del Mar has always been a smaller, expensive subset (just eight pendings today), La Jolla is in line with their recent past, and RSF is as good as it’s been in years. Everything else is around the regular 2.0 ratio for a normal market.
