The data keeps pointing to a slowdown, and like a Yu Darvish hanging curveball, once it’s in flight, there’s not much you can do. Few sellers need to sell bad enough that a substantial price reduction will be considered – and there isn’t enough competition to cause any fear. For buyers who keep reading about the threat of rising rates, it can be very frustrating.
Here’s how the C.A.R. describes it:
• Pending home sales have declined on an annual basis for eight of the last nine months so far this year. After a solid run-up of closed sales in May, June, and August, continued housing inventory issues and affordability constraints may have pushed the market to a tipping point, suggesting the pace of growth will begin to slow in the fall.
• C.A.R.’s Market Velocity Index – home sales relative to the number of new listings coming on line each month to replenish that sold inventory, or market indicator of future price appreciation – suggests that there continues to be upward pressure on home prices through the fall. Home sales continue to outstrip new listings coming online to restock sold units.
• The Market Velocity Index dipped from 53 to 52, implying that there were 52 percent more homes sold than new listings, meaning the supply of homes available for sale continued to drop.
However, fewer homes are coming to market, in spite of record pricing:
NSDCC # of Houses Listed Between August 1 – September 30th:
All SD County # of Houses Listed Between August 1 – September 30th:
NSDCC # of Houses Listed In September Only:
All SD County # of Houses Listed In September Only:
With fewer homes to sell, the percentages of pending and closed sales have nowhere to go but down – and we’re doing fine, considering the inventory. The declines in the pending and closed sales are in line with, or better than the decline in new listings.