Rich’s Latest

Rich’s latest assortment of data and graphs are out:

https://www.piggington.com/december_2019_housing_data_highest_monthsinventory_2011_prices_d

Here’s one graph that demonstrates the timing of the selling season:

For sales to spike in March, it means buyers have been jumping to get into escrow right after the Super Bowl – and in some cases, prior to!

But also look at how sales drop off earlier in summer.

In 2018, sales from May to June were flat, when they usually rise.

Closed sales in July – which are a result of buyer decisions made in May and June – typically decline from June’s sales counts, but then last year they really fell apart for the rest of the year. And this graph is for the whole county, whose median sales price is less than half of what it is between La Jolla and Carlsbad.

If you are selling, do not think you’ll stand a better chance, later.

My guess for 2019?

February through April will be the season.

Months of Active Inventory

Rich’s latest report is out!

The worrisome spike last month did flatten out, but it does make you wonder if we should adjust our sights.

I agree with Rich that the months of active inventory will probably be rising from now on.  But if the coastal market had 3 or 4 months of active inventory, it wouldn’t be a bad thing.  Rancho Santa Fe is 7+ and doing fine.

Click here for the full report:

https://www.piggington.com/october_2018_housing_data

Rich’s SD Housing Graphs

Our friend Rich Toscano has his latest San Diego housing analysis here:

https://piggington.com/october_2017_housing_data

In spite of record prices, the inventory has been setting recent lows:

Yet, sales have been mostly better than every year since the Frenzy of 2013!

Fewer homes for sale but more sales?

Are sellers doing better to improve their homes before selling, or are buyers so desperate that they are buying crap they wouldn’t have bought during the last couple of years just purely because of the scarcity?

Full report here:

https://piggington.com/october_2017_housing_data

Frenzy of 2017

Let’s examine Rich’s other charts to see how divergent our San Diego market has been lately, comparing to the last three years.  In spite of much-higher pricing, the raw number of homes for sale has crossed under the paltry few we had during the Frenzy of 2013, and into uncharted territory:

Yet, the volume of sales has been strong – and see June :

The rest of the year looks OK too, though this is for the whole county:

There will be sellers – especially on the higher-end – who didn’t know how motivated they were until now.  Will they lower their price, or wait and take their chances next year? The market couldn’t be much better than now!

https://piggington.com/

Inventory Watch

The new pendings had a nice bounce back this week, but just making up some ground lost over the last couple of weeks. Last September, we averaged 90 new listings, and 66 new pendings per week:

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Aug 7
99
71
Aug 14
76
65
Aug 21
83
62
Aug 28
96
60
Sept 4
74
71
Sept 11
81
42
Sept 18
77
47
Sept 25
67
59

We don’t mind if the new listings drop off – all we want are motivated sellers, because it is so unlikely that buyers will wildly overpay now.  With all the outside distractions, it will be a little too easy for casual sellers to wait until next year.

It looks like potential sellers are already thinking about next year:

(H/T Rich)

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