He mentioned the slightly-negative turn in pricing last month, but I like these two graphs above. The pricing trend is going to bounce around – as long as we have sales counts close to previous years, we’ll be fine.
Here’s one graph that demonstrates the timing of the selling season:
For sales to spike in March, it means buyers have been jumping to get into escrow right after the Super Bowl – and in some cases, prior to!
But also look at how sales drop off earlier in summer.
In 2018, sales from May to June were flat, when they usually rise.
Closed sales in July – which are a result of buyer decisions made in May and June – typically decline from June’s sales counts, but then last year they really fell apart for the rest of the year. And this graph is for the whole county, whose median sales price is less than half of what it is between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
If you are selling, do not think you’ll stand a better chance, later.
The worrisome spike last month did flatten out, but it does make you wonder if we should adjust our sights.
I agree with Rich that the months of active inventory will probably be rising from now on. But if the coastal market had 3 or 4 months of active inventory, it wouldn’t be a bad thing. Rancho Santa Fe is 7+ and doing fine.
Rich’s latest data is out, and the graph above shows the aggregate pricing for San Diego has increased over 100% since 2009 – click below for the rest of his analysis on inventory, sales, and pendings:
In spite of record prices, the inventory has been setting recent lows:
Yet, sales have been mostly better than every year since the Frenzy of 2013!
Fewer homes for sale but more sales?
Are sellers doing better to improve their homes before selling, or are buyers so desperate that they are buying crap they wouldn’t have bought during the last couple of years just purely because of the scarcity?
Let’s examine Rich’s other charts to see how divergent our San Diego market has been lately, comparing to the last three years. In spite of much-higher pricing, the raw number of homes for sale has crossed under the paltry few we had during the Frenzy of 2013, and into uncharted territory:
Yet, the volume of sales has been strong – and see June :
The rest of the year looks OK too, though this is for the whole county:
There will be sellers – especially on the higher-end – who didn’t know how motivated they were until now. Will they lower their price, or wait and take their chances next year? The market couldn’t be much better than now!
The new pendings had a nice bounce back this week, but just making up some ground lost over the last couple of weeks. Last September, we averaged 90 new listings, and 66 new pendings per week:
We don’t mind if the new listings drop off – all we want are motivated sellers, because it is so unlikely that buyers will wildly overpay now. With all the outside distractions, it will be a little too easy for casual sellers to wait until next year.
It looks like potential sellers are already thinking about next year:
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