Even though we are racing towards mortgage rates in the 5s (should be there by summer), there won't be much adjustment by sellers because they aren't going to give it away! “We learned house prices are... ‘downside sticky’ which means sellers would rather withdraw...
Market Conditions
War and The Frenzy
Will the Ukraine war have an impact the real estate frenzy? It's likely to have the same effect as rising mortgage rates - it will make buyers want to hurry up and buy something so they can hunker down. But the less-motivated buyers have to be getting to the point...
Deceleration?
We know that media types are looking to sell newspapers, and if it bleeds, it leads. The article in the UT this morning about the San Diego Case-Shiller Index starts with this: San Diego continued to slide down in rankings of the nation’s hottest real estate markets...
CalExodus
In San Diego County, the excessive frenzy conditions have been driven by newcomers who don't have a house here yet, and who figure that they just have to pay what it takes to get one. It is those buyers that out-bid the locals. As those numbers dwindle, the frenzy...
The Frenzy and Rising Rates
A reader on Twitter wondered how rising rates will affect the 2022 frenzy. Here's what is expected today: Under Chair Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve is poised this week to execute a sharp turn toward tighter interest-rate policies with inflation accelerating and...
‘Lower Appreciation Not Yet Reflected in Gains’
More ivory-tower musings here, and it's hard to believe that they could be so blind. How can analysts read these statistics and decide that the frenzy will come to a complete halt, which is what a 2.5% YoY gain will feel like if it were to happen? Because of a break...
Does Tilt Matter?
During the inspection of the fixer in Olde Carlsbad, it was determined that further investigation was warranted due to the slope in the floor. A geologic engineer came out with his fancy altimeter and found that there was a 5-inch difference between the foundation...
Inventory Watch
There have been more new pendings than new listings for four weeks in a row. This week's 54 new pendings is the highest weekly amount since the end of August! There are more pendings than actives today (232 vs. 229) and it's the week of Thanksgiving! At this time last...
Ivy Again
There have been several sound bites lately about the prognosticator who called the last bubble - and at first glance, the headlines want you to think that she is calling the top again. But she's not - all she said was that housing production is going full steam - an...
C.A.R. Forecast 2022
The association is predicting that home sales in California will drop next year, but has a typical guess for the statewide median sales price - expecting a 5.2% rise in 2022: 2022 Their predictions for this year were terrible - they thought pricing would go nearly...