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Was There Some Panic in 4Q?

We’re going to start a contest for Padres tickets in the new year, so let’s get a read on how things wrapped up in 2018.

We know that NSDCC sales were down 10%, and the median SP was up 8%.  Sales of detached homes in San Diego County were down 11%, and the median sales price was up 7%.

If sellers were feeling a sense of panic about the market – and prices – we would be seeing more new listings hit the market.

Have there been more listings than usual lately?

NSDCC Listings, 4th Quarter

Year
4th Qtr Listings
Median List Price
Dec. Listings
Median List Price
2013
727
$1,199,000
164
$1,090,000
2014
761
$1,199,000
150
$1,185,000
2015
866
$1,348,500
200
$1,137,450
2016
836
$1,377,500
201
$1,375,000
2017
753
$1,549,900
153
$1,495,000
2018
842
$1,536,900
154
$1,524,000

The other comparisons we’ve done have shown that the 2018 stats have mostly been similar to previous years. But once we have the complete total for new listings, it looks like the 4Q18 number is likely to be at, or above, all of the recent years.  It’s already 12% above last year, and the MLP is actually lower.

There were fewer December listings, but that means the October/November count was higher than ever.  With soggy conditions in place already, did potential sellers this month decide to wait for a 2019 launch?

Will we see a surge of new listings in early 2019?

Failed Auction?

The no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway today was postponed until April 25th.

Why would you postpone for 5 days?

There has to be buyers. This company has been very successful in selling seven and $8-figure homes throughout the world, and they have grown exponentially. The auction process is a big hit, and it is the best solution for selling homes.

George guessed that it could be a failed auction before I saw it get postponed on the website.  He’s looking very astute now….or is George an insider? 😆

Save

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Live Auction April 20th

The auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway is Thursday!

You can watch the auction live at 4:00pm Pacific Time on the Concierge Auctions mobile app, where you can also find their rules list.  They will add a 10% buyer’s premium to the winning bid to determine the final sales price.  If you didn’t know that and want to change your bid, feel free!

Kemp has $12,000,000 invested.  The person with the closest guess will receive four tickets to a Padres game!  Here are the guesses:

$4,200,000 – Rob

$4,735,000 – BAM

$5,325,000 – Amy

$5,700,000 – elbarcosr

$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie

$6,200,000 – Nick LB

$6,250,000 – Tom

$6,500,000 – LT

$6,519,000 – Matt V.

$6,900,000 – Daniel

$7,050,000 – Susie

$7,126.000 – Ed

$7,350,000 – Mark H.

$7,423,200 – Goughy

$7,875,000 – Kerry

$7,900,000 – kman

$8,000,000 – Name

$8,800,000 – Mike M.

$8,888,888.88 – JakeL

$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad

$9,210,000 – CJ

$9,400,000 – Derek

$9,500,000 – Joe k

$9,600,000 – Mike Call

$9,750,000 – bode

$9,800,000 – Jenny

$10,000,200 – Janet

$10,527,000 – Eddie89

There is still time – leave your guess in the comment section below.

Here are more details on the house:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2017/03/27/contest-4-padres-tickets/

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Padres’ Tickets Contest

We’re looking forward to the no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house on April 20th, and have four tickets to a Padres game for the person whose guess comes closest to the actual sales price (which will include the auction premium).

Kemp has $12,000,000 invested.  Here are the guesses so far!

$4,200,000 – Rob

$5,700,000 – elbarcosr

$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie

$6,500,000 – LT

$6,519,000 – Matt V.

$6,900,000 – Daniel

$7,050,000 – Susie

$7,126.000 – Ed

$7,350,000 – Mark H.

$7,875,000 – Kerry

$7,900,000 – kman

$8,000,000 – Name

$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad

$9,210,000 – CJ

$9,400,000 – Derek

$9,500,000 – Joe k

$9,600,000 – Mike Call

$9,750,000 – bode

$10,527,000 – Eddie89

There is still time to get your guess in!

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2017/03/27/contest-4-padres-tickets/

Contest for 4 Padres Tickets

Let’s have a contest for Padres tickets!

Guess the sales price of Matt Kemp’s house being auctioned April 20th with no reserve!  He paid $9,075,000 in 2013, and it has been listed for $11,500,000.

The person with the closest guess will receive 4 tickets to a Padres game!

From the latimes.com:

“[The auction] is going to be a better route for bringing legitimate interest to the property,” said Nartey, the director of sports entertainment division at Compass. “It’s an opportunity for someone to get an asset for less than its actually worth.”

The “asset” in question includes a 15,884-square-foot main house, a tennis court and an infinity-edge swimming pool on about 4 acres of grounds. A separate pool/guest house holds a gym and a roman spa.

Features of the home, which Kemp has spent about $3 million to update, include custom travertine floors, a cigar lounge with a humidor and a 1,200-bottle wine cellar with a tasting room. A custom home theater is outfitted with tiered seating and a snack bar.

Here is the Zillow listing:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/14105-Biscayne-Pl-Poway-CA-92064/38433937_zpid/

Here it is on the auction website:

https://www.conciergeauctions.com/auctions/14105-biscayne-place-poway-ca

Leave your guess in the comments section!

The Trophy at The Heritage | Concierge Auctions

New Zillow Ad

The ads by realtor.com have been singular in focus – bashing Zillow for not having all the listings.

In the meantime, Z is running away with the emotional content:

REO-Auction Contest Results

My high school baseball coach used to say,

“I don’t believe anything I hear, and only half of what I see!”

In our latest contest, readers submitted their guess at the highest bid + 5% buyer’s premium for this property in SE Carlsbad:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/06/03/carlsbad-reo-contest-2/

lamaca4

The auction included an outrageous set of conditions, which many thought would drive down the price to compensate.  They included:

  1. The 5% buyer’s premium tacked onto the highest bid.
  2. No showings.
  3. Tenant-occupied, and buyer was responsible for evicting.
  4. Cash only.
  5. No buyer’s agent commission paid.
  6. Not in the MLS.
  7. 5% deposit required upon winning.
  8. Reserve price.

They conducted the auction online, which gave participants the convenience of bidding from their couch at home. It should have allowed bidders the chance to double-check the comps as the auction wore on – because every time a new bid was made, they extended the ending by 1-2 minutes.

Those checking the comps would have seen that in the heat of the frenzy last year, three of this identical model sold for $638,000, $653,000 and $679,000.  Then in October this sale with nice view closed for $705,500, which was the highest price since May, 2007:

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-130050274-2704_La_Duela_Ln_Carlsbad_CA_92009

The bank foreclosed in 2011, and nobody wanted it then for $459,088.  The opening bid this week was $325,000, and once the auction started the initial bid increment was $25,000.

Most of our readers guessed it would sell in the $400,000s, which would be an adequate buffer to evict and remodel.

Look what happened today:

lamaca42

AND IT DIDN’T HIT THE RESERVE PRICE!!!!!!

Somebody was willing to pay almost $200,000 more than the bank didn’t get in 2011, and that wasn’t enough to reach the reserve price?  Hopefully the bank will come to their senses and reconsider before that bidder changes their mind.  Counting the 5% buyer’s premium, the highest bid was $678,038!

Our closest and winning guess was $568,050, and submitted by blucore – congratulations!

Carlsbad REO Contest

Usually WaMu would have a REO agent do the normal routine – vacate, paint, and then list the home on the open market for just under retail.

The bank has already foreclosed – but instead selling of the old-fashioned way, they chose to make it an auction.com exclusive listing.

The house is tenant-occupied and can’t be shown, the buyer is responsible for evicting the tenant, plus the buyer has to pay a 5% premium but there’s no buyer-broker commission is offered (it’s not on the MLS) – and oh, by the way, you have to pay cash:

lamaca4

lamaca5

The opening bid is 42% of the previous value, which looks attractive:

lamaca3

P.S. This was foreclosed in 2011 – the trustee sale’s price that nobody wanted to pay then was $459,088.

What will the sales price be? (assuming the reserve price is reached)

The closest guesser will get 4 tickets to Padres vs Rockies on August 13th!

Encinitas Contest Winners

1620-splitrail-drive-015_mls

The contest for Padres tickets is complete – and it’s a tie!

We closed escrow yesterday at $710,000 cash. (list price was $699,000)

Raymond Byrnes guessed $709,500 and michael call guessed $710,500 – so you both win a set of four Padres tickets!

I think the reasons it didn’t go higher were that we were already listed at the very top of the range, and the house was too small for most people.  The third bedroom had a pair of doors on one side, and a single door or another – so the house was really a 2-bedroom plus den, and 1,424sf.  A single person bought it and paid cash.

See all the guesses in the comment section – thanks for playing!

Padres Contest

The Contest for 4 Padres tickets!

The closest guesser to the sales price of my new listing at 1620 Splitrail, Encinitas, will receive four field-level tickets to a Padres game.

splitrail map

Here is the Zillow listing – Zestimate is $701,924, and we’re listed for $699,000:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1620-Splitrail-Dr-Encinitas-CA-92024/52509718_zpid/

Here is the video tour:

A few photos:

1620-splitrail-drive-006_mls

1620-splitrail-drive-014_mls

1620-splitrail-drive-039_mls

1620-splitrail-drive-028_mls

We’ve seen some comps recently which may give some guidance, but all are a fair distance away.

1. This is still showing as an active listing on the MLS:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/03/31/pre-contest/

2. The $815,000 fixer that received two offers and went pending within 3 days:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2014/03/24/dear-frustrated-buyer/

3. The Elmview listing that didn’t make it onto the blog yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKaq6ms_I6Q

We’ll be having open house this weekend, 12-3 pm, so come by for a look!

Leave your guess of the eventual sales price in the comment section, and the closest will four tickets near the visitors dugout.

I don’t have season tickets, but a great friend helped me out.  The contest winner will be able to choose one game with either the Marlins, Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, Rockies, or Giants.  If one of those is your favorite team, you’d enjoy these seats overlooking the visitor’s dugout, plus the visiting-team’s owner seats are right in front of you.

This is from Opening Night, taken from the seats – Stan Kastens, president of the Dodgers, is the bald guy at the bottom-right with the rest of Dodger ownership:

dodgers vs padres

Submit your guess of the sales price in the comment section to win!!

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