We’ve had a mini-surge in listings over the last few days! There will be a few more added to the MLS this week, but it looks like the total for the first two months of the year will wind up in the 760-785 range.
NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 28 (as of March 4th):
2018: 783
2019: 760
Padres’ Tickets Contest – Guesses Under 800:
740 – Doughboy
755 – Neil
777 – Bb
785 – Recordsclerk
799 – TominLaCosta
We wanted to gauge whether there was any panic setting in among sellers, judged by how many more were rushing their home onto the market early in the selling season. If there would have been a surge of 5% to 10% more listings during the first two months of this year, it could have been a tipping point.
But as it turns out, we’ll be lucky to match last year’s total.
The 2019 median list price and sales price were the same $1.275M!
But the NSDCC Pendings are stalling, and now 19% under last year’s total at this time, so I’ll stick with my -20% guess on sales. We got off to a hot start this year, but the enthusiasm is slowing – based on this:
Weekly Total Pendings
Week
2018
2019
% diff
Jan
244
217
-11%
Feb
262
233
-11%
Feb
280
255
-9%
Feb
295
263
-11%
Feb
318
261
-18%
Mar
328
267
-19%
The average list-price-per-square-foot of listings priced under $1,500,000 has been flat lately, and about the same as last year. But listings priced between $1,500,000 and $2,000,000 are averaging about 10% higher LP/$ than last year.
A sluggish selling season would probably end earlier than usual, but give us at least a couple of more months, please!
Our contest for Padres tickets got more exciting this week due to Manny Mania!
NSDCC New Listings Jan 1 to Feb 20:
2018: 681
2019: 644 (-5%)
The two-month total last year was 783, so we’re on a pace to hit 741. Doughboy guessed 740, but it came in after the guessing period ended. If he wins, I’ll give tickets to him and the next closest guesser.
Others who guessed under 800:
755 – Neil
777 – Bb
785 – Recordsclerk
799 – TominLaCosta
We finally hit a statistical oddity that we’ve been flirting with for months. The average list-price-per-sf of the Under-$1,000,000 category caught up with the next category, $1.0M to $1.5M.
Both are at $494/sf today!
There was another quirk also. The new listings AND the new pendings both dropped off over the past week, which is unusual for this time of year. It must have been due to the rain?
The total number of pendings today is 18% behind last year.
Looking ahead to next month? It starts Friday! We had 446 new listings in March of last year, which was 25% more than in February, 2018.
It was suggested that we change the price categories again, and the start of the new year would be a good time to do it.
But I’m going to leave them be, for two reasons: A) Pricing, and the market in general, has stalled – literally we have twice as many NSDCC active listings priced under $1M today as we did a year ago (72 vs. 36), and B) I want to compare apples and apples to 2018 throughout the year.
If you took an extended vacation and are just getting back in the swing, scroll back a few posts (or click here) to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!
Would you like some guidance on what to expect in the Spring Selling Season?
Let’s monitor how many new NSDCC listings are hitting the market!
If the negative media hype is starting to worry sellers, they will hurry up and list their home early. If we see a surge of new listings in the first two months of the year, it means a buyers’ market is forming.
If we have about the same or fewer listings in early 2019, then sellers will just shrug off any concerns and wait their turn.
Here are the counts of listings inputted onto the MLS in January and February from the last few years:
NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb
Year
Jan+Feb Listings
Median List Price
Median DOM
2012
794
$954,500
88
2013
785
$1,130,000
37
2014
802
$1,295,000
42
2015
821
$1,345,000
37
2016
917
$1,489,900
46
2017
787
$1,499,876
38
2018
782
$1,599,000
35
The average is 813 listings, and with the last two years both being lower, it would take a significant YoY increase to worry most participants. But at least we’ll know first!
Put your guess in the comment section of how many new listings we’ll have in January and February, and on March 15th we’ll see who is closest.
The winner will get four tickets to a Padres game! The photos here were taken from the seats, and I’ll have about ten dates available.
We’re going to start a contest for Padres tickets in the new year, so let’s get a read on how things wrapped up in 2018.
We know that NSDCC sales were down 10%, and the median SP was up 8%. Sales of detached homes in San Diego County were down 11%, and the median sales price was up 7%.
If sellers were feeling a sense of panic about the market – and prices – we would be seeing more new listings hit the market.
Have there been more listings than usual lately?
NSDCC Listings, 4th Quarter
Year
4th Qtr Listings
Median List Price
Dec. Listings
Median List Price
2013
727
$1,199,000
164
$1,090,000
2014
761
$1,199,000
150
$1,185,000
2015
866
$1,348,500
200
$1,137,450
2016
836
$1,377,500
201
$1,375,000
2017
753
$1,549,900
153
$1,495,000
2018
842
$1,536,900
154
$1,524,000
The other comparisons we’ve done have shown that the 2018 stats have mostly been similar to previous years. But once we have the complete total for new listings, it looks like the 4Q18 number is likely to be at, or above, all of the recent years. It’s already 12% above last year, and the MLP is actually lower.
There were fewer December listings, but that means the October/November count was higher than ever. With soggy conditions in place already, did potential sellers this month decide to wait for a 2019 launch?
Will we see a surge of new listings in early 2019?
The no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway today was postponed until April 25th.
Why would you postpone for 5 days?
There has to be buyers. This company has been very successful in selling seven and $8-figure homes throughout the world, and they have grown exponentially. The auction process is a big hit, and it is the best solution for selling homes.
George guessed that it could be a failed auction before I saw it get postponed on the website. He’s looking very astute now….or is George an insider? 😆
The auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway is Thursday!
You can watch the auction live at 4:00pm Pacific Time on the Concierge Auctions mobile app, where you can also find their rules list. They will add a 10% buyer’s premium to the winning bid to determine the final sales price. If you didn’t know that and want to change your bid, feel free!
Kemp has $12,000,000 invested. The person with the closest guess will receive four tickets to a Padres game! Here are the guesses:
$4,200,000 – Rob
$4,735,000 – BAM
$5,325,000 – Amy
$5,700,000 – elbarcosr
$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie
$6,200,000 – Nick LB
$6,250,000 – Tom
$6,500,000 – LT
$6,519,000 – Matt V.
$6,900,000 – Daniel
$7,050,000 – Susie
$7,126.000 – Ed
$7,350,000 – Mark H.
$7,423,200 – Goughy
$7,875,000 – Kerry
$7,900,000 – kman
$8,000,000 – Name
$8,800,000 – Mike M.
$8,888,888.88 – JakeL
$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad
$9,210,000 – CJ
$9,400,000 – Derek
$9,500,000 – Joe k
$9,600,000 – Mike Call
$9,750,000 – bode
$9,800,000 – Jenny
$10,000,200 – Janet
$10,527,000 – Eddie89
There is still time – leave your guess in the comment section below.
We’re looking forward to the no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house on April 20th, and have four tickets to a Padres game for the person whose guess comes closest to the actual sales price (which will include the auction premium).
Kemp has $12,000,000 invested. Here are the guesses so far!
Guess the sales price of Matt Kemp’s house being auctioned April 20th with no reserve! He paid $9,075,000 in 2013, and it has been listed for $11,500,000.
The person with the closest guess will receive 4 tickets to a Padres game!
“[The auction] is going to be a better route for bringing legitimate interest to the property,” said Nartey, the director of sports entertainment division at Compass. “It’s an opportunity for someone to get an asset for less than its actually worth.”
The “asset” in question includes a 15,884-square-foot main house, a tennis court and an infinity-edge swimming pool on about 4 acres of grounds. A separate pool/guest house holds a gym and a roman spa.
Features of the home, which Kemp has spent about $3 million to update, include custom travertine floors, a cigar lounge with a humidor and a 1,200-bottle wine cellar with a tasting room. A custom home theater is outfitted with tiered seating and a snack bar.
I cold called a storage facility in OK - older lady had 3 properties, full occupancy, and a great business.
She said "son I sold it all to some city slicker who paid me far more than its worth. I bought a condo in Santa Barbara and Im spending the rest of my days watching the… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1637846196621553664
