It was suggested that we change the price categories again, and the start of the new year would be a good time to do it.
But I’m going to leave them be, for two reasons: A) Pricing, and the market in general, has stalled – literally we have twice as many NSDCC active listings priced under $1M today as we did a year ago (72 vs. 36), and B) I want to compare apples and apples to 2018 throughout the year.
If you took an extended vacation and are just getting back in the swing, scroll back a few posts (or click here) to register your guess of how many total listings we will have between Jan 1 and Feb 28 – the closest will receive four tickets to a Padres game!
Would you like some guidance on what to expect in the Spring Selling Season?
Let’s monitor how many new NSDCC listings are hitting the market!
If the negative media hype is starting to worry sellers, they will hurry up and list their home early. If we see a surge of new listings in the first two months of the year, it means a buyers’ market is forming.
If we have about the same or fewer listings in early 2019, then sellers will just shrug off any concerns and wait their turn.
Here are the counts of listings inputted onto the MLS in January and February from the last few years:
NSDCC New Listings, Jan & Feb
Median List Price
The average is 813 listings, and with the last two years both being lower, it would take a significant YoY increase to worry most participants. But at least we’ll know first!
Put your guess in the comment section of how many new listings we’ll have in January and February, and on March 15th we’ll see who is closest.
The winner will get four tickets to a Padres game! The photos here were taken from the seats, and I’ll have about ten dates available.
We’re going to start a contest for Padres tickets in the new year, so let’s get a read on how things wrapped up in 2018.
We know that NSDCC sales were down 10%, and the median SP was up 8%. Sales of detached homes in San Diego County were down 11%, and the median sales price was up 7%.
If sellers were feeling a sense of panic about the market – and prices – we would be seeing more new listings hit the market.
Have there been more listings than usual lately?
NSDCC Listings, 4th Quarter
4th Qtr Listings
Median List Price
Median List Price
The other comparisons we’ve done have shown that the 2018 stats have mostly been similar to previous years. But once we have the complete total for new listings, it looks like the 4Q18 number is likely to be at, or above, all of the recent years. It’s already 12% above last year, and the MLP is actually lower.
There were fewer December listings, but that means the October/November count was higher than ever. With soggy conditions in place already, did potential sellers this month decide to wait for a 2019 launch?
Will we see a surge of new listings in early 2019?
The no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway today was postponed until April 25th.
Why would you postpone for 5 days?
There has to be buyers. This company has been very successful in selling seven and $8-figure homes throughout the world, and they have grown exponentially. The auction process is a big hit, and it is the best solution for selling homes.
George guessed that it could be a failed auction before I saw it get postponed on the website. He’s looking very astute now….or is George an insider? 😆
The auction of Matt Kemp’s house in Poway is Thursday!
You can watch the auction live at 4:00pm Pacific Time on the Concierge Auctions mobile app, where you can also find their rules list. They will add a 10% buyer’s premium to the winning bid to determine the final sales price. If you didn’t know that and want to change your bid, feel free!
Kemp has $12,000,000 invested. The person with the closest guess will receive four tickets to a Padres game! Here are the guesses:
$4,200,000 – Rob
$4,735,000 – BAM
$5,325,000 – Amy
$5,700,000 – elbarcosr
$5,900,000 – Real Estate Rookie
$6,200,000 – Nick LB
$6,250,000 – Tom
$6,500,000 – LT
$6,519,000 – Matt V.
$6,900,000 – Daniel
$7,050,000 – Susie
$7,126.000 – Ed
$7,350,000 – Mark H.
$7,423,200 – Goughy
$7,875,000 – Kerry
$7,900,000 – kman
$8,000,000 – Name
$8,800,000 – Mike M.
$8,888,888.88 – JakeL
$9,100,000 – Lifeisradincarlsbad
$9,210,000 – CJ
$9,400,000 – Derek
$9,500,000 – Joe k
$9,600,000 – Mike Call
$9,750,000 – bode
$9,800,000 – Jenny
$10,000,200 – Janet
$10,527,000 – Eddie89
There is still time – leave your guess in the comment section below.
We’re looking forward to the no-reserve auction of Matt Kemp’s house on April 20th, and have four tickets to a Padres game for the person whose guess comes closest to the actual sales price (which will include the auction premium).
Kemp has $12,000,000 invested. Here are the guesses so far!
“[The auction] is going to be a better route for bringing legitimate interest to the property,” said Nartey, the director of sports entertainment division at Compass. “It’s an opportunity for someone to get an asset for less than its actually worth.”
The “asset” in question includes a 15,884-square-foot main house, a tennis court and an infinity-edge swimming pool on about 4 acres of grounds. A separate pool/guest house holds a gym and a roman spa.
Features of the home, which Kemp has spent about $3 million to update, include custom travertine floors, a cigar lounge with a humidor and a 1,200-bottle wine cellar with a tasting room. A custom home theater is outfitted with tiered seating and a snack bar.
The auction included an outrageous set of conditions, which many thought would drive down the price to compensate. They included:
The 5% buyer’s premium tacked onto the highest bid.
Tenant-occupied, and buyer was responsible for evicting.
No buyer’s agent commission paid.
Not in the MLS.
5% deposit required upon winning.
They conducted the auction online, which gave participants the convenience of bidding from their couch at home. It should have allowed bidders the chance to double-check the comps as the auction wore on – because every time a new bid was made, they extended the ending by 1-2 minutes.
Those checking the comps would have seen that in the heat of the frenzy last year, three of this identical model sold for $638,000, $653,000 and $679,000. Then in October this sale with nice view closed for $705,500, which was the highest price since May, 2007:
The bank foreclosed in 2011, and nobody wanted it then for $459,088. The opening bid this week was $325,000, and once the auction started the initial bid increment was $25,000.
Most of our readers guessed it would sell in the $400,000s, which would be an adequate buffer to evict and remodel.
Look what happened today:
AND IT DIDN’T HIT THE RESERVE PRICE!!!!!!
Somebody was willing to pay almost $200,000 more than the bank didn’t get in 2011, and that wasn’t enough to reach the reserve price? Hopefully the bank will come to their senses and reconsider before that bidder changes their mind. Counting the 5% buyer’s premium, the highest bid was $678,038!
Our closest and winning guess was $568,050, and submitted by blucore – congratulations!
Usually WaMu would have a REO agent do the normal routine – vacate, paint, and then list the home on the open market for just under retail.
The bank has already foreclosed – but instead selling of the old-fashioned way, they chose to make it an auction.com exclusive listing.
The house is tenant-occupied and can’t be shown, the buyer is responsible for evicting the tenant, plus the buyer has to pay a 5% premium but there’s no buyer-broker commission is offered (it’s not on the MLS) – and oh, by the way, you have to pay cash:
The opening bid is 42% of the previous value, which looks attractive:
P.S. This was foreclosed in 2011 – the trustee sale’s price that nobody wanted to pay then was $459,088.
What will the sales price be? (assuming the reserve price is reached)
The closest guesser will get 4 tickets to Padres vs Rockies on August 13th!
@mikesimonsen @Milehighmilede1 Probably worth noting that according to our latest report at @Attomdata, 90% of borrowers in foreclosure have positive equity - many have more than 25% equity. During the last cycle most borrowers in foreclosure were underwater on their mortgages. Big difference.