Today’s hopeful home sellers aren’t going to take much more of this.
If they don’t find a buyer in the next couple of weeks, they will assume that the market conditions aren’t conducive to selling…..at least not for their price. They will pack it up and try again some other day, rather than lower their price.
I’m guessing that we will have less than 400 active NSDCC listings by September 1st (today’s count is 459).
The same with pricing – this is about all we’re going to see this summer:
It seems like there are open-house signs on every corner now.
Some may think that it’s a sign of trouble, but recognize that it’s realtor training in progress.
The industry is dominated by realtor teams now. Their leaders send out the trainees to do open house every Saturday and Sunday, even though the chance of selling the open house that day is close to zero.
They do it to pick up new buyer prospects.
Attendees are told that the seller insists that everyone registers their contact information, and they are rather insistent about it. The information is then used by the trainees who call you until you buy or die.
They will also be practicing their closing line, “Do you have any questions?”
If you want to see how they are doing with their training, respond with, “Can I buy this for 10% off?”
This exceptional Scripps Ranch view home is located in the highly sought-after Traviata neighborhood. Boasting absolutely gorgeous panoramic coastal views and evening lights, the home is designed to integrate indoor and outdoor spaces and leaves no detail undone. With a functional floor plan featuring 5 bedrooms, 3 full baths and one-half bath plus an office, this is truly an executive home with upgrades including a beautifully remodeled kitchen with slab counters, stainless appliances, custom lighting, stylish plank flooring, designer paint, custom moldings, expanded loft area, a huge trellised upper deck and a large California-style game room that is perfect for entertaining.
SP = $841,000 – Sold! We represented the sellers who had shopped agents, and had one tell them that he would list for $675,000. We knew the potential and suggested a $15,000 tune-up to reach the retail buyers….which we did!
You can still buy a Village Park home in the $800,000s! This one feels like a detached-home too, and is surrounded by greenbelts. One-story, new flooring and paint, private backyard, 2-car garage, air-conditioning, laundry room, plus the primary bedroom suite has a fantastic travertine shower and huge walk-in closet! A house across the street is listed for $1,900,000 – this is the right neighborhood! Walk to the Park Dale Lane Elementary School and the Village Park Recreation Club too – enjoy all the benefits of the Village Park clubhouse, pool/spa, & tennis courts in this dog-walker’s paradise with flowing green belts throughout the area. Wow!
Our buyer snagged this hot buy west of the freeway and walking distance to all the village of Carlsbad has to offer! High ceilings, skylights, updated kitchen, and 2 parking spaces in garage.
The latest Zillow 1-Year Forecasted Values are still expecting a fairly strong appreciation rate over the next year. In May, they were guessing +19% or more in all areas, so this looks like a soft landing:
NW Carlsbad, 92008:
SE Carlsbad, 92009:
NE Carlsbad, 92010:
SW Carlsbad, 92011:
Carmel Valley, 92130:
Del Mar, 92014:
Encinitas, 92024:
La Jolla:
Rancho Santa Fe, 92067:
They do have website-viewer data that nobody else has, and hopefully they are using it to track the activity and make predictions.
We try to talk to potential sellers every day, and their response is universal.
When they find out that they will have to pay capital-gains tax when selling – and for most local homeowners it means paying six-figures in taxes – their desire to move cools off quickly. They were already somewhat reluctant to move, because if they had a strong desire, then they would have moved already.
Now add in the heightened difficulty of buying the next home. Most sellers would like to stay local, but it’s nearly impossible to make sense of moving up or down and stay in the same neighborhood. If you move up, you need to spend a boatload of extra money, and if you move down you have to sacrifice/compromise in ways that make homeowners want to just stay put.
Move out of state?
It was a great idea when you could buy a decent home in Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, etc. for less than $500,000. But the California exodus has been underway for years now, and has gobbled up enough homes that prices there have exploded, and drained the inventory too – just like here.
The sales and pricing in the post-frenzy environment will be determined by inventory. We’ve had the fewest homes for sale ever around here, and I think it’s going to get worse. If the only way to make sense of moving is to 1) pay six-figures in taxes, 2) leave the state, AND 3) spend $800,000 to $1,000,000 there to get a decent house, it will talk even more local homeowners into staying put.
About the only relief I can imagine is that enough kids have to leave town and start over, and then the grandparents follow later once there are grandkids to fuss over.
Here’s the free article on the shortages of housing:
Here is a long research paper that suggests we’ll be having a boomer liquidation event by the end of the 2030s. It doesn’t mention any effect from kids will be inheriting their parents’ and grandparents’ homes and live in them forever too:
The listing agent Seth gave me permission to run these clips as long as I find the buyer! So if you watch this film and want to buy it, then you gotta call me!
