New documentary, ‘Some Kind of Heaven’ explores the dark underside of America’s largest retirement community known as ‘The Villages’ in central Florida with a notorious swingers scene. The community was designed to be a manicured fantasy land for seniors aged 55+ ; grandchildren and visitors under the age minimum are strictly prohibited to visit for more than 30 calendar days.
It’s dubbed ‘the Disneyland for retirees’ because the neighborhoods are designed like a theme park to imitate old town squares, complete with make-believe histories; residents say its like living in a ‘bubble’
The developers own a TV channel, multiple radio stations and newspaper that only prints positive news
Critics say The Villages are like a creepy Stepford cult for Baby Boomers with Orwellian-like rules that are dictated by an elusive family worth billions of dollars
According to the US Census, The Villages is the fastest growing metro in the United States where the population rose by 37.8% between 2010-2019; homes cost between $100K to $1million
The Villages is larger than the size of Manhattan and covers 32 square miles of property with 130,000 residents, five zip codes, 50 golf courses, 100 rec centers, 11 dog parks, 14 supermarkets
There are 2,700 social and recreational clubs for residents that include one for: singles, Beatlemaniacs, synchronized swimming, softball, cheerleading and retired CIA members
The Villages were ‘designed to hide all of the problems of everyday life’ says first time documentarian, Lance Oppenheim – his film follows the lives of four seniors that live on the fringe of the fantasy
The intensity of the CV frenzy is hard to determine because it’s sold out. Lines are forming but who knows how long?
Because the builder has so few left, you know they would wait it out if necessary. But so far, they aren’t having trouble finding buyers willing to pay $2M to $3M here:
I think we can say that February has been at least as hot as January! It may be irrational exuberance, but it’s going to continue until there is significant boost in supply.
In 2021, how many garages have 2-3 cars parked inside? We should change the name from garage to ‘flex space’, or ‘California basement’. Hat tip to my friend Ken:
JBREC was pleased to be asked to be part of a team assembled by Pro Builder Magazine to collaborate on a concept home for their “Immersive Show Village” that was highlighted last week at IBSx and is available to tour all year long. The home was dubbed “The New New Home” and JBREC’s research, in collaboration with Pro Builder and Woodley Architecture Group helped form the vision.
Over the past year, the pandemic provided the opportunity for us to examine how people live now and how they will be living in the future. The team considered the functionality of the entire house from the front to the garage, outdoor spaces, and casitas. The following provides a glimpse into the research.
A 2,500-square-foot home that is right-sized for the family. The team chose to challenge itself by designing a home on a typical lot that is readily available throughout the country. The profile is a family with two children (around 9 and 12) with parents working from home and children attending school from home. Selfishly, this describes Ken’s family so we had a little bit of a head start.
A need for privacy. The New New Home was designed to look inward instead of toward the street with an interior courtyard rather than a larger front porch. This layout offers a private retreat while connecting almost every room on the lower floor to the outdoors. The courtyard also provides a safe place to drop off packages just inside the front gate.
Will we always need a two-car garage? Maybe not. While the home’s design highlighted a two-car garage, it included a single-car option to inspire and ask “what if?” In a future where we rely less on cars, the flexibility to offer a single car garage creates the opportunity for extra square footage, building in options to suit the preferences of different owners. The single-car option still allows for storage space in the garage and opens the possibility for more entertaining space in the courtyard.
A casita for multifunctional space. While the main house stays under 2,500 square feet, the guest house adds livable space. This multifunctional room could work as a guest quarters or multigenerational suite for extended family, whether a parent or a boomerang child who graduated college but is not ready to start their career. In the July 10, 2020 edition of The Light, we noted that more than 1.1 million 23-to-30-year-olds had moved “back home” since February. The casita could also function as a home office that is separate from the house.
A large, functional backyard. When asked to choose between a large backyard and a larger front yard, homeowners indicated the backyard was more important. The New New Home offers a private courtyard and a nicely sized backyard. The yard is large enough to include outdoor seating areas, a space to garden, an outdoor kitchen, and includes a covered outdoor room with transition space between the great room and the backyard.
A simple and open kitchen layout with all of the appliances along one wall is supported by a spacious island providing space for the kitchen sink and informal dining. Storage is important, and while this home doesn’t have a walk-in pantry, a run of cabinetry between a “clean room” (designed as a healthy transition space from the outside) and kitchen takes the place of the walk-in setup.
Multiple spots to accommodate working from home. JBREC’s consumer research found that 60% of households earning $50K+ who are working from home right now anticipate continuing to work from home at least part-time post COVID. The New New home includes two work spaces located on separate floors. Both offices were designed to incorporate lots of light, while considering the background behind the workspace. The offices have smaller dimensions to accommodate a built-in desk and storage but no space for clients “sitting across” from the worker.
Your kids live at home too! Our August 14 edition of The Light highlighted the need for spaces dedicated to remote learning as more than 4.0 million students were impacted by school closures. This home was designed to accommodate a growing family with the children’s “wing” featuring two secondary bedrooms that share a bath, and a layout that maximizes separation between the kids’ wing and the primary suite. The children’s bedroom provides space for separate study or remote learning areas.
Our New Home Trends Institute, our consumer research, and our constant “on-the-ground” consulting work continues to help inform our knowledge of how people live and how their homes are evolving. Let us show you how to implement these strategies into your next new home community.
If you have any questions, please contact Ken Perlman, Managing Principal, at (858) 281-7214 or kperlman@realestateconsulting.com.
Hat tip to just some guy for sending this news which shows that while migration has increased, many are opting to stay closer to home:
San Francisco’s chief economist, Ted Egan, said that while the out-migration patterns are alarming — only Manhattan has had as large an increase in people leaving the city during the pandemic — the fact that many are not going very far could represent “a silver lining” as the economy recovers post-pandemic.
“You are not going to have to worry about getting them to move back from Boise,” he said. “It looks more like normal pre-COVID migration flows. People are settling into nearby Bay Area suburbs. They are going to Sacramento and L.A. Travis County, which is Austin, Texas, is way down the list. Portland is way down the list. New York is way down the list.”
Maybe it means that our 55+ crowd may grab their old property-tax basis and just move a little further out after April 1st? We only need a few hundred of them to do so!
Are we getting any more inventory? Are more homes coming to market?
There have been a few more good listings, which gives hope. The Super Bowl being on February 7th was later than usual, but the overall numbers are still very light:
NSDCC New Listings Between Feb 1 – Feb 15
Year
Total Number of Listings
Median List Price
Number Under $2M
Total Sold
% Sold
2019
207
$1,650,000
135
132
64%
2020
208
$1,731,500
126
121
58%
2021
140
$1,776,500
85
?
?
The 2021 count will climb a bit higher, but it’s safe to say that we are still well behind where we usually are.
If we end up around 165 listings, and the percentage sold improves to 70%, it would equal 116 sales which is close to the 2020 total.
If all we are missing are the casual sellers that wouldn’t have sold anyway, are we any worse off?
Not really – and the market would be more efficient if we’re just left with the serious players all around.
Here it is, literally the worst house on the street! The Seller has done the hard work of cleaning up the almost half-acre property (it only took 7 dumpsters!), so now is your chance to take it from here.
Have you ever watched HGTV and thought, “I could do that!”? If so, pack up your tape measure and start Googling how to identify a load-bearing wall because it’s time to put your money where your mouth is!
The roof leaks, the floor creaks, and there’s a terrible draft, but this 3 bed, 1.5 bath home is very open concept. And by that we mean the inside is open to the outside because several of the windows are broken. There is a large, sunny window in the kitchen… and absolutely nothing else – a wonderful feature for someone interested in a bright reading space (and ordering take out for every meal).
Now I know you’ve heard of a detached garage, but have you ever heard of a detached foundation?! Because that’s what you’ll find here in the large bonus room at the right of the home. And if you’re looking for a house that screams “I’ve got bizarre and ominous energy!” then honey stop the car because you’ve found it right here conveniently located off of US-301 in North Zephyrhills.
If you need a place to stage your next post-apocalyptic zombie movie, this is it (the covered porch has really good “rest here on your way to the safe zone” vibes). And whether you like to turn up the heat or keep it cool, it won’t matter here because there is no HVAC system. Oh and don’t forget about the brick chimney that perfectly epitomizes how we all feel after 2020 – about to collapse and going nowhere (literally, there is no fireplace inside the house).
What else can be say about this one-of-a-kind opportunity? It’s not in a flood zone and will be conveyed with clear title! But we don’t have a survey and the Seller has never seen the property, so buyers are strongly encouraged to do their own due diligence. And if you’re not interested in crying yourself to sleep every night while you rehab this home, might we suggest tearing it down and building a brand new one in its place? The neighbors would likely thank you.
If you are thinking of selling your house this summer, expedite your plans!
Volatility has returned to the mortgage market in grand fashion this week with many lenders quoting rates that are as much as a quarter of a point higher than they were last week. That means if you were looking at something in the 2.75% neighborhood on Friday, it could be 3.0% today. What gives?
The upward pressure is nothing new, really. It has existed in the broader bond market since August, but only recently began spilling over to the mortgage market. We’ve been discussing the increased risks of such a spillover in the event of a sharper bond market move and yesterday brought just such a move. Today was much more docile by comparison, but it didn’t do anything heroic to push back against yesterday’s weakness.
Still, there could be some promise of stability in the fact that the bond market was even able to hold steady today. Reason being: economic data and other events clearly suggested another bad day for bonds. Retail Sales surged at one of the best paces on record and inflation rose abruptly at the producer level. Both of those headlines make strong cases for higher rates, but Treasury yields ended the day slightly LOWER than yesterday. That sort of resilience may be a clue that bonds have had enoughweakness for now (bond weakness = higher rates, all other things being equal).
Mortgage lenders are WIDELY stratified in terms of rate offerings with the more aggressive crowd averaging 2.875% (no points) on top tier 30yr fixed refinances and the less aggressive crowd being closer to 3.125% (conventional 30yr fixed).
