The California Association of Realtors has released their 2019 forecast (above).
Their projections haven’t been that close, which means their guess of 3.3% fewer sales should end up being -5% to -8%. The pricing statistics should keep rising though, due to buyers holding out for superior homes – with fewer inferior homes selling, the median can rise even though prices are stagnant or falling.
A comparison of the C.A.R. forecasts (released every October):
Category
2018 Forecast
2018 Actual
2019 Forecast
SFH Resales #
426.2M
410.5M
396.8M
SFH Resales %chg
+1%
-3.2%
-3.3%
SFH Median SP
$561,000
$575,800
$593,400
SFH Median SP %chg
+4.2%
+7%
+3.1%
30YR rate
4.3%
4.7%
5.2%
From the C.A.R.
Market shift underway as housing shortage issue becomes demand issue
A combination of high home prices and eroding affordability is expected to cut into housing demand and contribute to a weaker housing market in 2019, and 2018 home sales will register lower for the first time in four years, according to a housing and economic forecast released today by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.).
C.A.R.’s “2019 California Housing Market Forecast” sees a modest decline in existing single-family home sales of 3.3 percent next year to reach 396,800 units, down from the projected 2018 sales figure of 410,460. The 2018 figure is 3.2 percent lower compared with the 424,100 pace of homes sold in 2017.
“While home prices are predicted to temper next year, interest rates will likely rise and compound housing affordability issues,” said C.A.R. President Steve White. “Would-be buyers who are concerned that home prices may have peaked will wait on the sidelines until they have more clarity on where the housing market is headed. This could hold back housing demand and hamper home sales in 2019.”
With the racing taking place just five metres from the shore of Harbor Island, the man-made peninsula located close to Downtown San Diego, the Series looks set to make a show-stopping return to the Americas for the penultimate Act. Enjoying a very temperate climate, the Californian city of San Diego sees consistent breezes, making it a favorite sailing spot for California and the rest of the west coast.
The eighth-largest city in the US, San Diego is known for its beautiful weather and pristine beaches as well its plethora of entertainment. Take in the ocean views at Sunset Cliffs Natural Park, try out the outstanding Mexican food, visit one of the many great surf spots, or take a trip to one of the numerous museums, zoos or theme parks.
We’re in record territory, price-wise, so it’s no surprise that buyers are being hesitant. Sellers who have been unsuccessful will shrug off the second half of 2018 as a ‘bad’ market, and try again next spring with the same enthusiasm.
Will buyers shrug it off too? Yes, if they find the perfect match – that is the Rancho effect, where sellers and buyers just wait for miracles.
We’ve seen how consumers just want to push a button to buy or sell now, which should make buyers more conservative – they are operating with skimpy evidence and are reluctant to seek help, so expect more wait-and-see.
In other words, it’s probably not going to get any better than this, and we can expect more sluggishness during the next selling season too.
Tom feels the way I do – lower the price early, while urgency is in play.
Redfin raised their estimate for a third time, now at $1,055,196, so our new $999,000 list price looks very compelling! I expect Redfin will lower their estimate shortly.
This is from Friday morning – their estimate was $1,040,313:
This was the zestimate on Sunday – it is the same today:
Our NSDCC sales in May and June were down 20% each, but then we bounced back in July and August to match the sales from 2017.
But the sales last month were disappointing (down 20% again):
NSDCC September Sales
Year
# of Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median SP
Median DOM
2013
263
$470/sf
$1,110,000
30
2014
236
$480/sf
$1,091,000
29
2015
251
$472/sf
$1,059,000
31
2016
264
$515/sf
$1,179,250
24
2017
259
$533/sf
$1,265,000
25
2018
207
$580/sf
$1,320,000
21
The whole region is following the example set in Rancho Santa Fe, where sellers wait patiently for months or years before the market catches up with them.
Authentic and like-new modern farmhouse west of I-5 – wow! New roof, new HVAC, new baths, new and expanded kitchen with chef’s island, master suite with huge walk-in closet – and all done with permits too! Wire-brushed French Oak hardwood floors, board & batten siding, vintage farmhouse lighting all done in exquisite detail – impressive! Multi-gen will love the multiple bedrooms downstairs, and this is half the price you’d pay in Encinitas/Carlsbad for a turn-key farmhouse this close to the beach!
Here’s a tour of a popular 3,377sf floor plan in the gated Santa Barbara tract by Pardee in Carmel Valley. This closed for $1,450,000 last week, and the agent noted that there was $50,000 in water damage, which probably accounted for the discount off the list price.
Hat tip to Kerry for sending in the final result of Warren Buffett’s beach house in Laguna Beach:
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has sold his California beach house for roughly $7.5 million, or 32% less than its original asking price, according to a spokeswoman for the listing agent.
Mr. Buffett, the 88-year-old Berkshire Hathaway chairman nicknamed “the Oracle of Omaha,” first put the home on the market for $11 million in February 2017. He cut the asking price to $7.9 million in late August in a bid to spur interest. Don’t feel too badly for him: The businessman paid $150,000 for the home in the early 1970s.
The three-level Emerald Bay home spans 3,500 square feet, with six bedrooms and views of the beach. Per Mr. Buffett’s modest style, it is decorated with white laminate countertops and gray carpets.
“I feel very good about the couple who bought the house and hope their family gets as much enjoyment from it as our family did,” Mr. Buffett said in a statement.
