Our low inventory has buyers starved for houses to purchase. When they see a good one, they react immediately – an attractively-priced house will have people driving by within the first hour or two on the market!
Sellers should be aware, and expect to sell their house right away.
Those who don’t shine up their house before listing, or those who get exuberant about price – thinking they have plenty of time – will miss a golden opportunity. The most desperate buyers are motivated to pay top dollar in the first few days on the market!
Here are the number of NSDCC houses sold up to $1,400,000 in the first quarter, ranked by days-on-market:
Avg DOM
2013 #/SP:LP
2014 #/SP:LP
2015 #/SP:LP
2016 #/SP:LP
0
19/97.0%
8/98.2%
6/91.9%
9/97.4%
1-14
205/99.5%
169/99.4%
160/98.6%
125/99.3%
15-30
80/97.2%
58/97.7%
65/96.7%
64/97.7%
31-60
68/96.5%
78/96.5%
83/96.7%
72/97.0%
61+
157/95.5%
96//94.8%
104/96.1%
89/95.9%
Sellers – you want to get your price, right?
The houses that sell closest to list price are those that go pending in the first two weeks. These SP:LP ratios are based on the list price on the pending date – the price which typically needs to be lowered first to get a buyer to offer, because they know it isn’t working after the first few weeks.
Hire a listing agent who can handle the immediate urgency – Get Good Help!
We will examine it in a few ways – first let’s just check the sales count and MSP.
The sales that record today, plus the late-reporters, will increase the 2016 count, but we’re probably not going to get close to the 2015 number of sales, nor the median sales price. This should be a common dilemma with 2016 stats – 2015 was so good, it will be hard to match it this year.
NSDCC 1st Quarter Stats
Year
Number of 1Q Sales
Median Sales Price
2011
553
$835,000
2012
577
$793,000
2013
672
$850,000
2014
581
$1,000,000
2015
629
$1,162,500
2016
532
$1,126,500
We will sell a similar number of houses this quarter as we did in 1Q12, when the median sales price was 42% lower.
The resilience is strong – people want a coastal house!
Yesterday another one of the more famous ivory-tower guys made an interesting statement:
“The low inventory of homes for sale — currently about a five-month supply — means that would-be sellers seeking to trade up are having a hard time finding a new, larger home,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
As is the case with most of these random quotes, there is no reference cited for the comment. He’s just making stuff up.
Sellers who are ‘seeking to trade up’ are having the easier time of it, and the inventory gets more bloated the higher you go.
It is the potential sellers who are thinking of moving DOWN that are reluctant to enter the market. Why?
It is brutal trying to move down comfortably, especially if you want to use the proceeds from the sale of your more-expensive home!
The lower you go, the hotter it gets!
Here are today’s 2016 stats for NSDCC houses (La Jolla to Carlsbad):
Category
Under-$1,400,000
Over-$1,400,000
Active Listings
238
697
Pending Listings
259
163
Sold in 2016
348
172
Solds Avg Days on Market
45
57
SP:LP
97.6%
93.9%
The $1,400,000 mark is what we’ve seen to be the max sweet spot for the hottest markets. Below that price today, there are more pendings that actives!
Can we put to rest the old adage that it takes longer to sell the more-expensive homes in this hyper-era? On average, we’re talking 12 more days, yet how many high-enders do you see languishing on the market for months or years just thinking that it takes more time?
Blitzy and other ivory-tower types should plug in – has there ever been a better time to move up? Jumbo rates are below conforming rates, there are more houses for sale and the pace is slower. It’s a great time to buy up!
We’ve all heard the rule about listing your home for sale in the spring.
But when are buyers actually buying?
Are there any times when the demand could wane, and sellers should avoid?
There are three events that could cause a lull in the demand:
Easter/Spring Break
Tax Day/Season
Graduation Season
If all we had to worry about was Easter Day, then we might lose a few hours – there were plenty of open houses on Saturday. But families with school-age kids get 9-10 days off, which is tempting for them to spend on vacation.
Should sellers wait?
Then you have the tax-day slowdown, which is usually the 1-2 days that people waste having to arm-wrestle with their income taxes.
Keep waiting?
Graduation season is more than it used to be, with every kid from pre-school through college getting the pomp and circumstance fit for a king.
Good grief – it will be mid-summer by the time every distraction clears!
Let’s examine the most important fact – when are buyers buying?
These intervals below were based on the hunch that the combined spring-break/tax-day season (3/16-4/15) might show some weakness:
NSDCC Detached-Home Closed Sales – Dates They Were Marked Pending:
Year
2/16-3/15
3/16-4/15
4/16-5/15
5/16-6/15
7/16-8/15
2012
264
297
309
307
231
2013
293
362
340
326
248
2014
231
271
303
261
264
2015
264
318
308
311
289
Avg
263
312
315
301
258
How about that!
The spring-break/tax-day season was the hottest of the year in 2015, and on average about as good of a time to sell as any!
The couple is looking for a home under $2 million, but they’ve found little suitable near a good public school. They’ve put in only two offers in the roughly six months they’ve been looking — and were unsuccessful both times.
This month, Lee, 32, went to a packed open house for a four-bedroom house in north Redondo Beach. It was so busy that the real estate agent ran out of fliers. She put in an offer for more than the $1-million asking price but lost. Instead, the home went into escrow to another buyer, less than a week after it was listed for sale.
In such a hot market, would-be sellers are conflicted about whether to cash in now or wait for prices to rise further. Some have begun to question how long the hot market can last.
“They think we are due for a correction,” said Nikki Hochstein, an agent who specializes in the Westside and is helping the Lees find a home.
On a recent Sunday, about 150 people flocked to a three-bedroom condo in West L.A. for an open house, agent Tregg Rustad said.
Among the interested buyers were Sameena Shaikh, a medical researcher, and her husband, Muddassar, who works as a software engineer in Santa Monica.
The couple have been searching for a home for about a year but haven’t pulled the trigger. In that time, they’ve seen prices rise and now fear mortgage rates will jump. As they surveyed the packed open house they vowed to be less picky.
“We don’t want to make the same mistake,” Sameena said.
Muddassar explained their new tactic: “Let’s just buy something.”
The NAR pending index for February was released today, and it was modestly positive. In the West, it was the best non-seasonally-adjusted number since October. But who cares – April starts on Friday!
“Any further moderation in prices would be a welcome development this spring,” adds Yun. “Particularly in the West, where it appears a segment of would-be buyers are becoming wary of high asking prices and stiff competition.”
New NSDCC pendings were down 15% this week, but the market can wane a bit around spring break. Or does it? More on that later today!
Click on the ‘Read More’ link below for the NSDCC active-inventory data:
I ran into Keith at the Carlsbad Company Stores and wondered if he is more famous than Robbie Krieger or Michael McDonald as the two other most famous people I've met?
Jim the Realtor is legit - I interviewed three brokers; he said list price should be $100,000 higher than the other two brokers; listed it with him and had all cash (no financing) offer in two days, five day contingency period, closing in two weeks - and it closed at his recommended list price. I could not recommend anyone more than I recommend Jim the Realtor.
drp2drp
2020-12-30
When we moved to San Diego in 2005 we rented a big house on Mt. Soledad (La Jolla) with 180 degree ocean views for the same payment as a mortgage on a dump in Chula Vista. Clearly something was wrong. Yet, the media was full of the usual happy-talk nonsense, so I was glad to find Jim's blog. I've followed his honest assessments and data since.
We decided to sell and move to AZ at Thanksgiving. Dec. 1st we met with Jim to sell our home. We closed today (29 days later). Jim orchestrated a feeding frenzy -- we had 25 showings in 2-1/2 days, multiple offers, and sold for well over asking price. I'd say he earned his commission! We have owned and sold homes in 5 different States always using experienced, productive, full-time realtors. Jim outshines them all.
You don't decide to sell and close 29 days later over Christmas (with COVID lockdown) without some miracles. Donna was amazing at performing lots of those miracles and ensuring that everything was done right and on time. They are a terrific team with a very responsive and professional network.
AmberleePiercy
2020-10-21
Where do we begin..2020 has been a year for everyone. When COVID hit and shut down both my husband and my businesses, we were left with a mortgage and very little income coming in. We were stressed, scared and felt stuck. We made the hard decision to sell our home and move out of state. We contacted the Klinges' and spent a good hour going over what we hoped we could accomplish. Jim and Donna came over with comps in hand and suggestions on improvements to get our house ready for the market. It was overwhelming to think about, but Donna was there and one step ahead in every scenario. Basically we just approved what they suggested and Donna handled literally everything. We placed our house on the market and within the first day we had multiple offers well above asking price! We couldn't believe it. We were overjoyed! Jim countered the offers to weed through them, and everyone came back with way more. It was amazing, and we are ?? sure it was because of the staging and repairs the Klinges suggested we do.
Due to unforeseen dishonesty from the buyers lender, we hit a big hurdle when trying to close. We had already moved out of state and were shocked when three days before closing the lender dropped a bombshell on the buyers and us. However, Jim and Donna handled it like veterans, not afraid to play hard ball and represent their clients. After a few phone calls with us, and several between Donna and the lender, they had a plan B-Z to make sure we were taken care of. In the end we closed with even more money than we ever thought possible and with very little work from us. The Klinges handled this entire "2020" worthy event with the utmost professionalism and did everything in their power to not only make this as smooth as possible for us, but we also walked away with more money from the sale of the house than we ever hoped for. After working with Jim and Donna, you don't ever use anyone else. They are hands down the best team to represent you in any scenario.
Cecilia Acevedo
2020-10-01
Working with Klinge Realty Group was a great experience! They are very responsive, professional and knowledgable about the real estate market! I would definitely recommend Klinge Realty Group.
WAH08
2020-10-01
Jim and Donna Klinge made the sale of our condo extraordinarily easy. They know the market and gave us sound advice backed by details and very considerable experience, reflected both in the initial pricing and subsequent negotiations. They work together as a team and are always available to talk. We had a few challenges with our property and they were able to coordinate the resolution to everything, including items that I would not think would ordinarily be their responsibility to handle. They made the whole process effortless on our part. They are folks with high integrity and we cannot recommend them highly enough.
bethamunce
2019-09-26
Review for Member: Donna Klinge
I cannot believe there are no reviews of Donna yet, ugh!! She is the secret sauce of the Jim Klinge/Donna Klinge combo! I will touch on Jim here, but Donna is why I'm so totally loyal to these two (no offense to Jim :)).
I consider myself a rather savvy buyer/seller. I've bought/sold 7 times in about 15 years. On the buy side, Jim is the PERFECT combo of: completely digitally savvy (he will pull data all day long until you feel comfortable with your chosen house, area, school district, anticipated appreciation rate...anything!), he's super well respected and known in the area by other agents, an amazingly cool but strategic negotiator, is totally devoid of desperation for a sale/commission, and more.
Then once you get into contract phase, Donna literally handles every last and final detail in a concierge-like manner -- totally shielding you from the daily back and forth, noodling and annoyances of the buyer's requests. She solves it ALL; it's miraculous what that woman accomplishes over and above what is even expected in a buy/sell transaction.
On the sell side, Jim and Donna do the same, but even moreso. Donna in particular truly takes everything off your plate: she'll manage getting the house painted, the carpets replaced, she'll go on site (as she Jim both did for me when selling our rental properties) to work with the renters and make sure the house is ready to show -- freeing me to have to take time off of work to do so. They work with A+ integrity, too, so you know you are serving all parties fairly and lawfully throughout.
A home purchase/sale is the most considered you'll ever make. HIRE A SAVVY AGENT, not a friend!, and get what you need out of the transaction. Jim and Donna are our agents for life.
Ann Romanello
2019-04-06
Jim and Donna Klinge are by far the most professional, personable and responsive realtors I have ever worked with. They provide VIP concierge level service in every area of the process of selling your home. My home was marketed so successfully that we received an offer the day after our first and only open house. Thanks to Jim's pricing and negotiating, our house is now the highest sold in our community. Jim's vast experience means he has worked with several realtors and knows the market all over north county. Donna is AMAZING in processing everything in the transaction. She scheduled trades people to work on the house in preparation for the sale as well as the repairs needed before closing. She communicated clearly every step of the way about what would be happening. She took the weight off my shoulders for the whole process. I will always use Jim and Donna for my future real estate needs and I whole heartedly recommend them to anyone buying or selling a home.
zuser20160915180743456
2018-07-03
Jim and the team at Klinge Reality are without a doubt the best in the business! Not only was Jim helpful and extremely knowledgeable, he was patient and determined to help me find my first home. Jim and his team have been in the business for many years, and it shows. Jim is a wealth of knowledge and was my biggest proponent despite the temperature of the competitive market. I ended up getting the perfect property in my dream neighborhood all thanks to Jim. From the day my offer was accepted, Donna was a real lifesaver. She was extremely helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable when it came to every minute detail, and held my hand through the process. As a first time home buyer I had no idea what the process would entail, but Donna curtailed every concern I came across and made the escrow process feel seamless. Jim and Donna provided me the best home buying experience, and I am very grateful for all they did for me. It was truly a pleasure to work with Jim and Donna and I am already looking forward to the next time we work together!
melanielogue
2018-04-30
Review for Member: Richard Morgan
Richard is an amazing realtor! He has high integrity and genuinely cares about his clients and their needs. Richard paid close attention to what I was seeking in a home and was very patient in our search to find it. I would highly recommend Richard and will use him for future transactions. Truly a different kind of realtor experience!
shaunccornell
2018-03-28
Could not be happier with my experience with Jim and his team. He helped me sell a very unique and challenging property. Throughout the entire process he was always available, honest, transparent, trustworthy, and always put my interests as a seller first. A (rare) true professional! During close of escrow Jim went above and beyond to complete the deal. It would not have been possible without his experience, fantastic team, and pure dedication. Highly recommended!
Thanks Jim and Donna Klinge!
