We are going through this now in our family, and it’s probably happening to you or someone you know. It’s a reminder that if you’re a senior and have one move left, it’s so much better to move sooner, rather than later (trying to put a real estate spin on this touching video).
The market is so much different now than it used to be that we should jettison all previous assumptions (paraphrased from a Rob Dawg comment years ago).
In the old days, prices would be coming down by now because the demand would have been severely impacted by higher prices and rates – but not today:
Is it just early? Maybe, but are sellers going to dump on price when there’s always next year? With virtually no foreclosures and unemployment, there aren’t the usual pressures on sellers, and most will wait it out, rather than lower their price in a panic.
The real impact will be on the number of sales. We’ve already experienced – and survived – around 100 sales per month in the off season, and if that happened every month of the year, we’d find a way to live with that too.
Sellers need to choose – do more to spruce up the house for sale, or be willing to take less. If the house is already dated and needing a full renovation, the discount will probably be getting larger, because buyers are putting up a fight.
Here are examples of the November discounts – only one sold over list:
The median sales price could levitate, or even rise, while more discounts off the aspirational list prices keep happening!
Here’s the tour of the Solana Beach listing from last night:
Nobody is giving away the premium properties. The more premium, the more buyers!
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I should do more follow-ups on listings seen here previously for market calibration:
This RSF view estate sold for $23,500,000 full price cash in five days.
The Solana Beach fixer that listed for $1,995,000 did close escrow for $1,960,000:
Our listing in Terramar closed escrow for $2,440,000 with a 1031 buyer from LA:
Buying the superior properties for a fair price is something Charlie Munger would say!
While a surge in inventory next year would help to change the market dynamics, there isn’t any hard evidence of it happening yet:
How many would be considered a surge? If the number of new listings rose 10% or even 20%, would anyone notice? Probably not.
Using these November numbers, and adding an extra 20% would only get us back to last year’s total – which we thought was bleak then. but now I’d take it!
It would take a real bump to get buyers to step back and say, ‘hold on, I’m going to wait and see where this goes for a month or two’.
Let’s guess that it would take at least a 25% increase in new listings for buyers to pause.
I was asking around yesterday, but nobody had anything definite to report about their new-listings flow for next year. One agent thought that we’re going to see a lot of short sales though (???).
In 2024, you will be able to buy a million-dollar home in San Diego County with 3% down.
Thank you taxpayers!
What will it take to qualify for a $1,006,250 loan? The P&I payment at 7% is $6,695, and by the time you add PMI, property taxes, insurance, and HOA, the total payment will be around $8,733 per month.
It would take an annual income of $325,000 to qualify with only a car payment or two, and no other debts.
Hopefully those earning $325,000 have more than 3% to contribute to the down payment. But if not, it’s ok if you want to opt for the max mortgage interest write-off instead. What a great country!
Michele and I cruise around twice a week looking at the new listings.
I love it because I get to pontificate about the business and give her guidance like a good broker should.
She asks many great questions, and today was no exception. She had read the blog post from 2009 where I said agents should know the hot buys. She asked about the definition of a hot buy.
Today there is an easy formula to identify a hot buy:
If the number of Zillow Saves is 5% or more of the Zillow Views, it is a hot buy.
If the Zillow Saves are 7% to 10% of the Zillow Views, grab your checkbook – because it is sizzling hot.
Of course, now that I’ve divulged my tip, a few agents will manipulate the counts so if the listing agent is a known scumbag, then don’t trust their counts. You know who the scumbags are, don’t you?
We came up with another idea too.
If the house is one-story, newer, and the price is attractive, it’s a hot buy. But then we went one better.
If the house has two of the three (one-story, newer, attractive price), it’s probably a hot buy anyway.
If the list price is attractive, that is enough to power any sale, but if the price is attractive and the house is either one-story or newer it will probably be a hot buy. In 2024, a newer one-story house doesn’t even need to have an attractive price – there are so few of them that they can ask anything they want.
We saw three houses for sale today that will demonstrate my theorem. All are one-story homes that have been improved and should appeal to the maximum number of buyers – especially the seniors who have the money and will only consider a renovated one-story in a good location with some view:
For those who desire a full ocean view from both the family room AND the primary suite and can live with 1,620sf built in 1986 on a smaller lot in Carmel Valley, you can’t do much better than this for $2M:
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/13384-pantera-road-san-diego-ca-92130/1443561425642687169
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If you want a fully-renovated one-story house just east of the freeway in Solana Beach that overlooks the golf course, then this would be worth a look:
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/332-santa-helena-solana-beach-ca-92075/1451069101991133209
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Want to step it up and buy a brand-new 4,194sf one-story house with ADU in a prime Del Mar location with ocean view – and price is no object? Then this is for you, priced at $16,995,000:
https://www.compass.com/app/listing/355-bellaire-street-del-mar-ca-92014/1447350924812111265
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Why would these three list for sale now instead of waiting until next year? Well, I can’t help you with that. It is the most lucrative time ever for buyers to pause during the absolute peak wait-and-see period of all-time.
So if 1-2 of these go pending by the end of the year, it will show that the premium properties are always hot – and I wouldn’t be surprised if they all sell.
He doesn’t mention that we don’t get paid up front, we don’t get paid along the way, and we only get paid if we successfully close the sale – which in this day and age is harder than ever.
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This sold for $5,810,000 on April 28th of last year, which was the last peak of the market- mortgage rates were around 5% then and have risen to just under 8% today. It didn’t stop or slow down a buyer from paying a whopping $6,300,000 cash for it today:
Ok, ok – yesterday I said that we’re at the highest pricing ever, but the San Diego non-seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Index isn’t quite there yet.
But it feels like record pricing around the north county coastal region, doesn’t it?
The index dropped eight months in a row last year, and it might track negatively over the next few readings of 2023 – big whoop. The index gave back 11% last year, and we’ve regained all but 2% of it this year. It is a seasonal event that will probably repeat in the coming years.
If the pricing keeps trending upward in 2024, at least it should be somewhat offset by lower mortgage rates this time. The quick rise in rates in the middle to late 2022 had to be reflected in the pricing, which it was. But this year, pricing held up nicely in spite of touching 8% rates recently.
I’m predicting an increase in listings next year, and it could amount to a full-blown surge. I already have three listings lined up for early-2024, which has never happened this early – there have been years where I get well into January without sniffing a new listing!
I’ll survey my fellow agents over the next couple of weeks to see what they say – two have already agreed!
If your listing doesn’t sell, or your listing agent withdraws it and then ‘refreshes’ it by inputting it a second time into the MLS, don’t be surprised if your phone starts ringing around 7am the next morning – and ring non-stop for hours, days, and weeks.
Did you know that those solicitations are prohibited?
While the listing agents might get a little frosty, they probably won’t do anything about it. Of course, there isn’t any MLS police either, so these solicitations run unabated – you will literally get dozens of calls and mailers, plus agents knocking on your door.
If lawyers want to chase around realtors for all the scummy things that happen, they will be busy!
