The blip in active listings over the last week isn’t too concerning and could just be from the weather.

The count of active listings is a good indicator of the demand though. During the mega-frenzy conditions from late-2020 through early-2022, you can see that the new listings were being gobbled up as quickly as they came on the market, and there was no build-up of the supply. Last year, the demand was hot enough in the early months that the active-listing counts were fairly flat too.

If this year’s count of active listings surges above 400, it will mean that we are exiting the frenzy days, and the market’s normalization is underway.

It is subject to the overall number of listings, and I’ll reuse yesterday’s chart to show the flow:

NSDCC Listings and Sales, Jan 1 – Feb 15

The total number of listings in 2024 is still in the frenzy range.

It’s the number of active listings that help demonstrate the velocity of the demand. Are they being gobbled up as fast as they hit the market like in recent years, leaving the number of actives fairly steady? Or are the actives starting to pile up, like they used to do? (see the 2019 green line in graph at top)

This is how we will know where the Spring Selling Season is going.

Buyers already have reason to be cautious and wait patiently because Powell opened his big yap and said he was going to lower his rate THREE times in 2024.

If the active listings break out of the frenzy range and start stacking up unsold, it will be irresistible for buyers to wait longer to see if sellers capitulate on price, while hoping rates might come down too.

Want to know where the market is going? Just watch the number/trend of the active listings!

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