NSDCC Under List

During the frenzy there were months where 70% to 80% of the sales were closing over their list price.

Recently it’s been down to around 25% of the buyers paid over the list price.

How many paid under?

We’re in an affluent area so let’s get our money’s worth.

How many buyers this month paid at least $100,000 UNDER the list price?

Of the 142 closings in August, 36% of them closed at least $100,000 under their original list price.

And you’re going to try and do this without an agent?

Get Good Help!

 

None of Their Business

Will listing agents demand to see the buyer-broker agreement just to show a house?

Agents are known to have their own interpretations of the rules – one listing agent already said that it is against the rules to ask her if her seller is paying concessions – so it is probably inevitable that some will think it is another way to screen out showings to people they decide aren’t worth the trouble.

In California, for instance, the California Regional MLS (CRMLS) has responded to the settlement with Rule 9.1, which governs “selling procedures.” While this rule clearly outlines the buyer broker’s obligations with respect to representation agreements, it does not impose any additional requirements on a listing broker to verify the presence of such agreements. In fact, the rule explicitly states, “Nothing in this policy shall impose any restriction or requirement upon the Listing Broker.”

Though it is advisable to review the specific rules of your local MLS — since these can vary — it appears that, at least in California, listing brokers are not obligated to confirm the existence of a signed buyer agreement. That said, some brokers may choose to implement internal policies requiring their listing agents to inquire about buyer agents’ compliance with these requirements as part of their due diligence process. This could include adding a step to their listing checklist to ensure that all parties are acting in accordance with the new rules.

It’s worth noting, still, that if not mandated by MLS policy or regulated by law, any inquiry or request for proof of a buyer agreement by a listing agent might not always be well-received or even acknowledged by a buyer’s agent. Nevertheless, if a listing agent suspects that a buyer’s agent is not complying with the new requirements, they may choose to report the issue to the relevant MLS or their local or state association.

In summary, while there is no formal requirement for listing agents to verify the existence of a signed buyer agreement, some licensed practitioners may adopt this practice as a precautionary measure. As the industry adapts to these changes, peer enforcement is likely to become more common, as accountability among NAR members and MLS participants will be increasingly expected.

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

I think we will experience a very similar trend in 2025.

A hot market and prices for the first four months, and mellow-down-easy for the rest of the year.

And April was already slowing. The first quarter of 2025 will be prime selling season!

Plan accordingly!

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“While both housing and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is larger than historical norms, with our National Index averaging 2.8% more than the Consumer Price Index,” noted Brian Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in a release. “That is a full percentage point above the 50-year average. Before accounting for inflation, home prices have risen over 1,100% since 1974, but have slightly more than doubled (111%) after accounting for inflation.”

New York saw the highest annual gain among the 20 cities, with prices climbing 9% in June, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with annual increases of 8.7% and 8.5%, respectively. Portland, Oregon, saw just a 0.8% annual rise in June, the smallest gain of the top cities.

Since housing affordability has been a major talking point in this election cycle, this month’s report also broke out home values by price tier, dividing each city’s market into three tiers. Looking just at large markets over the past five years, it found that 75% of the markets covered show low-price tiers rising faster than the overall market.

“For example, the lower tier of the Atlanta market has risen 18% faster than the middle- and higher-tiered homes,” Luke wrote in the release.

“New York’s low tier has the largest five-year outperformance, rising nearly 20% above the overall New York region,” he continued. “New York also has the largest divergence between low- and high-tier prices. Conversely, San Diego has seen the largest appreciation in higher-tier homes over the past five years.”

Prices in the overall San Diego market are up 72% in the past five years, but the high tier is up 79% versus 63% for the lower tier.

Off-Market Sales

The off-market sales are an attractive option for big shots like John above who prefer to protect their privacy, blah, blah. What about the regular folk? Is there a bulk of sales happening off-market?

How many off-market sales are there in the general marketplace?

Lance has been doing a great job documenting the natonal real estate market. He found a company that did a study and they said that there have been 1,200,000 off-market sales in the county this year, including 60,000+ in California:

https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/lot-home-sales-happening-offmarketjust-look-map

Of course, realtors can’t brag enough about their off-market conquests, and getting tipped to their pocket listings will be one of the primary pitches you will be hearing from aggressive agents at open houses. Braggadocio like this:

I checked the most recent 196 single-family sales in Encinitas, Rancho Santa Fe, and Carmel Valley in all price ranges. I reviewed the tax records and the MLS and found 19 homes that were sold off-market.

The 19 off-market sales break down like this:

10 were entered onto the MLS with zero days on market.

4 agents sold their own home off-market (?).

4 were flippers (2 buys and 2 sells)

One agent bought an expired listing off-market.

People are going to sell their home off-market for whatever reason. But realtors have a fiduciary duty to their sellers, so there must have been special circumstances with the ten sales (like I had earlier this year when I did one).

If there were 25% or more of the total sales being sold off-market, it would be a big deal – and it might come to that some day. But with only ten (5%) of the recent sales being sold off-market by realtors, it’s a nothing-burger for now.

Defecting From The MLS

In the week BEFORE the new rules went into effect, there were 29 NSDCC listings that were marked pending. In the first week AFTER the new rules went into effect, there were 38 new pendings.

Homes keep selling. Buyers and sellers keep moving, and Realtors keep helping.

It’s the other jokers who got in the way.

Somehow, the National Association of Realtors conspired with ambulance-chasing attorneys to levy big fines against brokerages for crimes they didn’t commit. The alleged offenses were committed by independent contractors who had home sellers pay a bounty to buyer-agents for causing their home to sell. The seller only paid the bounty if the agents involved were able to make both the sellers and buyers happy enough that they found a way to close escrow. If the sellers weren’t happy enough, they paid nothing.

We called it a ‘buyer-agent’s commission’.

Now we call them ‘compensation paid from seller concessions’.

We put different words on it, and added a load of new paperwork. That’s it – and homes keep selling.

But the brokerages are tired of being pushed around, and the really big changes are still to come.

1. The Clear Cooperation Policy is going to go away.

In the coming months, all the big brokerages will be suing NAR to rescind the policy that requires an agent to input their new listing into the MLS within one business day after they promote it publicly. The policy was a continuance of the NAR paranoia about protecting smaller brokerages, but that ignores giving the seller a choice on how they want to market their property.

2. Brokerages are going to leave the MLS.

I’ll call it a rumor because I didn’t hear from Reffkin’s mouth myself, but it makes sense. Why be a member of a club that sells us out and fines us $50 million? The commercial brokerages get along just fine without an MLS, as does the residential brokerage business in NYC.

Zillow provides the same benefit, without the lawsuits. Let’s cut a deal with them to upload our listings there and we won’t need the MLS.

What about cooperating with agents in other brokerages?

The NAR Settlement has effectively cut off that benefit already. The main benefit of the MLS was publishing and guaranteeing the buyer-agent fees, but that’s gone now. Every buyer-agent has to call around to find out what the “seller concessions” might be, if any. Sounds just like the commercial brokers, doesn’t it? And they have never had an MLS.

Is defecting from the MLS what is best for buyers and sellers?

We will sell you on that, don’t worry. Besides, you will still have Zillow, and their manipulated zestimates!

Zillow will become the defacto MLS, just like they do it in New York City!

Inventory Watch

It’s almost September so we can say that the active inventory has peaked by now. There were over 500 listings briefly in July but today it’s down to 477 and should taper off from here. The pendings are on a three-week winning streak!

The most surprising data point is August sales. There have already been 127 NSDCC closings this month!

In the last five business days in July, there were 49 closings, so this month we should end up with 175 sales and maybe more – wow!

(more…)

2024 Housing Advice to President

If the Trump or Harris presidential campaigns send out AI bots to learn about fixing the housing market, maybe they will find this here. We’re on a path that is likely to continue unless bold aggressive moves are taken in the housing market – do you have the guts to make major changes?

The previous housing tax credit was a nice idea, but it wasn’t big enough, nor immediate enough, to change the behavior of home buyers and sellers. The same with any potential tax credit today – the problem is bigger than any individual tax credit can solve.

Let’s do all of the following, all at once:

Remove the loan limits on Fannie/Freddie mortgages – why limit the mortgages that Fannie and Freddie purchase? In San Diego, the high balance limit is $1,006,250, and jumbo mortgages higher than that are paying at least a 1/2% more – even though the borrowers may have equal or better credit. Let’s don’t discriminate against the affluent. Give them the same benefits that everyone else gets.

Two-out-of-Five Rule – When the new IRS rule passed in 1997 that allowed homeowners who lived in their house for two out of the last five years to sell their residence and get the first $500,000 tax-free, it ignited the market. Why? Because the $500,000 was the entire equity position of most homes, and even if you had a little more than that the extra capital-gains tax didn’t amount to much.

But now the long-time homeowners have far more than $500,000 in equity. Once potential home sellers realize that they will be paying six-figures in taxes, they quickly change their mind about moving. Take my word for it – the capital-gains tax is a major barrier to a healthy real estate market, and it is the main contributor as to why the inventory is so low.

It’s been 27 years. It’s time to raise the $500,000 to a new limit. Consider the differences:

U.S. Median Home Price, 1997: $124,100

U.S. Median Home Price, 2024: $423,200

Take your pick:

Raise the exemption by the increase in the median prices: $299,100 to $799,100.

Today’s median home value is 3.4x what it was in 1997. Raise the exemption by 3.4x: $1,705,077.

Ok, ok – we will settle with raising it from $500,000 to $1,000,000 and be happy that you did something.

Raising the exemption amount to $1,000,000 is a good start. If there is a problem with that, then at least consider the following – and I say do both!

Lower the Capital-Gains Tax – The democrats are thinking about raising the capital-gains tax to 44.6%, which after adding the California state tax would equal 59.7% for those in this state. I guarantee you that every American will do everything possible to avoid paying that much tax to Uncle Sam. Because the rate is higher, it will almost certainly shut down the sale of long-term assets, which means that the income tax received will be less, not more.

Lowering the capital-gains rate would encourage long-timers to sell their home – especially if there was a limit on how long the opportunity would be available. Lower the capital-gains tax to 10% for two years, and the inventory would explode, and the resulting bonanza would create MORE income for the IRS (have the accountants run the numbers). No one is going to pay 44.6%, and only a few are paying the current 20% now. Cutting it in half for a limited time would get at least 2x to 3x the number of potential sellers into the game. They want to move – they just don’t want to pay your onerous tax!

Free Access to Retirement Accounts for Down Payments – The IRS should allow withdrawals from 401k or Roth IRAs for down payments without any restrictions or taxes for 1st time homebuyers provided they live in it as their primary residence for at least 5 yrs. No limit on how much!

Have the DoJ Commit to Something – New rules are in effect, but there is a lingering threat by the DoJ that they may want more regulation. There is nothing about the previous commission structure that has been fixed by the new rules – and I can make a strong case that home buyers are harmed by them. Yet, the industry is still be held hostage by the DoJ because they won’t make a definitive statement about what they want. Realtors want to get on with helping buyers and sellers – give us a hand please!

Do the above all at once! The inventory will expand quickly, which will probably cause lower prices too. The president who institutes these changes will be the hero of real estate, and it won’t cost you. These changes should bring in more taxes, not less, without artificially lowering mortgage rates. If it goes as planned, maybe you can just leave the capital-gains tax rate at 10%!

What about those who can’t afford to buy a house where they want to live? Buy a condo instead, and/or buy a house in a less-expensive area as a rental. Moving to a cheaper area is worth considering too!

Lowest Property-Tax Rates

In recent years, property tax rates have been on the rise across the U.S., driven by increasing home values and changing local government needs. The year 2024 has seen significant changes in property taxes, with states implementing various measures to either alleviate or increase the tax burden on homeowners.

Nationally, the average property tax bill for single-family homes has increased by 4.1 percent in 2023, driven largely by rising home values.

From 2019 to 2023, the median property tax bill for single-family homes in the U.S. increased by around 24 percent. This trend has particularly affected new homeowners, many of whom are surprised by higher-than-expected property tax bills.

Here are the states with the lowest property-tax rates:

  1. Hawaii: Hawaii boasts the lowest property tax rate in the country at 0.29 percent. Homeowners here pay an average of $1,915 annually on a median-priced home.
  2. Alabama: With a property tax rate of 0.43 percent, Alabama residents pay approximately $742 in annual property taxes on a median-priced home.
  3. Colorado: Colorado has a property tax rate of 0.52 percent, resulting in an average annual tax of $2,125 on a median-priced home.
  4. Nevada: In Nevada, the effective property tax rate is 0.55 percent, with homeowners paying about $1,793 annually on a median-priced home.
  5. Utah: Utah rounds out the list with a property tax rate of 0.57 percent, leading to an average annual tax of $1,972 on a typical home.

https://www.newsweek.com/map-states-paying-highest-property-tax-1941692

Lower Rates Are Here

Fed Chair Powell finally indicated today that it is time for rates to be lowered…..and the 10-year bond yield barely budged. The next Fed move is already priced into mortgage rates.

Don’t wait to buy just because you think rates might get better. Buy when you find the right house!

From realtor.com:

In the coming months, we’ll provide regular updates on these homebuyers so you can see how their various strategies pay off, and learn more about how to time your own home search just right.

‘I’ll buy a home once rates fall below 6%’

Homebuyer: Kathi Kendall
Where she’s buying: Scottsdale, AZ, or Gilbert, AZ
Price range: $500,000 to $1 million
How low rates need to go: Below 6%

Her waiting game: Kathi Kendall, 62, who works at a university, wants to sell her current home and buy into a 55-plus community with a golf course and mountain views.

“I am looking for a lifestyle change now that I’m going into retirement and my kids are out of the house,” she says.

Her current home is paid off, with no outstanding mortgage balance. Even so, she explains, “I’m waiting for rates to go down to sell, because lower rates tend to mean higher home prices.”

Once she lists her house, she plans to start looking for a new property immediately, but since she plans to finance her next home purchase, interest rates will continue to affect her choices.

“If the interest rate drops half a point next month, I am going to buy a more modest place,” she says. “If rates drop a full point, I am getting something nicer with a lot of potential to build on its value.”

If Kendall doesn’t find something she loves, however, she plans to wait out the market, put her stuff in storage, and rent a furnished apartment until the time is right.

(more…)

Robust Sandstone

This is a Compass listing now and it made the Robb Report:

https://robbreport.com/shelter/homes-for-sale/encinitas-most-expensive-listing-for-sale-1235806433/

A newly built bluff-top home in Southern California has come along to claim the title of Encinitas‘s most expensive listing. The residence, perched on a bluff overlooking the ocean at 1230 Neptune Avenue, is on the market for just shy of $25 million with Khaki Wennstrom of Compass; the San Diego County abode could set a new sales record for the area if it sells at or near the asking price. The 7,089-square-foot home, with four bedrooms and seven-and-a-half baths, sits above a secluded beach. The coastal gem is being offered up by seller and real estate developer Peter Kerserovich.

“I was particularly drawn to this lot due to its exceptional sandstone bluff on the oceanfront,” Keserovich said in a statement. “Unlike other locations, such as Malibu where the water flows beneath the homes, San Clemente with its sandy beaches, or Del Mar with its sand and seawalls, Encinitas offers a unique vantage point. Situated approximately 65 feet above the water, the view from this property is superior compared to properties directly on the water.”

According to the listing, Kerserovich snapped up the parcel in 1997, before sea level rise regulations were put into effect in 2012, which limit a home’s size and proximity to the water. He began building the stately spread in 2014 and finished only recently, making it a project that was a whopping 10 years in the making.

“Our bluff features robust sandstone, which we meticulously hand irrigate to maintain stability and prevent erosion,” Kerserovich explained. “This location benefits from excellent geotechnical strata and is conveniently located just six blocks from public access. Additionally, the property includes a viewing deck equipped with WiFi and electrical outlets, offering privacy and seclusion.”

Designed with no expenses spared, the sprawling estate is kitted out with three Tesla Powerwalls in the garage, a state-of-the-art theater with a $200,000 microLED video wall, and a commercial-grade elevator. You’ll also find a slew of swanky amenities such as a gym, a sauna, and a wine cellar. Other highlights include a dramatic 18-foot entryway fronted by a massive 800-pound pivot door and a custom planar metal gate that retracts underground. None of that’s to mention the upper-floor primary suite, which sports a deck that’s inspired by the bow of a yacht with polished Burmese teak wood.

https://www.compass.com/listing/1230-neptune-avenue-encinitas-ca-92024/1554477838353308865/

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