Inventory Watch

As long as there are more pendings than actives, the market is doing just fine.

Oh well – that was last week’s thought.

As you can imagine, it’s the high-end market that is loaded with actives. This week an agent commented on what a delightful experience he had showing higher-end homes in Rancho Santa Fe, where listing agents were happy to book appointments at the buyers’ convenience, didn’t go crazy about having to submit financials just to see a home, and were paying regular commissions.  A few of the homes had been sitting around for months!

My guess is that most of the disappointed sellers will pack it up and wait until next year, rather than consider selling for today’s top dollar – which might be slightly less than they thought (but 10% to 30% more than it was 2-3 years ago).

How’s the action in the more reasonably-priced categories?

There are 100 active listings, and 191 pendings priced under $2,000,000 today.

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Curb Appeal

A home’s outward appearance plays a big role in whether potential buyers want to tour the interior.  Here are ways to give the home’s curb appeal an instant makeover:

1. Update the light fixtures

Updated light fixtures can change the way the front of a house looks but has an added benefit of making it safer when you use brighter bulbs too. Most outdoor lighting fixtures are much smaller than they should be. (That may had been intentional on the builder’s side; smaller fixtures are less expensive.)

Tip for choosing the right fixture: When you’re choosing a new light fixture, take cues from the home’s architecture, color, and your location. For the size, choose a fixture that’s one-third of the height of the door if you have only one light and one-quarter the height if you have a light on both sides of the door.

2. Upgrade windows and doors

Updating your windows and doors are a great way to improve the overall look of your home while also being energy-efficient. Consider adding window boxes, shutters, or even painting the trim for an added pop of color.

When upgrading the front door, choose a new door that matches the home’s style. Or you could follow the latest front door trends for 2021–glass elements, custom hardware, wood stains, or darker paint colors.

3. Paint

Painting your house is a huge task, but it can pack a huge punch! Just imagine the statement you’d make by ditching the boring beige, dulled white, or dated yellows. If you want to modernize your house, consider painting the house black or navy blue. Or, if you want to achieve that comfy-cottage look, try a light shade of gray or even a very pale shade of pink.

4. Add wood and/or stone elements

Adding wood or stone elements to the exterior can help give a home a “wow” factor. Even if you don’t want to put stone veneers on the exterior, you could add stone and wood elements in other ways, like by using stone to line the walkway, a wooden fence, or even stone or wooden lawn ornaments.

5. Hire a professional landscaper

There’s a huge difference between do-it-yourself landscaping and landscaping that’s completed by a professional. A professional landscaper can make your lawn a luscious green carpet that’ll make you want to kick off your shoes. They’ll know which native plants to choose to make a yard warm and inviting. They can also create water features, intricate flower beds, build retaining walls, and more.

6. Refinish walkways and the driveway

The walkways and driveway get a lot of use, and all that wear and tear will need an update over time. A professional landscaper or hardscaper also can upgrade your driveway and walkway by using stone, brick, or cement. But if you’re on a budget, a good power-washing may also give a curb appeal boost.

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/styled-staged-sold/6-tips-to-bring-your-curb-appeal-back-to-life-this-summer

Less Hot

As we roll into the post-frenzy era, we’ll see more national news about the changes – but all we know for sure is that it’s less hot than it was. Note the gray line above.

Fannie Mae said “Consumers are increasingly adamant that it’s a good time to sell, bad time to buy a home” as it released its June Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). The index, based on the company’s monthly National Housing Survey, shows a growing difference in the number of consumers who hold one or another of those opinions.

The HPSI was largely unchanged in June, dipping from 80.0 in May to 79.7, but questions of whether it is a good time to buy a home or to sell one produced notable results. Only 32 percent of survey respondents said it was a good time to buy, down from 35 percent in May and with an 8 point increase in those who thought it was not.

As a result, the net who were upbeat about buying fell 11 points to -32 percent, 66 points lower than in June 2020. Conversely, the net who said it was a good time to sell rose 20 points in June to 62 percent and was 69 points higher than at the same time last year.

“The HPSI remained flat this month, although its underlying buy and sell components continued to diverge, setting record positive and negative readings, respectively,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Consumers also continued to cite high home prices as the predominant reason for their ongoing and significant divergence in sentiment toward homebuying and home-selling conditions. While all surveyed segments have expressed greater negativity toward homebuying over the last few months, renters who say they are planning to buy a home in the next few years have demonstrated an even steeper decline in homebuying sentiment than homeowners. It’s likely that affordability concerns are more greatly affecting those who aspire to be first-time homeowners than other consumer segments who have already established homeownership.”

The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months gained one point to 48 percent while the percentage who expect a decline went from 17 percent to 21 percent. There was a 4 point increase in those who expect no change. The net who expected an increase was 27 percent, down 3 points for the month but 18 points higher than last June.

More than half of respondents expect mortgage rates to go up, resulting in a net of -52 percent who expect further declines. This is 8 points lower than May.

Job confidence increased slightly. The number of respondents who said they were concerned about losing their jobs dipped 1 point to 11 percent with a corresponding increase in the share who said they were not. The net who were not concerned rose 2 points to 77 percent.

Duncan continued: “Despite the pessimism in homebuying conditions, we expect demand for housing to persist at an elevated level through the rest of the year. Mortgage rates remain not too far from their historical lows, and consumers are expressing even greater confidence about their household income and job situation compared to this time last year, when the pandemic had shut down wide swaths of the economy.”

The HPSI is up 3.2 percent compared to June 2020.

The National Housing Survey from which the HPSI is constructed, is conducted monthly by telephone among 1,000 consumers, both homeowners and renters. In addition to the six questions that are the framework of the index, respondents are asked questions about the economy, personal finances, attitudes about getting a mortgage, and questions to track attitudinal shifts.

Link to Article

Rimini Del Mar

This just closed for $7,200,000 cash, which was $5,000 above its list price. It had been on the market for almost two years with two different agents and had a couple of refreshings:

Kayla & Mom

Donna’s tribute to Kayla (from our newsletter) will be the perfect way to kick off more contributions:

Tomorrow (July 9th) is a very special day. 30 years ago I became a Mom and I remember like it was yesterday. Filled with uncertainty – can I do this? Emotional – lots of hormones! But filled with lots of love and wonder as I took a look at our little girl Kayla Marie.

I remember fondly 3 year old Kayla who loved “Mommy and Me” Saturdays which were basically errands but to her it was an important outing just the two of us. Kayla has a way of making everything special. We always ended up sitting in the car feeding McDonalds French Fries to the seagulls in Carlsbad – the car would be filled with squeals because those seagulls can get aggressive. With Kayla you can always count on laughing until your stomach hurts.

Kayla found her voice through dance – she used to be very shy as a toddler. But anyone who knows her now knows Kayla can talk to anyone about anything – she makes friends easily. When she decided three years ago to move to New York City because she has always wanted to live there ever since Gossip Girl, I was so impressed by her courage to just go for it. I will never forget her saying to me “Mom we just got to walk on in like we own the place” when we were figuring out what to do at this event. I watched her walk into this room and own it – it was a memory.

But what I love the most about Kayla is her huge heart. Her 2nd Grade teacher Angie told me about how big her heart was and she was right. You just feel it. 30 years and she has never stopped living her life that way. She would do almost anything for anyone she cares about. She will give you everything she has. She is a loyal and fierce friend. She remembers everyone’s birthday – just ask her and she can tell you without looking it up on her phone. When you are with her and she’s focused (sometimes she isn’t), you feel special and just fortunate you are in her world. Of course she is not perfect; she drives me crazy at times and there are days I just need a break. It can be exhausting! But then she wouldn’t be Kayla with all her glory, fun and charm.

Happy Birthday sweet girl – I am so glad you chose me to be your mom! I love you lots and I am so proud of the woman you have become. Here’s to you – 30 and Fabulous! Enjoy your special day.

Love Mom

Happy Birthday Kayla!

Last night

Today is Kayla’s 30th birthday!

The stories started early last night, and the favorite was her memory of us going to Disneyland when she was a kid, and waiting in line for autographs from a boy band who was playing that week.

Before we got to the front of the line, they shut down the signings – and Kayla was crushed.

That night, she talked me into taking her back, just so she could get her autographs. Over Mom’s objections, we returned the next day and she got what she wanted!

She is equally determined to stay in Manhattan for the duration, and make it as a realtor.  She had two sales set up for closing next week, which would have been a new record for her.

But one of the sales just got delayed because the seller didn’t feel like moving until middle of August.  Because the sale was in a co-op building where the owners have to approve of the new buyer, the purchase contract (authored by attorneys) doesn’t specify a closing date due to the uncertainty of the approval process.

It’s part of Kayla’s job as buyer’s agent to submit a ‘board package’ so they can review the buyers and their financials, which she did well in advance and got it approved. But without a closing date set in advance like we do it in California, her buyers will have to wait another month before moving in, which was fine – but different!

Happy Birthday Kayla – it is my life’s joy to be your Daddy! I love you!

San Diego Home Pricing By Tier

https://journal.firsttuesday.us/san-diego-housing-indicators-2/29246/

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The last paragraph (above) might be the worst misread in the history of forecasting. I’m not sure why they are sticking with it.

Mortgage servicers have stated that they will modify the delinquent mortgages and extend them for another 40 years if necessary – making it a great time to be a deadbeat.

Wouldn’t any of their “plummeting sales volume”, be supportive for pricing?

If we had fewer sellers than we have today, then prices would go up.  Demand would have to evaporate for both sales volume and prices to go down.

As for their revisionist history about the 2008 recession, real estate market performed better in the higher-end areas during the last crisis.  We’ve had a 10-year trend of buyers purchasing their forever home since then, which will deter any wholesale dumping of properties.

So who is going to dump now?  Seniors?  Their heirs?  Nothing suggests that today.

Mitt Takes The Bit

Mitt Romney has sold his oceanfront La Jolla home for $23.5 million.  The Utah senator, and former Republican presidential candidate, completed the sale June 30, according to the San Diego County Recorder’s Office.

A small part of American history, the home became an example of what opponents in the 2012 presidential election said was an example of Romney being out of touch as he attempted to build an elevator on the property for his cars.  The “car elevator” house was often tied to Romney’s opposition to the bailout of the auto industry during the Great Recession. “The cars get the elevator, the workers get the shaft,” said former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm in one of the most often-quoted speeches from that time.

The sale price makes it the fifth-most expensive home sale in San Diego County history, and the third-most expensive for La Jolla. The biggest purchase in San Diego County history remains the 2007 sale of an oceanfront home in Del Mar for $48.2 million. The same house was later sold to Bill and Melinda Gates for $43 million in April 2020.

The grant deed said the Romney home was sold to William Rastetter, and his wife, Marisa. Rastetter has been a force in San Diego’s biotechnology and venture capital scene for more than three decades. He’s perhaps best known for his 20 years at IDEC Pharmaceuticals, where he served in leadership roles including chief executive, president and director. While there, he was the co-inventor of Rituxan, the first monoclonal antibody cancer treatment approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. IDEC merged with life sciences giant Biogen in 2003 for $6.8 billion.

Rastetter also served as board chairman of gene sequencing giant Illumina for 11 years, and has been a director at myriad other local life sciences firms. They include Neurocrine Biosciences, Regulus Therapeutics, Fate Therapeutics and Receptos, which was acquired by Celgene Corp. in 2015 for $7.2 billion.

Romney and his wife, Ann, purchased the property at 311 Dunemere Drive in 2008 for $12 million. The existing 3,009-square-foot home was torn down to build an 8,153-square-foot mansion with five bedrooms, six bathrooms and 65 feet of ocean frontage. It is one of roughly 30 beachfront homes in La Jolla.

The home was sold off-market, making a photo of the notorious “car elevator” hard to find. A 2020 assessment of the property, valued at $15.3 million, said the four-car garage was completed.

Room for parking in San Diego beach communities is rare. The most expensive La Jolla home sale, $24.7 million at 8466 El Paseo Grande in January, has a two-car garage. Romney’s campaign in 2012 said the lift was necessary to create a four-car garage because he has many children and grandchildren.

Romney revealed he had sold the home in late June in a virtual discussion about infrastructure sponsored by the Salt Lake Chamber, and was first revealed by The Salt Lake Tribune . At the time, his staff declined to discuss the details, including the price.

The San Diego Union-Tribune reported in 2015 that Romney had been considering selling the home near the end of its rebuild. The project was opposed by several neighbors and conservationists for what they said was an out-of-place design in La Jolla.

Romney was not the only well-known person to live at the property. The original home was owned by former San Diego Mayor Maureen O’Connor and her late husband, Bob Peterson, founder of Jack in the Box restaurants.

Link to UT Article

From 2008:

Mitt Romney recently paid $12 million to buy a home on the ocean in La Jolla, Calif., near San Diego. His son Matt lives in the same area.  The former Massachusetts governor, whose main residence is in Belmont, Mass., says he has no plans to become a California resident, and the purchase has nothing to do with a possible future presidential run.

“I’ve always wanted to have a place on the beach where you could hear the crashing waves,” Romney says. “And you know, I’m 61; I’m not going to live forever. I said, ‘Ann, I want to get a place on the beach. I don’t care what size it is, but I want a place on the beach.’ And this spot, it’s not a huge home, it’s 3,000 square feet, but it is right on the beach, and you open the windows and hear the waves crash. It’s heavenly.”

From 2012:

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