The last paragraph (above) might be the worst misread in the history of forecasting. I’m not sure why they are sticking with it.
Mortgage servicers have stated that they will modify the delinquent mortgages and extend them for another 40 years if necessary – making it a great time to be a deadbeat.
Wouldn’t any of their “plummeting sales volume”, be supportive for pricing?
If we had fewer sellers than we have today, then prices would go up. Demand would have to evaporate for both sales volume and prices to go down.
As for their revisionist history about the 2008 recession, real estate market performed better in the higher-end areas during the last crisis. We’ve had a 10-year trend of buyers purchasing their forever home since then, which will deter any wholesale dumping of properties.
So who is going to dump now? Seniors? Their heirs? Nothing suggests that today.
I think the wildcard will be the sustained rate of true inflation.
I’m imagining a lot of newly house-rich but cash-flow poor households in SD. If gas continues it’s march above $5/gal, plus the continued increase in food and energy maybe that would trigger some relocations?
Maybe I’m too optimistic. Depressing politicians have let the lack of new building go on for so long.
The problem with tracking across the Great Recession is that the rules changed. There was no economic reset. Market forces were not allowed to address market distortions. The banking system was to the tune of trillions of dollars backstopped. Now we are hearing about extended rent forgiveness and mortgage extensions. The can is yet again kicked down the road.
I am comfortable having purchased my forever home in 1995. For readers here, it is scary how much it resembles the Klinge Mansion except we do not have a minivan wash station.
Almost looks like the price tiers are a “Slinky™” compressing and collapsing. Why hasn’t anyone noticed this before? 😉