JC Is Lord Apartments

The developer paid $4,900,000 cash for this site in 2020, so he must have had some assurance from the Encinitas City Council/Planning Commission that he could build his 72-unit apartment house here.

It appears that expanding La Costa Avenue to four lanes will be required – though there aren’t plans or money to do so – yet the Encinitas City Council approved the development:

https://thecoastnews.com/encinitas-council-approves-new-plans-for-vulcan-avenue-project/

An excerpt:

The site of the project is 1967 N. Vulcan Avenue in the northernmost part of Leucadia near La Costa Avenue. The intersection of Vulcan and La Costa is a major concern to residents who oppose the development.

Wermers said the updated project plans now include changes to Vulcan Avenue that are meant to make the area safer for pedestrians and bicyclists.

“When we do this it also promotes vehicle safety,” Wermers said.

Wermers also made a commitment to pay his company’s fair share in whatever changes the city decides to make at the Vulcan and La Costa intersection.

“Whatever you guys decide, we want to pay our fair share,” Wermers added.

There was more support for the newly redesigned project, some pointing to the need for low-income housing in the area and the project will boast 12 units designated as low-income.

“We need more roofs over our heads. This housing project is the perfect one to bookend Vulcan Avenue and Leucadia,” resident Kevin Daniels said. “I can’t express this enough, this project is a perfect fit.”

https://thecoastnews.com/encinitas-council-approves-new-plans-for-vulcan-avenue-project/

IDX Rule Change

Though this is probably intended to be a direct shot at Zillow (who gets their feed from the IDX}, it will be the next step in the elimination of buyer-agents and encourage single agency.

CHINO HILLS, Calif.Aug. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ — On September 1st, 2021, California Regional MLS (CRMLS) will officially update its rules regarding Internet Data Exchange (IDX) websites to benefit agents and consumers on both sides of the residential real estate transaction.

IDX is the term the real estate industry uses for the portions of agent and broker websites devoted to searching MLS data. IDX sites using CRMLS data will soon give consumers a much clearer picture of agents’ relationship with the listings consumers find online.

The newly updated rule, number 12.16.5 in the CRMLS Rules and Regulations, will read as follows:

12.16.5 Listing Credit. All Listing Brokers grant permission for any Advertising Broker to display any listings submitted to the service by the Listing Broker only if the listing display or advertisement is clear so that a reasonable real estate consumer understands:

a) Who is the Listing Agent & Broker, 
b) Who is the Advertising Broker and
c) How to contact that Listing Agent or Broker.”

In describing the updated rule, CRMLS CEO Art Carter said, “It shouldn’t take a consumer more than a few seconds of looking at a listing to determine who the Listing Agent, Listing Broker, and Advertising Broker are.”

The CRMLS Rules Committee, composed of active real estate professional CRMLS users, devised the rule based on feedback from members of CRMLS’s participating Associations, Boards, and MLSs. The CRMLS Board of Directors, also working real estate professionals, approved the rule.

“CRMLS leadership has been discussing this subject, and this proposed solution, for years now,” said Carter. “Now that we have approval to update the rule, we’re beyond excited to help increase transparency and reduce friction for consumers, brokers, and agents.”

Link to press release

San Diego Case-Shiller Index, June

Remember when we were impressed that our Case-Shiller Index was going up 3% to 5% per year?

How do you like +27.2% YoY?

The month-over-month increase was the lowest since January, so it will interesting to see if pricing starts to plateau. With inventory so low, the pricing statistics could continue upward.

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
Jun
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
Jul
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%

Phoenix, San Diego, and Seattle reported the strongest price increases of the 20 cities. Prices in Phoenix increased 29.3% year-over-year. In San Diego they rose 27.1%, and in Seattle they were up 25.0%. All 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending June 2021 versus the year ending May 2021.

“The last several months have been extraordinary not only in the level of price gains, but in the consistency of gains across the country,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P DJI. “In June, all 20 cities rose, and all 20 gained more in the 12 months ended in June than they had gained in the 12 months ended in May.”

Prices in just about every city in the 20-city index, except for Chicago, are at all-time highs, he said, as are the national composition and the 10- and 20-city indices.

Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory group, said prices are rising at “a really out of control pace that is unsustainable and unhealthy.”

Home sales, however, have started to cool. Signed contracts on existing homes dropped in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices usually lag sales by about six months, so that could be a sign that price gains will stop accelerating as they have been for over a year.

“According to new Ally Home data, 45% of buyers say they have delayed purchasing a home due to market conditions, with 29% citing high home prices and 20% indicating homes selling too quickly as factors in this delay,” says Glenn Brunker, president of Ally Home.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/31/home-prices-surged-in-june-shattering-another-record-sp-case-shiller-says.html

Priced Out?

Our local home prices have been rapidly escalating over the last year.  First, we ran out of NSDCC houses for sale under $1,000,000, and today there are only 6 for sale priced under $1,100,000!

What are the alternatives for those buyers who want to spend less?

  1.  Buy a house further out.
  2.  Buy a condo/townhouse.
  3.  Get bigger gift from parents or grandparents.
  4.  Keep playing the lottery!

Here’s an example of going just a tad further out. This house is located on the border of Carlsbad, and while it did have ten offers and got bid up $80,000 over list, it closed for $830,000:

Inventory Watch

Of the NSDCC listings priced under $3,000,000, there are way more pendings than actives (230 vs. 146).

The Over-$3,000,000 category below has the most pendings (80) of all five price categories.

There are only 88 NSDCC houses for sale priced under $2,000,000.

The active listings have been dropping off quickly.  At this time last year, we had 677 active listings, and went on to have record-setting sales in September and October:

NSDCC Sales, September + October

2016: 539

2017: 517

2018: 447

2019: 466

2020: 743

Today we have 334 NSDCC active listings – half of what we had last year!

We will be hearing how sales are plummeting, but it’s only because we don’t have enough homes to sell!

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(more…)

Tenant Screening

For those who might be thinking about my idea of renting your home for a year so you can defer the capital-gains tax when you exchange it for other(s), know that California is a tenant-friendly state.  Just the denying of a tenant has potential consequences!  We can refer you to a local property manager to assist you.

Senate Bill 9

It is already legal to add an ADU and a junior ADU to a property zoned single-family.  Another bill has passed the California Senate that allows up to four units total  – and to be able to create two parcels, which means they could be sold separately – if the owner agrees to occupy the property for at least three years. Here’s a thorough article on the subject with examples:

https://calmatters.org/housing/2021/08/california-housing-crisis-zoning-bill/

An excerpt:

Senate Bill 9 would technically allow as many as two duplexes, two houses with attached units, or a combination — capped at four units — on single-family lots across California, without local approval.

The bill would allow more building where it’s now illegal, with the intent of reducing California’s fast-rising home prices and increasing access to homeownership through a greater variety of options, according to state Senate leader Toni Atkins, a Democrat from San Diego who introduced the bill and similar versions in the past.

The bill returns to the Senate for expected concurrence on the amendments before heading to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s desk.

A group calling itself Californians for Community Planning Initiative immediately filed a proposed constitutional amendment for the November 2022 ballot to reassert local control over zoning and land-use decisions in opposition to the bill.

But some analysts say the linchpin of the Senate’s housing package would probably have a negligible impact on the California housing crisis, at least in the short-term. As for the nightmare scenario described by opponents? There simply isn’t enough evidence to back that up, either.

That’s because a change to zoning means very little in reality, starting with the number of units that would actually get built, these analysts say.

https://calmatters.org/housing/2021/08/california-housing-crisis-zoning-bill/

Link directly to Senate Bill 9 text:

https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202120220SB9

Easier to Go Up Than Down On Price

This is a repeat of the 2br house featured on my tour a few weeks ago, with the resulting sales price.

The agent admitted they priced this 2br house low on purpose to attract a crowd, and it worked. The list price was $699,000, and it sold for $1,100,000 cash. Meanwhile, the two other listings around the corner priced at $1,149,000 and $1,200,000 are still unsold.

Sellers are resistant to price attractively, but look how well it works when you Get Good Help!

Sold for 57% above list!

https://www.compass.com/listing/2725-glasgow-drive-carlsbad-ca-92010/842339809239950025/

We Must Have More Frenzy

I said the other day that it will become hard to sell.  But wait – isn’t the demand overwhelming?  Yes, but it’s a price thing.

It will be harder to sell…..at your price.

Think of the pressure on sellers now.

It was bad enough when the seller’s ego had to endure the actual or perceived pressure from friends and family about getting your price. It was probably more subconscious, than conscious, and nobody really had to say a word.

Sellers just think that their family, friends, and neighbors are all watching, and they want to show them.  As a result, once a home goes on the open market, the seller’s ego wants all the money.

But then over the last year, sellers have been in this bonanza zone where bidding wars erupted out of nowhere and sellers got more money than they ever thought was possible. Way more than their ego needed, and sellers couldn’t wait to tell everyone how great it turned out.

But as the frenzy settles down, will sellers be able to cope without a tale to tell? Will their ego survive not having a bidding war?

In their mind, their opinion of their home’s value is built on top of the frenzy sales, plus a little extra.

Are sellers motivated enough to price sharply from the beginning, and/or lower their price early and often when it counts?

Probably not.

Hence, the frenzy environment has to continue, just so sales will happen.

Agents who have been in the business for 12 years or less only know a strong sellers’ market.  They will continue to offer half-baked listings with 60-80 photos, no video, and a crazy price – and expect buyers to pay it.  Throughout their history, buyers always have.

Sellers will now expect 5% over comps AND a bidding war to push it higher!  Anything to the contrary will not go over well, and sellers and listing agents will be slow to react.

First you’ll see listings not selling, and inventory starting to stack up.  Then sales won’t be as brisk as they have been over the last year.

Sales will suffer, before pricing does.

Keep an eye on sales.  They are your leading indicator.

This is how the frenzy will end, it’s just a matter of when.

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