by Jim the Realtor | Jan 6, 2025 | 2025, Contests |
Knowing the number of NSDCC listings in January will give us a feel for how hot the market might be for the rest of the year. If there is a big surge this month (more than +20% over last January’s count), then the market could get sluggish in a hurry. If there is only a modest increase – or maybe just the same as last year – then it’s going to be a fairly hot spring selling season.
There have been 26 new listings so far this month.
We will take guesses until Friday. Here are those received so far:
211 – Eddie89
213 – Shadash
246 – Anne M
267 – Surfrider
273 – Susie
280 – doughboy
303 – Tom
307 – Jun
317 – CB Mark
318 – Nick
328 – Majeed
337 – natalie
353 – Derek
355 – Skip
365 – Leo
421 – Giving Cat
Leave your guess – or revise your old guess – in the comment section!
In mid-February (to account for the late reporters), the guesser with the closest number will receive four tickets to a Padres game!
Need some evidence to make a smart guess? There is more research data on the last post:
https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2024/12/16/contest-for-padres-tickets/
To give you an idea where our seats are, I took the photo above at last year’s wild-card playoff game vs. the Braves. The guy with the buzz-cut hairdo sitting next to the dugout is the owner of the Braves. Those seats are reserved for the visiting team’s owners, so you might meet some glitterati when you go! Autographs are certainly in play too, depending on the willingness of the players. Go early!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 6, 2025 | 2025, Inventory
On December 9th, there were 401 active listings bertween La Jolla and Carlsbad.
Today there are 298 actives.
It would be natural to think that the reason the count dropped so much was that sellers were cancelling their listings in preparation for a new approach in 2025.
Get this – there have been 77 new pendings since December 9th – wow! In December, 2023 there were 78 NSDCC sales, and last month there were 133 sales – a 71% increase year-over-year!
I’m convinced there will be a surge of inventory this year, but if it were to stay under control, we might have a real frenzy on our hands. Especially if sellers can be reasonable about their list price.
Before the pandemic, there were always 500-1,000 active listings laying around. Will buyers ignore the recent ultra-low inventory counts and be happy to have more homes to consider – and not get intimidated by a bigger group of actives?
It looks like the count of NSDCC active listings will reach 400+ next month. Here is the recent history of when we reached 400 actives during the Covid years:
2024: Mid-May
2023: Early July
2022: Mid-June
2021: Never
As long as buyers don’t mind seeing the inventory count growing faster than it did in recent history, we could see frenzy-like conditions shortly.
Housekeeping: As of today, I have changed back to using the SDAR MLS. The north-county CRMLS insisted that realtors sign a very restrictive policy about how we use the MLS data, and I couldn’t go for it.
The difference on the blog is how the two companies classify house sales. The CRMLS for north county calls them SFRs, and a few agents load their attached homes or PUDs into the MLS and call them SFRs. The choice at SDAR is simple choice – either detached or attached. As a result, there are 11 fewer actives in SDAR today than there are in CRMLS.
One other minor thing. This blog can no longer be accessed while outside the United States (I don’t think). There is too much garbage going on behind the scenes and we are trying to clean it out to improve the speed. Let me know if you have any insights!
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by Jim the Realtor | Jan 5, 2025 | 2025, Contests, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge, Padres, The Future, Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling?, Why You Should List With Jim
Virtually everyone is reluctant to predict the future of the real estate market. Even most realtors will throw their hands up and declare, “Who knows?”.
But around here, one fact has been clear and it tells us what we need to know about the rest of the year. The number of NSDCC listings in January ends up being 8% to 9% of the total for the year:
NSDCC Listings and Sales Data (La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, RSF, Cardiff, Encinitas, and Carlsbad)
It means that by mid-February we will be able to predict how many listings there will be in 2025, and thus, give us the likely direction of the market for the rest of the year.
I’ve been saying for three months that there is going to be a surge of listings, and it could be 15% to 20% more than there were in 2024. We’ve been doing the contest for Padres tickets to help put a spotlight on the January listings, and it has never been more interesting to see how many will hit the market this year!
Tomorrow, I’ll do a summary of the guesses so far and give everyone the rest of the week to enter or revise their guess so come back Monday morning.
The chart above gives more data for the analytical folks to craft their guess.
My Thoughts:
The last frenzy before Covid was in 2013. Pricing was stuck in a fairly tight range for the previous five years, but listings dropped and sales took off in 2012 and pricing followed in 2013 with a little more inventory. The variables weren’t all the same as today, but you may want to apply a similar effect from the animal spirits to today’s market. Or maybe not?
With another 9% increase in the median sales price and cost-per-sf in 2024, it shows that there really hasn’t been any limits on pricing. Will 2025 be the year that it changes? If so, will it be caused by another surge in listings? Or is there enough money floating around that more listings will cause more sales at higher prices like it did in 2024? It could go either way.
What about the political climate? Pro-Trump supporters are elated and will gladly join the buyer pool. Anti-Trump people are fearing the worst, but like we saw during the pandemic, fear is a fantastic motivator and it causes people to want to hunker down…at any price.
I had more people attend my open house yesterday on La Costa Avenue than I’ve had at the previous seven OHs. Most were just getting started, and the basic need for housing will keep them looking around. Will they buy? We’ll see.
We round-tripped four of our 17 listings in 2024 – and three of those were since the commission debacle on August 17th. Successfully working with buyers had already been a major challenge for agents, and now it’s worse. The affluent buyers will probably always want professional help, but will there be many, if any agents left who are willing to devote months of effort just to have their commission rate dangled in front of the seller for their approval?
Will the market survive it all? Yes, because there isn’t anything that price won’t fix!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 4, 2025 | Where to Move |
For many workers, retirement represents an opportunity to reinvent themselves.
“A lot of people feel, well, my job is done, and this is my opportunity to have some fun,” says Dr. Gary Small, chair of psychiatry at Hackensack University Medical Center in Hackensack, New Jersey. He adds that a change of scenery often adds to that sense of fun.
While some retirees travel to explore new places, others want to make a permanent change. With no job tying them to a specific location, they may decide it’s time to move somewhere that offers better weather, more activities or a lower cost of living.
Before you make the move, consider these tips for finding the right place to retire:
- Reflect on your preferences.
- Understand your income and expenses.
- Talk to your family.
- Check the weather.
- Know how you’ll get around.
- Find out your health care options.
- Consider the political climate.
- Look into social activities.
- Calculate your taxes.
- Try renting first.
Read full article here:
https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/boomers/articles/tips-for-finding-a-great-place-to-retire
A book to consider:
https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442216181/The-Retirement-Maze-What-You-Should-Know-Before-and-After-You-Retire
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 3, 2025 | 2025, Year-End Review, Zillow
The Zillow guesses on local appreciation over the next 12 months have gotten more optimistic.
I added their previous guess from November in paratheses next to the zip codes, and the change in their typical home value over the last 12 months (in green). In 2024, the actual was far better than their guesses!
NW Carlsbad – 92008 (+0.2%)
Last 12 months: +5%
SE Carlsbad – 92009 (+2.4%)
Last 12 months: +6%
NE Carlsbad – 92010 (+0.3%)
Last 12 months: +6%
SW Carlsbad – 92011 (+0.2%)
Last 12 months: +5%
Carmel Valley – 92130 (+0.5%)
Last 12 months: +9%
Del Mar – 92014 (+1.9%)
Last 12 months: +6%
Encinitas – 92024 (+0.2%)
Last 12 months: +4%
La Jolla – 92037 (+1.8%)
Last 12 months: +3%
Rancho Santa Fe – 92067 (+0.4%)
Last 12 months: +6%
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 2, 2025 | 2025, Why You Should List With Jim |
Is having more homes for sale a big deal? The local market has survived everything else, though they were all at lower price points.
If price adjustments are needed, what can we expect?
I’ve mentioned how my recent listing in La Costa Oaks got caught up in price war. A month before the election, there were 10-12 active listings nearby in the low-to-mid $2,000,000s.
I wasn’t willing to lower my price. Why? Because the price wasn’t the problem – it was that the house and yard had defects, and when that happens I’d rather fix those first, and then talk about price.
I got lucky and we received a low offer of $2,350,000. When it came time to entertain our counter of $2,450,000, the buyers stuck to their original $2,350,000 and said no more. We countered again at $2,400,000, and they came around and accepted.
The closest other active listing had hit the market at $2,525,000 a couple of weeks before us – but they lowered their price to $2,455,000 a few days before we came on. And they kept lowering!
This is how it turned out for them:
This is what we can expect going forward.
There is a natural range of around 10% to 15% between the creampuffs and fixers. When there are several choices, buyers may try to pick up a creampuff for a fixer price. Some might get lucky.
We have NEVER seen a market like this, where the sellers have gained so much equity so quickly – about +60% in the last five years. The sellers of Sitio Lima paid $1,059,500 when new in 2005, and they had not hit the housing ATM to refinance a big cash-out (loan was under $300k). I don’t know what made them so motivated, and it doesn’t matter. They had a load of equity, and if it was time to sell, then it’s time to sell – bring any and all offers!
Expect the sales prices of similar tract house to be in a ~10% range in 2025.
Get Good Help!
by Jim the Realtor | Jan 1, 2025 | 2025, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge
In 2024, we had more drama than usual. The Big Three:
- Hotly-contested election.
- Commission debacle.
- Mortgage rates that were supposed to come down, but didn’t.
Any one of those could have derailed the real estate market, but instead we survived just fine:
NSDCC Annual Counts, 2023 vs. 2024
With the drastic drop in inventory since covid, it seemed to make sense that the market could handle an extra 15% to 20% homes for sale.
Indeed – there were 14% more homes for sale, and sales AND pricing increased 9%!
The number of active listings at the start of 2024 was about the same as it was to begin 2023. However, we’re starting 2025 with 16% more actives already, and I expect an early surge. We could easily have 400+ NSDCC homes for sale by the end of January.
Can our local market handle 15% to 20% MORE homes for sale on top of what we had in 2024?
We’re going to find out!
Happy New Year!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 31, 2024 | 2024, About Kayla, About Natalie, About the author |
Just before Natalie danced the last show of the sold-out Karol G World Tour at the 78,000-seat Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain
The Restaurante Botin, the oldest restaurant in the world (since 1725).
A test to see if my new iphone flips the text on a selfie – it does!
Half-day bike ride
Entrance to the San Diego Zoo!
2024 Final Score: 621 blog posts and 47 sales closed – thank you!
We are immenesly grateful for you being here, and allowing us to assist you with your real estate needs!
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 31, 2024 | Same-House Sales
The local market has been so hot since the election that the second-half losing streak may end prematurely, instead of declining through the rest of 2024.
I already said +5% for next year’s NSDCC appreciation, and all of it to be in the first quarter.
San Diego Case-Shiller Index
“New York once again reigns supreme as the fastest-growing housing market with annual returns over double the national average,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “Two markets have dominated the top ranks with New York leading all markets the past six months and San Diego the six months prior. New York is the only market sitting at all-time highs and one of just three markets with gains on the month. Accounting for seasonal adjustments shows a broader rally across the country.
“Our National Index hit its 17th consecutive all-time high, and only two markets – Tampa and Cleveland – fell during the past month,” Luke continued. “The annual returns continue to post positive inflation-adjusted returns but are falling well short of the annualized gains experienced this decade. Markets in Florida and Arizona are rising, but not keeping up with inflation, and are well off the over 10% gains annually from 2020 to present. This has allowed other markets to catch up.
“With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement,” Luke continued. “Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.”
by Jim the Realtor | Dec 30, 2024 | 2025, Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market, Market Surge |
We’re going to start the new year with about 17% more houses for sale than we did in 2024. They will be joined by other failed listings from the past, and the inventory will most likely be rising faster than normal.
The first inventory count of 2024 was 255 homes for sale on January 2nd, and that number was 22% higher by the first week of February.
If the 2025 inventory grows about the same or a little faster, it means there will be 375-400 homes for sale by the end of February. It will be VERY EARLY in the season to have that many homes for sale already! We didn’t get to 400 until mid-May of this year!
Personally, though we are expecting a fast start in 2025, we aren’t going to publish our first home for sale until January 9th. It will begin a six-week stretch where we will be rolling out a new listing every Thursday!
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My Reasons Why NSDCC Inventory Will Surge in 2025:
1. Been trending that way – there has been 15% more NSDCC homes for sale this year than in 2023.
2. More listings have been cancelling this year than in Q423. They’ll be back!
3. Prop 19 was fun while it lasted – more of those who inherited a home will want to cash out.
4. Credit card debt is over $1 trillion for the first time. More current homeowners will lighten the load by paying off all their bills and downsize to cheaper home (probably out of state).
5. The affluent fleeing the country – if you have nothing tying you down here, then there are other choices.
6. The 5th anniversary of Covid is a few months away. Those who put off moving can go ahead now!
7. California politics drives people away. Gav’s $25 million to fight Trump? Might be the last straw for some.
8. I don’t have the statistics but more baby boomers should be shuffling off this mortal coil.
9. We’re all older – if you’re going to move, do it while you still can, physically!
10. Covid buyers with life changes – Flush with equity, they can sell and buy a better house.
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