Carlsbad Condo Debate

The UT has published two articles about the these goofy-looking condos in North Carlsbad that supporters are saying that they need to be saved, in spite of the new owners purchasing each individual condo separately and abiding by city zoning and planning:

Excerpt from the first UT article:

Modern architecture fans hope to save a small, but distinctive condominium building known for its whimsical appearance near Carlsbad’s Magee Park.

The 40-year-old building, sometimes called the Victor Condo, on Garfield Street is one of the first examples of a postmodern style often called “Blendo” created by San Diego architects Ted Smith and Kathleen McCormick.

“Victor Condo is clearly of cultural significance and a fine example of a pivotal historic time in Carlsbad’s build-environment growth from a small coastal community to a vibrant city worthy of vibrant architecture,” said Peter Jensen, a writer and editor at Sunset Magazine and San Diego Home/Garden magazine for 40 years.

As “affordable yet stylishly significant (not to mention excitingly livable) dwellings” the buildings are an example of late 20th century innovation in an area that too often relies on cookie-cutter architecture,” Jensen said in comments on a petition to save the structure.

“We believe the building qualifies as a design on the vanguard of an important architectural movement,” states the petition posted by San Diego architect Patrick Cordelle, who works with Smith and McCormick.

(more…)

The Future of Real Estate Sales

One more thought about the extinction of buyer-agents.

There are many variables that point to the demise of the two-agent system that has prevailed for 100+ years. The coming changes should roll out over the next 12 months too – how exciting!

What’s already happened:

  • Buyer-agents can no longer tell buyers that they work for free, when paid by the seller.
  • Buyer-agent commissions are advertised on the search portals.

What’s coming:

  • The DOJ/FTC directs realtors to ‘de-couple’ commissions, and buyers pay their agents, instead of sellers.
  • Buyers will think they won’t have to pay a commission by going direct to the listing agents.
  • CoStar develops and advertises the Broker Public Portal, whose stated goal is to advertise listings and send all buyer inquiries back to the listing agent, instead of a third-party.
  • Realtors will sell their listings directly to those inquiring buyers.

The traditional buyer-agents get cut out of the loop, which then also means the MLS isn’t needed either.  Then today’s search portals break down because they aren’t getting the listing feeds from the 600+ MLS companies around the country.

Because it is dual agency when buyers go direct to the listing agent, there will be a semblance of buyer representation, so commission rates won’t change much – even though buyers will mostly be on their own.  Whether the consumers recognize the benefits of having their own representation won’t matter.  They just want to buy a house, so the companies that spend the most money on advertising with win their business.

Any disrupter could win the game if they spend enough money. Zillow was spending more than $100 million per year in advertising to become #1, and it worked.

In the link below, Joe says that CoStar is going to spend a couple of hundred million dollars on consumer advertising to compete with Zillow. You can imagine their advertising:

Want to know about a property? Click here to contact the listing agent directly!

Joe lays it all out here, starting at the 17-minute mark:

https://www.rismedia.com/2022/01/03/be-ready-when-music-stops-how-focus-today-but-prep-for-tomorrow/

Throw in an auction platform somewhere along the way, and homes sales will be transformed forever.

San Diego Brokerage Rankings, 2021

I screwed up the national rankings the other day. Donna sent me that clip but it was the 2020 list, not from last year. Anyway, who cares about the national – real estate is local!

In just 3+ years, Compass has become the dominant real estate brokerage in San Diego County, and it’s not close. Even if you add the two CBs together, our volume last year was almost double any other brokerage.

How will this affect consumers in the future?

As buyer-agents are phased out over the next 1-2 years (and it could happen sooner), there won’t be a need for the MLS. Inputting our listings onto Zillow will become voluntary, and only used if the homes can’t be sold in-house.

It will be just like the commercial side of real estate, where all the good deals are kept in-house, and only when they don’t sell, are the listings inputted onto LoopNet.

Fannie Mae Forecast

This is how Plateau City looks on paper when the YoY change nears zero in 2024-25 (above). From Fannie Mae – which, like most forecasts, is guessing that price increases will slow to about half of what they were last year:

When it comes to housing, the report says, “The past year’s demand surge was driven by a combination of factors, low mortgage rates, down payments supported by stimulus checks and other savings, and a pandemic-driven reshuffling of preferences and move timing on the part of many households, all of which are expected to wane. Furthermore, the recent rapid house price appreciation and rising mortgage rates will lead to growing affordability constraints, dragging on home sales, but also likely limiting further price appreciation to a more sustainable pace.”

The economists don’t expect a soft year for home sales, existing sales will slow by only 3.2 percent this year, to the second fastest annual pace since 2006. But they do expect extremely limited inventories to produce “hypercompetitive bidding wars” in which potential homebuyers are priced out of the market.

Rapid price growth will eclipse wage gains and waning stimulus checks and built-up savings, will make it increasingly difficult for many potential buyers. Mortgage-backed security issuance data continues to show the average back-end debt-to-income (DTI) ratios of borrowers increasing, indicating growing affordability pressures. There appears to be ample prospective homebuyers currently, but their volume will likely lessen as the year unfolds.

Changes to the sales forecast are minimal. Total home sales are expected to fall 1.2 percent, an improvement from last month’s -1.4 percent forecast. The 2023 slowdown has been revised from -3.8 percent to -3.6 percent.

Worsening affordability is still expected to dampen home price growth, but Fannie Mae expects prices growth to slow to 7.6 percent from the probable 17.3 percent in 2021. This is still considerably higher than the average pace of 5.4 from 2012 to 2019. Price growth will slow further to 3.3 percent in 2023. The current estimates are higher than the December forecasts of 7.4 and 2.9 percent.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/01202022-fannie-mae-forecast

The same article included this graph that reflects the who is leaving California – the do-it-yourself movers.

 

Boomers and Their Kids

One of the primary questions? How are the kids going to be able to buy a home?

If prices just stay at this level, it will be near impossible for local kids to save the down payment and afford the monthly nut when starter homes are selling for around $1,200,000.

Plus, there is the incentive now for seniors to hang onto the family homestead and then let one of the kids live there so they can keep the old property-tax basis.  For kids who never left, they will live in the same home their whole life!

But if you have more than one kid, then what? It used to mean selling the family homestead and dividing up the loot, but today’s heirs probably own their current home too. Tomorrow’s heirs? Not so sure, which means more homes will stay in the family when the parents die, and fewer homes will be coming to market.

The tight inventory could get worse.

Because the majority of homes being purchased today are ‘forever’ homes and will be owner-occupied for generations, it narrows down the list of probable sellers to those who have owned their home for longer than 12 years, AND are selling for one of the Big Three reasons (death, divorce, and job transfer).

And the baby boomers are going to decide the outcome.

Baby boomers are:

  • Still relatively young, and living longer than ever.
  • Aging-in-Place, rather than pay the imposing tax penalty for selling before you die.
  • Hoping a kid will inherit the house and live in it.

There may be a boomer-liquidation surge in the future, but it will be at least 5-10 years before it could happen on a larger scale. In the meantime, seniors will live comfortably in their old family homesteads, and probably be joined by as many kids as can fit.

The seniors who do move will be from these categories:

  1. Those buying a one-story house.
  2. Those buying a multi-gen house so kids can help with senior care.
  3. Those moving to assisted living.
  4. Those who will rent, at least for now.

Some may have to move out-of-town, but at least their pockets will be full of cash.

Once they take care of themselves, boomers are going to focus on their kids – many of whom are still hanging around the house!

It means the entry-level markets will be full of younger buyers backed by affluent parents and grandparents – and they are loaded.  There is also the multi-gen buyers who are looking for larger homes that will suit the whole family – or they will buy the one-story home for the folks, and then leave the old house for the kids.

There really should be an extra premium available for those home types when they sell, given the demand.  If you are going to sell one of those (entry-level, multi-gen, or one-story), then list your home with me, and I’ll make sure you get all you deserve!

Offer #6

We received the five offers and completed the highest-and-best round with all.

On the way over to the sellers’ house to discuss the results with them in person, Offer #6 arrives by email – and it’s all-cash with an escalation clause, which makes it a real contender. We have a horse race now!

Most agents would jump on the offer with the escalation clause, and call it a day.

But I had already discussed with agent of Offer #1 that escalation clauses aren’t fair to the losers  – because every buyer at this price point would gladly pay an extra $5,000 to $10,000 extra to win.

With the sellers’ permission, I tempted #1 to raise their offer again – for the third time – after telling them about the cash offer.  After a brief deliberation, they declined.

The cash offer was completing a 1031 exchange, and their relinquished property had already closed escrow – which means that they were in their 45-day identification period.  Buyers in that position are feeling the pressure, and they have to buy something. If they don’t identify up to three properties within the 45 days that they might purchase over the next four months (they have six months from their escrow close date), then they will be forced pay capital-gains tax on that previous rental property.

Time is of the essence!

It is crucial for me to ‘read the room’.  I’ve exhausted the other buyers #1-5, and the sellers are ready to sell their house. How much farther can I push it with the cash offer?

Rather than go back and forth with my auction format, we decided to just counter $50,000 higher, at $2,150,000, to the cash offer, instead of using the escalation clause.  I called it in to their agent and told him that if that was acceptable, we’d send him a signed counter right away.

But then 90 minutes went by with no response.

We have an acceptable offer on the table with owner-occupants (those are more likely to close) and a good agent.  The sellers had baked cookies and swapped stories with us for over an hour as we analyzed the different angles, and it was time to make the deal. During that time, the sellers got more comfortable with foregoing the extra $50,000 and opt for the sale that’s more likely to close.

I told the agent of the cash-offer that we were taking the other deal.

It happens regularly that sales are won and lost in hours, if not minutes. No lollygagging!

Get Good Help!

Me telling the story on video:


Squatter Thwarted

Haven’t seen one of these in a while. From nbc7:

“It’s alright,” Jeffrey Goddard said to a group of neighbors on the street as officers escorted him to a patrol car in handcuffs. “I’ll be back.”

Days earlier, neighbors said Goddard told them he deserves to live in the Clairemont house where he’d spent nearly every night for more than a week.

Thing is, he didn’t buy the house and he isn’t renting it either.

Goddard told officers he saw it on the news last month, after carbon monoxide poisoning sent the 84-year-old homeowner to the hospital. The homeowner’s adult daughter was found inside the home dead.

Soon after, neighbors tell NBC 7 they watched Goddard change the locks, replace the door and even receive Amazon packages.

(more…)

Pin It on Pinterest