Home Buyers Not Deterred

When people are looking for the perfect ‘forever’ home that will last them for a lifetime, any additional cost isn’t going to phase them – or at least it won’t affect the affluent folks.  Most are making it up elsewhere when they sell their previous home or rental properties, inherit big money or receive a gift, and/or sell their businesses/stocks or other assets and just want a trophy property.

If they weren’t bothered by home prices rising 60% to 80% over the last two years, a measly 2% increase in the mortgage rate isn’t going to stop them.

https://eyeonhousing.org/2022/04/high-home-prices-are-leading-more-buyers-to-give-up-home-search/

San Diego Case Shiller Index, Feb

The February month-over-month increase was the highest ever, but it feels like ancient history:

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
Jun
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
Jul
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%
Jan ’22
383.92
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.45
+4.6%
+29.2%

“U.S. home prices continued to advance at a very rapid pace in February,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index recorded a gain of 19.8% for the 12 months ended February 2022; the 10- and 20-City Composites rose 18.6% and 20.2%, respectively. All three composites reflect an acceleration of price growth relative to January’s level.

“The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly and may not support extraordinary home price growth for much longer. The post-COVID resumption of general economic activity has stoked inflation, and the Federal Reserve has begun to increase interest rates in response. We may soon begin to see the impact of increasing mortgage rates on home prices.”

(The San Diego seasonally-adjusted index was 404.45)

Inventory Watch

An interesting phenomenon that has been occurring more lately is the delay in offers being submitted.

I’ve heard agents say it’s because people are being smarter about waiting until closer to the offer deadline so the listing agents have less time to shop them around, and that buyers are being more deliberate in checking their finances.

However, the more time that passes between the initial open house and the submission of offers, the less likely buyers will pay wildly over the list price….or even offer at all.

The pool of buyers who are willing to pay $500,000-$1,000,000 over list price has to be diminishing, and will it be long before the only buyers left are those who want to pay a fair price?

Typically there are a flurry of closings in the last week of the month. If there isn’t a corresponding uptick in new pendings this week, we could see the graph (at the top) look remarkably different next Monday!

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(more…)

Mega-Auctions

The network insinuates that auctions are giving houses away, but the initial prices seem ridiculous:

Dr. Alex Khadavi, a celebrity skin doctor in Los Angeles, was hoping for a quick sale and big payday when he finally completed a 21,000-square-foot mansion that took seven years and tens of millions of dollars to develop.

But a little over a year after he listed it for sale — with a price tag featuring a string of lucky 7s at $87,777,777 — the doctor’s dreams of cashing out are being crushed by a mountain of debt, unpaid contractor bills, bankruptcy court proceedings and trouble with the law.

Now he’s running low on luck, money and time.

Khadavi, who filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection about two weeks after putting the home on the market, hasn’t lost his sense of humor, though.

“The home is sandwiched between billionaires, and I’m the poorest guy on the block,” he told CNBC with a laugh.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/19/mega-mansions-suffer-massive-price-cuts-at-real-estate-auctions.html

Seller & Buyer Survey

https://homelightblog.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/HomeLight-Buyer-Seller-Insights-2022.pdf

This looks pretty normal:

In an era where 50% or more of the homes for sale receive multiple offers, yet half or more of the sellers don’t ask the buyers to improve their offer – they just grab one instead? Money is being left on the table coast-to-coast:

We make sure you don’t end up on this list – Get Good Help!

Read the full survey here:

https://homelightblog.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/HomeLight-Buyer-Seller-Insights-2022.pdf

From their last page:

Speaking of gifts from buyers, we asked our sellers if buyers used any unusual tactics to try to win a bidding war, and the results were shocking. When flattery and (possibly) bribery didn’t work, some buyers turned to more nefarious tactics.

Among the troubling experiences sellers reported, the highlights include:

  • An offer of two fully paid, all-inclusive tickets to a resort in Hawaii, presented over dinner
  • Offering a $10,000 signing bonuses if the offer was accepted by midnight
  • Buyers offering to buy toys and gifts for the seller’s children
  • Three weeks at a time share in the Bahamas
  • A buyer lying to the seller and saying they knew the seller’s grandmother
  • A buyer texting a seller each morning to ask if they had received any better offers
  • Buyers promising one price to sellers but writing their offers at a significantly lower price
  • Telling the seller a home was on ancestral lands
  • Heartfelt personal letters in hopes of tugging on a seller’s heart strings
  • An offer to purchase the home with Bitcoin
  • Attempted to give the seller exotic animals and a car to accept their offer

Just some of the tactics sellers reported buyers using to have their offer chosen include:

  • A buyer lying to the seller and saying they knew the seller’s grandmother
  • A buyer texting a seller each morning to ask if they had received any better offers
  • Buyers promising one price to sellers but writing their offers at a significantly lower price
  • Telling the seller a home was on ancestral lands

Earth Day – Climate Havens

If you’re worried about wildfires and earthquakes…..you can always move to Detroit!

Millions of Americans are living in communities with precarious climate conditions, in houses that feel overpriced. There is a solution for many of these people, though:

Move to one of the so-called climate havens.

Climate havens or climate destinations are situated in places that avoid the worst effects of natural disasters and have the infrastructure to support a larger population. Many of these legacy cities are located in the Northeast.

Jesse Keenan, associate professor of real estate at Tulane University, named the following cities as possible climate havens:

  • Asheville, North Carolina
  • Buffalo, New York
  • Burlington, Vermont
  • Detroit, Michigan
  • Duluth, Minnesota
  • Madison, Wisconsin
  • Milwaukee, Wisconsin
  • Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
  • Rochester, New York

Anna Marandi, who served as the program manager of climate resilience and sustainability at the National League of Cities, added two other places to the safe haven list: Ann Arbor, Michigan and perhaps surprisingly, Orlando, Florida.

Orlando makes the cut, Marandi said, because the city has introduced measures to decarbonize. While the natural environment, such as being a noncoastal city, is an advantage, cities can “earn” the designation by working to provide benefits like affordable housing and being committed to economic sustainability.

“I see climate migration as an opportunity for these cities to avoid the mistakes of urban sprawl,” Marandi said. “They often have a vibrant, walkable downtown that might just need a little bit of revitalization.”

Keenan also stressed that climate haven cities need to help their own residents, which in turn will attract more climate migrants.

“This isn’t we’re going to build a community for tomorrow,” he said. “We’re going to build a community for today. And that’s going to be the foundation for the building of a community for tomorrow.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/21/climate-change-encourages-homeowners-to-reconsider-legacy-cities.html

Latest La Costa Oaks

After seeing two homes go off for more than $4,000,000, buying this for $3,100,000 probably doesn’t seem so bad. But the house next door closed for $2,450,000, and the highest sale on this street was $2,220,000 twelve months earlier and was a newer Davidson home up around the bend:

Carmel Valley Starter

Our listing in Carmel Valley has closed escrow!

13010 Brixton Pl., Carmel Valley 92130

3 br/2.5 ba, 1,804sf

YB: 1989

LP = $1,750,000

SP = $1,875,000

Location is everything! Enjoy this end-of-culdesac gem that is just steps from TPHS (so close you won’t need to buy your kid a car!) and an easy stroll to Del Mar Highlands & One Paseo! Totally renovated with newer kitchen & baths, stainless appliances including 6-burner stove, Pella Pro-line designer wood windows, new paint & carpet, new light fixtures & LEDs, and new landscaping!

A link to our before and after photos to see our prep work:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2022/03/31/the-krg-minor-tune-up/

 

The consumers’ fascination with the zestimates has never been greater! With home prices detached from comps, the zestimate is the only other measuring stick for both buyers or sellers – right or wrong!

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