The last coffee bet began in 2006 when it was obvious to me and others that the market bubble was popping, so let’s examine the data back to those years to see if we can learn anything that might be helpful when trying to predict the future:
NSDCC Listings and Sales between January 1st and August 31st:
Year
Number of Listings
Number of Sales
Median Sales Price
2006
4,596
1,822
$997,375
2007
4,046
1,883
$1,000,000
2008
3,865
1,413
$915,500
2009
3,741
1,346
$803,503
2010
4,065
1,684
$826,407
2011
3,988
1,780
$828,745
2012
3,423
2,086
$825,000
2013
3,747
2,355
$925,000
2014
3,640
1,978
$1,020,000
2015
3,797
2,169
$1,086,000
2016
3,926
2,084
$1,157,465
2017
3,549
2,125
$1,225,000
2018
3,578
1,957
$1,320,000
2019
3,597
1,927
$1,310,000
2020
3,254
1,853
$1,410,000
2021
2,861
2,265
$1,870,000
2022
2,190
1,451
$2,400,000
The most recent non-pandemic years, 2018 and 2019, were eerily identical, which suggests that the same market conditions can prevail for years in spite of rates (which varied from 4.03% in January, 2018 to 4.87% eleven months later, and then back down to 3.72% in December 2019).
The most stunning data point is how the number of listings has plummeted this year, even though sellers could have sold for all-time high prices. Record pricing used to motivate more people to sell, not fewer!
Agents sitting on unsold properties will ‘refresh’ their listings every month or two, and those days are back so we’ll probably have at least the same amount of 2023 listings just due to the extra 10% to 20% of refreshers. But the inventory is going to be bleak no matter what happens, so that alone will drive the market in 2023 and beyond. Here is a visual:
The thing I remember most from the last downturn was how the market turned earlier than expected. There was a blog post from April, 2009 entitled Coffee Bet 2 where I thought prices would go down another 25%, when that month ended up being the actual trough for the SD Case-Shiller Index.
Even with the buyers who over-analyze and stay on the sidelines for 2-5 years, there will be others – mostly those out-of-towners who don’t have a house here yet – who will buy when they find the right house.
Sales will likely be dreadfully low, and I think NSDCC pricing will be FLAT in 2023.
During the selling seasons, there will be some spectacular sales of those family estates with big yards and pool on culdesacs…..and prices trend higher! But then as the inventory diminishes over the rest of the year, the pricing either goes flat or we give it all back in the second half of the year – like what happened in 2018 and 2019…and what will probably happen in 2022 too:
Here are NSDCC markers for this year:
January 2022:
Median List Price: $2,219,888
Median Sales price: $2,250,000
August 2022:
Median List Price: $2,200,000
Median Sales Price: $2,150,000
If it weren’t for those crazy three months before rates went up last spring, the 2022 data would probably have already looked fairly flat anyway, so it’s really not risky for me to guess that it will continue. There will be crazy-high sales, and stunningly-low sales too, but in the end, we’ll be living in Plateau City.
In the first coffee bet of 2006, I used the Davidson Starboard tract as a marker, and coincidentally I have a listing there now. The neighborhood is arguably the best in the area, and La Costa Oaks South homes in general, are among the newest and most desirable homes in SE Carlsbad.
Let’s look up at the end of 2023 and see how the LCOS median sales price compares – even with it being inflated by early-2022 sales. These closings are from the last six months:
Even if the median sales price deteriorates somewhat in the next 15 months, I predict that my sale will be the lowest Plan 2 sale in the interim, and there won’t be any LCOS sales below $2,000,000 between now and the end of 2023 (the $1.875M sale was FSBO).
The ultra-low number of listings in 2023 will throttle any big price changes in either direction.
My NSDCC pricing guess for 2022 was +/- 5%, and is close, and next year will probably be similar too.
I’m sticking with ZERO change in pricing next year – which isn’t a sexy number but will reflect the general malaise and discomfort among the participants we hope for lower rates but know they won’t change enough to make much difference anyway.
Even though the August sales count is up to 159, it looks like September might be the first month with fewer than 100 sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad (population 300,000+). There are only 144 pendings!
Back in 2009 when nobody wanted to sell their house, there were 5,039 listings (the low for the era).
This year, we’ve only had 2,205 listings so far – we’ll be lucky to make it to 3,000 this year, which will be a new record low. Last year, there were 3,632 NSDCC listings (the current record).
The wildcard on pricing is that every potential seller has sufficient equity to dump on price if needed.
Why a seller would give it away when there are so many other alternatives (renting, reverse mortgages, hard-money loans, etc.) is beyond me. Even flipper companies like Opendoor (who owns 197 properties in SD County today), have to pay somewhat close to retail to get business.
But there are cases where sellers can, and do, dump on price – like here, where I had the competing listing and we withdrew and rented, rather than give it away:
Those sellers paid $875,000 in 2016, so they still left town with a smile on their face – but you can guess that the neighbors didn’t appreciate it. Especially the two who paid over $2,000,000 just months earlier.
It would take a few desperate sellers dumping at the same time to call it a trend.
But if there were enough of those closings sprinkled throughout the county, the median sales price (a terrible measuring device) could fall 10% or more pretty easily.
When looking at 2023 and beyond, you can probably expect that there won’t be many realtors like me that advise sellers to hold out on price. It doesn’t change their paycheck much if they dump and run, and there won’t be anybody in the press or social media sticking up for sellers either.
There is a chance it could get ugly – just because sellers have so much equity that it feels like free money, and they will still walk with hundreds of thousands of dollars, even if they decide to give it away.
Trying to predict what will happen to our local real estate market in the short-term?
No surprise that mortgage rates will play a big role in how it plays out, and they have been extremely volatile lately. But it’s just not about affordability, and ‘losing’ buyers. They can always recalibrate by either looking at cheaper homes or cough up more down payment if they really need to buy a home. But will they?
The invisible impact on the market will be how buyers expect higher mortgage rates to convince sellers to lower their price. But sellers aren’t very empathetic, and most will go with their retail list price based on the highest comps ever recorded, and hope that cute young couple with 2.2 kids falls in love and just pays what it takes to win it.
If rates miraculously drop back down to 5% and under, then buyers won’t have a good reason to expect better pricing, and they will be tempted to give in and just pay what it takes. But if rates are 6% and higher, they have a rallying cry and the Big Standoff will be on.
How much lower will prices need to be to satisfy those buyers? They probably won’t have a number in mind, and the answer will just be ‘less’. It will likely end up being a binary decision – either rates are low enough that we’ll just go ahead and pay these prices, or we won’t.
When the bigger challenge is to find the right house, it will be most interesting to see if the superior homes – the real creampuffs – sit for long, or if they blow out to cash buyers or to those who care more about getting the right house, than the right mortgage rate.
If there is a steady trend of creampuffs selling, it will help to get more buyers to engage.
After mortgage rates went over 6% again yesterday, the doomers will be burying the real estate market over the next few months. You can see why – rates have been dropping for a generation; for them to now go up from 3% to 6% in a few months is unprecedented for today’s buyers:
But having the majority of buyers paying over the list price (especially those paying $100,000+ over list) was unprecedented too. Those who haven’t bought a house yet must be suffering from real estate whiplash today!
Where is it going to go now?
Is there any sort of precedent to reflect on? When this blog was in its infancy, I made the now-infamous Grand Poobah of Predictions on September 16, 2006 on how I thought the market was going to unravel. It was contested by many, and Rob Dawg issued his challenge which evolved into the Coffee Bet.
If you’d like to revisit history, scroll down to the bottom here and read the comments too:
Yesterday, I told Rob that I will post my latest thoughts on Monday, and asked him to do the same – or at least critique what I had to say. It will give me a couple of days to think of all the variables – which there are several now that have never been in play before!
Want proof that Jay Powell has tamed the housing frenzy, and reversed the trend of buyers having to pay well over the list price to win a house? Here are examples of the list and sold prices of August home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad – note the relationship to the days-on-market (DOML):
So far, we’ve had 154 August closings reported, which means we should get up to 175 or so by the time every sale is inputted.
I’ll do the final count later, but of the 154 sales, there were 23% that sold over their list price. But it is much more reasonable and sustainable if buyers only have to pay $25,000 to $50,000 over the list price for the creampuffs, rather than $400,000 to $800,000!
Sellers shouldn’t be bummed either, because their huge gains are priced in now.
At the end of the video, I promised some pricing data and of course the MLS is down tonight so if you came to see list prices vs. sales prices, check back tomorrow.
If this was just a video of Carlos and his drummer wife Cindy it would be incredible. The supporting cast really clinches it.
P.S. If you are in a Mexican restaurant and the Mariachi band wants to play a song, request Oye Como Va – it’s a guaranteed hit because everyone knows it:
Yesterday’s Case-Shiller Index for San Diego was 425.26, which is 11% higher than it was in January.
But check how the trend increased between January and now.
Prices rose as fast as ever in early 2021 (yellow above). If they would have mellowed out along my red line, then we would have experienced slightly-increasing prices for the last year. But noooo! Instead, the early-2022 buyers – egged on by their realtors – insisted upon paying ridiculous amounts over the list price to win a house. Hopefully that practice is done.
The only reason the June reading was 11% higher than January was because it came down a bit. The San Diego Case-Shiller Index rose 11.2% between January and April, 2022, which was an annual clip of 33.6% – which nobody would have believed was sustainable after rising 43% since the pandemic started.
If the SD Case-Shiller just goes back to where it started in January, it will be a 10% drop from today, which will sound like a disaster. But the annual appreciation will be zero, which is not only reasonable, but sustainable for a while.
Is anyone going to mind if we start 2023 where we started 2022, price-wise? If mortgage rates can stay in the 5s, and hopefully the low-5s, we should be fine!
Everyone is throwing around the ‘deceleration’ word like it means something. But the only number that matters is the month-over-month change, which went DOWN for the first time since October 2019 – but it only went down that one month. The local index dropped 2.8% between July, 2018 and January, 2019, and we’ll probably see more than that this year.
Homes still won’t be affordable for most, and there won’t be many for sale as the Big Standoff of 2023 sets up.
San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes
Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
Jun
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
Jul
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%
Dec
297.52
+0.6%
+13.0%
Jan ’21
301.72
+1.4%
+14.3%
Feb
310.62
+2.9%
+17.1%
Mar
320.81
+3.3%
+19.1%
Apr
331.47
+3.3%
+21.6%
May
341.05
+2.9%
+24.7%
Jun
349.78
+2.6%
+27.2%
Jul
355.33
+1.6%
+27.8%
Aug
357.11
+0.5%
+26.2%
Sep
359.88
+0.8%
+24.9%
Oct
363.80
+1.1%
+24.2%
Nov
367.62
+1.1%
+24.3%
Dec
374.48
+1.8%
+25.9%
Jan ’22
383.92
+2.5%
+27.2%
Feb
401.45
+4.6%
+29.2%
Mar
416.64
+3.8%
+29.9%
Apr
426.08
+2.3%
+28.5%
May
428.32
+0.5%
+25.6%
Jun
425.26
-0.7%
+21.6%
“It’s important to bear in mind that deceleration and decline are two entirely different things, and that prices are still rising at a robust clip,” wrote Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices in a release. “June’s growth rates for all three composites are at or above the 95th percentile of historical experience. For the first six months of 2022, in fact, the National Composite is up 10.6%.”
In the last 35 years, only four complete years have witnessed increases that large, he added.
Another report last week showed home prices declined 0.77% from June to July. It was the first monthly fall in nearly three years, according to Black Knight, a mortgage software, data and analytics firm.
While the drop may seem small, it is the largest single-month decline in prices since January 2011. It is also the second-worst July performance dating back to 1991, behind the 0.9% decline in July 2010, during the Great Recession.
Home prices are softening due to rising mortgage rates, making an already expensive housing market even more so. Sales of both new and existing homes have been dropping for several months, leading some economists to call a housing recession.
“We’ve noted previously that mortgage financing has become more expensive as the Federal Reserve ratchets up interest rates, a process that continued as our June data were gathered. As the macroeconomic environment continues to be challenging, home prices may well continue to decelerate,” said Lazzara.
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.
Bjorn Isachsen
July 10, 2024
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The Good
The Klinge Realty Group operates like a finely tuned machine, with a very personal touch. We contacted them on a Sunday and they were talking to us about our family and our needs on our living room couch the following day. They carefully listened to us and worked with us to identify the best and quickest path to listing within 2 weeks to take advantage of the low inventory conditions in our South Carlsbad neighborhood. They knew our tract specifically and had many previous sales there over the years - they came prepared with a thorough analysis of comparative sales and recommended a pricing strategy that they felt confident would yield offers the first weekend on the market.
The Great
Over the next two weeks Donna coordinated a range of vendors who she knew from experience could get the preparation to list work we needed done on time and with high quality. Our light tune-up involved excellent experiences with their stagers, landscapers, contractors, electricians, and plumbers. Throughout this period Donna's daily communication was clear, concise, and responsive. Any time we had questions Donna picked up the phone or texted immediately - but almost always, she answered our questions before we even knew we had them.
The Outstanding
We had a tricky situation with a shared fence that could have delayed our escrow. Donna used superb mediation skills to negotiate the terms of replacement and was personally on site with the fence contractor to make sure everything went smoothly. The fence looks great and escrow closed on time.
The Truly Exceptional
Our house came on the market on a Wednesday and between then and Monday morning Jim was personally at all three open houses. He was in constant communication explaining potential buyer reaction and strength. As he predicted offers began to come in on Saturday and each one was incrementally higher than the last. At the end we had 5 offers, 4 of which were over list, and the final accepted offer was $100,000 over list. In addition to being over list it included rent back terms that met our needs.
The Recommendation
For all of these reasons we would strongly recommend The Klinge Team to anyone wanting to sell in North County Coastal San Diego. I had been reading Jim's bubbleinfo.com blog for 15 years and knew when the time came to sell that he would be our first call. Jim Klinge is not your standard realtor. He is keenly aware of market conditions and sales strategies. And, works his tail off - though not as hard as Donna . At this point he's gone from realtor to friend and I plan to have him over to grill and chill at our new place to talk real estate, but also just about life and raising kids in San Diego. He's more interested in relationships than his sales numbers - and that's why his sales numbers are so high. We have already recommended the Klinge's to some close friends and another successful sale is on deck right around the corner...
Chris Shea
June 21, 2024
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We recently had the pleasure of working with Jim and Donna from Klinge Realty Group to sell our house, and we couldn't be more satisfied with the experience. From the initial meeting, they listened attentively to our needs and provided invaluable guidance on specific improvements to get our home market ready.
Their responsiveness throughout the entire process was truly impressive. Anytime we had questions or concerns, they were quick to address them, ensuring we felt comfortable and informed every step of the way. What stood out the most was their team and extensive network of tradespeople, which made addressing any necessary repairs or updates seamless and stress-free.
Thanks to their expertise and dedication, our house sold quickly and at a great price. We highly recommend Jim and Donna to anyone looking to buy or sell a home. They are a fantastic team who truly care about their clients and deliver exceptional results.
