$18,450,000 Cash

Here’s the 7,509sf home on La Jolla Farms that just sold for $18,450,000 cash, which was a whopping 6% below the list price. The market time was 12 days.

You can tell in this photo that the backyard was tired, but the rest of the one-story house looked fine. Even though there had not been any similar sales on this street since Alicia Keys paid $20,800,000 for an architectural gem back in 2019, it shows that when the affluent sees a house they like, they pay the man:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/9438-la-jolla-farms-road-la-jolla-ca-92037/1126953178641491121

Here’s the all-time history above $15,000,000 on the street:

Downtown Carlsbad Penthouse

Sent to me by bulk email, and probably sent to all agents. The HOA fee is $913/month:

Explore the ultimate in luxury living with Grand Jefferson’s spectacular penthouse residence, where you can enjoy all the amenities of a sprawling estate home with none of the maintenance. Showcasing a total of 7,400 sq. ft. of private indoor/outdoor, smart home equipped living space, 792 Grand Ave is truly in a league of its own.

An entertainer’s paradise, tranquil retreat or both, this jaw-dropping 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home embodies luxury at every turn. Perched upon Grand Jefferson’s top floor, the 3,418 sq. ft. single-story residence is crowned by a 2,000 sq. ft. rooftop terrace featuring dazzling 360-degree views of the ocean, mountains, and city lights. Totaling more than 4,000 sq. ft., the unparalleled outdoor space also includes a California room with fireplace, plus a raised terrace perfect for an alfresco kitchen and dining space just off the main living area.

Penthouse residents will further appreciate a private lobby with secure access system, a direct-access elevator, and a convenient separate storage unit perfect for bikes, surfboards and more. Secure, gated parking garage offers 2 spaces plus a 3rd car lift installed. Don’t miss this unique, one-of-a-kind opportunity catering to an ultimate luxury experience.

792 Grand Ave is listed at $5,400,000.

NSDCC Median $/SF

Instead of using the median sales price as a gauge, let’s look at the history of the median $/sf to help bring the size of the homes into the equation.

Thoughts:

I remember 2018 and 2019 being fairly flat and a bit of a struggle.  Rates had been in the 3% to 4% range during the 2015-2017 period, and once they got back into the mid-to-high 4s in the summer of 2018, pricing hit the skids.  Luckily, rates dropped under 4% in late-2019 which caused us to be optimistic about the selling season of 2020 – and you can see that pricing got off to a good start.

The Pandemic Stall caused a blip in April, 2020, but we recovered and charged into 2021.  You could say that local pricing took off like a rocket, rising 25% in five months:

Jan 2021: $559/sf

Jun 2021: $697/sf

Today we are under where 2022 started, and it could get worse. However, the median for the 38 sales closed this month is an impressive $823/sf, which is 4% higher than last month.

But we have a long way to go!

Speaking of a long way to go, Rob Dawg wanted to stir it up, like most Dodger fans.  We have been subject to endless taunting since making the playoffs, including Charlie Steiner suggesting that the Padres rivalry with the Dodgers would be like a nail having a rivalry with a hammer.

Just you wait!

Bob Melvin has engineered the greatest rope-a-dope since Muhammad Ali. Sacrificing the first game last night with Clevinger vs. Urias was ingenious, because Kershaw is washed up and due for a dud – and Darvish has been lights out.

The Padres win tonight, and then come home to the raucous crowd who hasn’t seen a playoff game in 16 years, and Petco Park will be rocking for Snellzilla. Then we got No-No-Joe for Saturday’s game and the Dodgers will have to bring back Urias early on three days rest and he won’t have enough.

This is the last chance to get on the Padres bandwagon!

Horrifying Home-Decor Trends

Every year, there are new and evolving home design fads that should “scare” you to death. Last year, there were moss-covered accent walls (gasp!), acrylic furniture (shriek!) and Tuscan-style kitchens (yelp!). This year, it’s the “cloffice”—a pandemic-era closet-turned-office—and many others.

With Halloween around the corner, Styled Staged & Sold presents its annual countdown of the top 10 home trends of 2022 that are haunting our nightmares:

https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/styled-staged-sold/10-horrifying-home-design-trends-2022-edition

NSDCC September Sales

The number of NSDCC detached-home sales in September is up to 133 today, which is pretty good.  There are only 138 pendings currently, but 34 sales have already closed in October so there is a decent chance that we’ll have 100+ sales this month too!

The drastically-lower YoY sales will give participants the idea that the market conditions keep deteriorating, but to me, it is a sign that sellers are holding out on price.

If we can just average 100 sales per month in the fourth quarter, I’d consider it a successful end to 2022!

It’s natural for most buyers to want to see what happens in springtime, and I think we can all predict what’s coming.  The 2023 home sellers aren’t going to believe that the old comps don’t matter any more – and they will price their home within 5% of the peak pricing.

Inventory Watch

We are at the point where the inventory should continue its gradual descent and wind up around 235 active listings at the end of the year (if the percentage drop goes the same way it did last year).

Though the Padres will be having an unusual impact on the local market…..hopefully for the next month!

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Responding to Offers

In another installment of what listing agents can do to improve their chances, let’s mention one of the habits that were made worse by the frenzy – responding to an offer.

Over the last two years, it became part of the business that buyers had to wait around for days while waiting for the listing agent to decide the winner.  There weren’t many other homes for sale, and every new listing was priced higher than the last so buyers would tolerate a long delay.

Not any more.

Today, listing agents who are lucky enough to receive an offer should jump on it and respond the same day – and if possible, within an hour or two. Buyer’s remorse has never set in so fast, and in this environment, it is more than just an emotional bummer, it is a deal-killer.

Specifically, what can listing agents do better?

  1. Answer your phone – it might be an agent with an offer!
  2. Prepare the sellers to respond quickly, and be standing by, ready to sign.
  3. Have a full set of seller disclosures and reports ready to send.
  4. Don’t counter over stupid stuff.
  5. Consider not countering at all, and just sign the offer.

Buyers are looking for ANY reason NOT to buy, and stay on the fence longer where it is comfortable. And you want to take a chance on countering over which title or escrow company?  Or try to get the sellers a couple of months of free rent – heck, at least offer to pay for it!

The journey over the next couple of years will be a long arduous slog through the bad habits developed by realtors during the frenzy.  It made agents lazier than ever, and gave them the impression that once they had a listing, it meant they were a real estate god and could boss people around.

It will be a hard habit to break.

JB On The Bubble

Housing Bubble Set to Pop

By John Burns

In 2013, fresh off the biggest housing downturn in their lifetimes, 73 housing industry executives compiled the Top 10 Signs of a Housing Market Bubble at our Summit Conference in Laguna Beach, CA. Assessing the criteria that we set almost a decade ago (10 quantitative and 10 qualitative), we have found that 16 of the 20 housing bubble signs are now flashing red.

In last month’s client-exclusive housing outlook webinar, we called out some signs we are seeing:

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