Inventory Watch

by | Nov 14, 2022 | Inventory, Jim's Take on the Market | 1 comment

In the graph above, the active inventory hasn’t been decreasing like I thought it would be, given that Thanksgiving is a week and a half away. You can’t say that nothing is selling, because there have been 50 closings between La Jolla and Carlsbad in November so far, which should keep the final monthly-sales count around the 100 as expected.

So I checked the Actives counts during pre-holiday season from the last few years, and in particular, the drop in active listings between the first week of October and mid-November:

The percentage of decline between the first week of October and mid-November:

2018: -3%

2019: -11%

2020: -12%

2021: -18%

2022:  -0-

Comparing to last year, the hottest market in history with the lowest rates ever, will look wildly negative.  In 2021, the market was still cooking in the fourth quarter, so the drop in actives had as much to do with everything selling, as it did with sellers packing it in for the holidays.

But compare today’s inventory to previous years.  The pandemic count in 2020 was 547 actives in mid-November, and we’re 28% lower than that today!

The number of actives may not be dropping this year, and it means only one thing.

The sellers who are on the open market today have to be motivated to sell now, otherwise they would have given up and waited for the 2023 Spring Selling Season.  Future sellers will probably be similarly motivated, because it should be obvious to everyone that selling for your aspirational price is much more difficult than it used to be – and the casual sellers will decide to wait for a ‘better market’.

The $0 – $1,500,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
9
$832/sf
35
36
Jan 10
9
$766/sf
28
29
Jan 17
13
$773/sf
26
27
Jan 24
9
$818/sf
15
29
Jan 31
14
$752/sf
14
31
Feb 7
13
$774/sf
12
32
Feb 14
11
$826/sf
12
35
Feb 21
7
$889/sf
17
38
Feb 28
12
$888/sf
17
33
Mar 7
9
$1,017/sf
21
33
Mar 14
14
$847/sf
18
31
Mar 21
8
$912/sf
26
36
Mar 28
10
$914/sf
25
28
Apr 4
10
$782/sf
33
34
Apr 11
19
$733/sf
21
36
Apr 18
16
$795/sf
28
34
Apr 25
18
$891/sf
27
30
May 2
22
$822/sf
23
31
May 9
24
$887/sf
17
46
May 16
25
$783/sf
22
25
May 23
29
$782/sf
23
29
May 30
30
$782/sf
24
28
Jun 6
34
$763/sf
25
28
Jun 13
33
$802/sf
29
29
Jun 20
48
$774/sf
28
22
Jun 27
43
$755/sf
32
22
Jul 4
49
$757/sf
33
23
Jul 11
56
$757/sf
35
22
Jul 18
51
$741/sf
38
24
Jul 25
53
$755/sf
38
22
Aug 1
46
$736/sf
36
29
Aug 8
43
$746/sf
41
32
Aug 15
37
$775/sf
37
34
Aug 22
36
$766/sf
41
33
Aug 29
34
$750/sf
40
39
Sep 5
28
$717/sf
50
31
Sep 12
31
$736/sf
52
29
Sep 19
32
$753/sf
36
27
Sep 26
31
$726/sf
39
28
Oct 3
34
$733/sf
34
22
Oct 10
30
$729/sf
36
27
Oct 17
36
$725/sf
36
23
Oct 24
39
$723/sf
39
24
Oct 31
39
$732/sf
38
24
Nov 7
40
$782/sf
39
25
Nov 14
48
$742/sf
41
20

The $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
8
$842/sf
52
36
Jan 10
13
$751/sf
28
29
Jan 17
16
$736/sf
33
27
Jan 24
16
$801/sf
17
27
Jan 31
15
$696/sf
14
34
Feb 7
15
$765/sf
17
34
Feb 14
10
$726/sf
19
38
Feb 21
19
$715/sf
15
39
Feb 28
9
$660/sf
12
46
Mar 7
16
$789/sf
15
46
Mar 14
17
$837/sf
8
44
Mar 21
18
$867/sf
11
43
Mar 28
14
$838/sf
15
48
Apr 4
18
$762/sf
25
42
Apr 11
23
$774/sf
15
39
Apr 18
22
$792/sf
17
41
Apr 25
18
$810/sf
20
41
May 2
27
$809/sf
17
37
May 9
33
$837/sf
17
46
May 16
39
$793/sf
19
44
May 23
43
$793/sf
22
44
May 30
36
$843/sf
23
36
Jun 6
43
$817/sf
23
41
Jun 13
49
$845/sf
24
42
Jun 20
57
$817/sf
24
41
Jun 27
75
$807/sf
24
35
Jul 4
70
$827/sf
27
33
Jul 11
71
$812/sf
30
38
Jul 18
74
$793/sf
32
35
Jul 25
83
$787/sf
34
29
Aug 1
81
$780/sf
35
31
Aug 8
76
$796/sf
40
30
Aug 15
80
$789/sf
42
38
Aug 22
78
$801/sf
46
38
Aug 29
81
$811/sf
51
40
Sep 5
82
$795/sf
50
31
Sep 12
78
$796/sf
53
29
Sep 19
73
$818/sf
47
34
Sep 26
75
$795/sf
45
33
Oct 3
75
$826/sf
42
31
Oct 10
69
$853/sf
45
27
Oct 17
73
$841/sf
46
22
Oct 24
72
$857/sf
45
27
Oct 31
74
$837/sf
51
37
Nov 7
69
$840/sf
51
37
Nov 14
65
$832/sf
58
36

The $2,000,000 – $3,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
18
$1,080/sf
127
43
Jan 10
23
$1,038/sf
85
37
Jan 17
26
$1,044/sf
80
41
Jan 24
28
$1,015/sf
37
42
Jan 31
22
$949/sf
38
47
Feb 7
26
$919/sf
29
42
Feb 14
22
$997/sf
37
49
Feb 21
21
$966/sf
33
54
Feb 28
26
$905/sf
32
57
Mar 7
29
$922/sf
28
57
Mar 14
20
$852/sf
26
58
Mar 21
17
$928/sf
26
60
Mar 28
34
$927/sf
12
65
Apr 4
32
$927/sf
20
69
Apr 11
44
$910/sf
17
62
Apr 18
48
$997/sf
19
66
Apr 25
42
$1,092/sf
18
73
May 2
54
$995/sf
19
70
May 9
61
$910/sf
20
73
May 16
64
$977/sf
22
69
May 23
82
$953/sf
25
59
May 30
78
$951/sf
27
56
Jun 6
94
$963/sf
27
58
Jun 13
98
$961/sf
28
70
Jun 20
91
$935/sf
32
59
Jun 27
111
$894/sf
30
60
Jul 4
112
$910/sf
33
60
Jul 11
122
$912/sf
34
56
Jul 18
103
$893/sf
39
68
Jul 25
108
$883/sf
40
63
Aug 1
110
$887/sf
41
58
Aug 8
124
$941/sf
39
50
Aug 15
114
$945/sf
45
51
Aug 22
123
$948/sf
42
46
Aug 29
125
$938/sf
46
45
Sep 5
116
$948/sf
48
38
Sep 12
110
$908/sf
49
43
Sep 19
108
$928/sf
50
46
Sep 26
106
$926/sf
51
45
Oct 3
103
$941/sf
50
46
Oct 10
109
$987/sf
50
42
Oct 17
103
$969/sf
50
45
Oct 24
100
$953/sf
52
51
Oct 31
100
$961/sf
53
50
Nov 7
97
$960/sf
54
47
Nov 14
97
$970/sf
51
38

The $3,000,000 – $4,000,000 Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
19
$1,230/sf
90
26
Jan 10
22
$1,210/sf
76
25
Jan 17
19
$1,207/sf
86
23
Jan 24
17
$1,129/sf
92
24
Jan 31
21
$1,172/sf
70
22
Feb 7
19
$1,169/sf
67
25
Feb 14
19
$1,234/sf
65
28
Feb 21
21
$1,279/sf
69
28
Feb 28
22
$1,214/sf
64
25
Mar 7
27
$1,295/sf
60
24
Mar 14
27
$1,201/sf
65
27
Mar 21
23
$1,282/sf
69
31
Mar 28
25
$1,253/sf
67
30
Apr 4
30
$1,199/sf
61
27
Apr 11
32
$1,174/sf
62
31
Apr 18
33
$1,216/sf
68
31
Apr 25
33
$1,219/sf
63
33
May 2
37
$1,164/sf
50
36
May 9
33
$1,132/sf
57
32
May 16
40
$1,119/sf
53
32
May 23
40
$1,135/sf
57
27
May 30
40
$1,178/sf
61
28
Jun 6
43
$1,224/sf
56
28
Jun 13
48
$1,184/sf
52
28
Jun 20
52
$1,117/sf
53
26
Jun 27
60
$1,120/sf
51
19
Jul 4
55
$1,127/sf
58
23
Jul 11
68
$1,140/sf
47
26
Jul 18
66
$1,206/sf
52
25
Jul 25
65
$1,200/sf
54
26
Aug 1
59
$1,191/sf
60
26
Aug 8
58
$1,209/sf
63
22
Aug 15
59
$1,166/sf
62
21
Aug 22
57
$1,163/sf
60
28
Aug 29
53
$1,168/sf
64
31
Sep 5
48
$1,157/sf
67
25
Sep 12
50
$1,215/sf
67
27
Sep 19
46
$1,196/sf
74
26
Sep 26
42
$1,200/sf
82
20
Oct 3
42
$1,216/sf
78
20
Oct 10
38
$1,154/sf
62
18
Oct 17
34
$1,171/sf
73
20
Oct 24
41
$1,148/sf
69
14
Oct 31
36
$1,110/sf
79
14
Nov 7
37
$1,100/sf
76
9
Nov 14
39
$1,114/sf
77
6

The $4,000,000+ Market:

Date
NSDCC Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Avg. DOM
# of Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
100
$1,884/sf
128
30
Jan 10
105
$1,864/sf
113
29
Jan 17
109
$1,763/sf
110
34
Jan 24
105
$2,130/sf
114
42
Jan 31
102
$2,114/sf
118
53
Feb 7
109
$2,000/sf
108
50
Feb 14
108
$2,005/sf
109
47
Feb 21
113
$2,008/sf
103
43
Feb 28
111
$1,991/sf
101
47
Mar 7
115
$1,904/sf
91
39
Mar 14
121
$1,893/sf
95
43
Mar 21
116
$1,905/sf
97
44
Mar 28
104
$1,966/sf
97
59
Apr 4
103
$1,929/sf
97
56
Apr 11
106
$1,906/sf
97
55
Apr 18
108
$1,874/sf
100
51
Apr 25
116
$1,829/sf
97
38
May 2
117
$1,781/sf
95
32
May 9
116
$1,831/sf
96
36
May 16
124
$1,854/sf
91
39
May 23
125
$1,855/sf
92
36
May 30
129
$1,706/sf
93
39
Jun 6
131
$1,740/sf
89
33
Jun 13
132
$1,793/sf
86
38
Jun 20
148
$1,772/sf
84
35
Jun 27
153
$1,779/sf
87
29
Jul 4
155
$1,777/sf
82
25
Jul 11
164
$1,759/sf
85
26
Jul 18
170
$1,740/sf
86
26
Jul 25
178
$1,701/sf
84
27
Aug 1
180
$1,696/sf
85
28
Aug 8
173
$1,715/sf
91
24
Aug 15
168
$1,746/sf
89
32
Aug 22
160
$1,718/sf
92
29
Aug 29
165
$1,732/sf
93
28
Sep 5
162
$1,745/sf
95
26
Sep 12
152
$1,715/sf
96
29
Sep 19
155
$1,727/sf
97
28
Sep 26
157
$1,728/sf
97
27
Oct 3
150
$1,701/sf
96
27
Oct 10
153
$1,711/sf
103
29
Oct 17
152
$1,675/sf
101
25
Oct 24
156
$1,697/sf
102
24
Oct 31
157
$1,701/sf
107
22
Nov 7
156
$1,682/sf
109
22
Nov 14
154
$1,680/sf
113
22

NSDCC Weekly New Listings and New Pendings

Week
New Listings
New Pendings
Total Actives
Total Pendings
Jan 3, 2022
17
14
152
164
Jan 10
39
18
167
142
Jan 17
34
29
179
145
Jan 24
41
40
173
157
Jan 31
43
40
173
182
Feb 7
43
38
179
179
Feb 14
44
49
168
193
Feb 21
51
38
180
197
Feb 28
39
39
179
205
Mar 7
54
37
191
195
Mar 14
48
51
195
196
Mar 21
39
46
178
207
Mar 28
53
50
185
224
Apr 4
46
40
190
220
Apr 11
61
39
221
213
Apr 18
41
46
224
212
Apr 25
50
43
224
205
May 2
76
37
256
196
May 9
59
46
262
207
May 16
78
48
286
200
May 23
61
42
312
192
May 30
54
44
307
183
Jun 6
70
31
338
183
Jun 13
60
41
354
202
Jun 20
71
25
388
177
Jun 27
73
26
433
159
Jul 4
55
39
432
158
Jul 11
55
24
471
161
Jul 18
49
35
459
168
Jul 25
60
20
480
158
Aug 1
55
35
473
161
Aug 8
40
32
466
151
Aug 15
51
32
451
168
Aug 22
43
29
445
166
Aug 29
43
27
449
175
Sep 5
31
22
432
144
Sep 12
38
22
415
151
Sep 19
45
26
405
155
Sep 26
45
27
402
149
Oct 3
46
19
396
143
Oct 10
40
26
391
140
Oct 17
37
19
393
134
Oct 24
50
26
402
139
Oct 31
26
19
399
144
Nov 7
37
16
393
136
Nov 14
36
16
396
118
author avatar
Jim the Realtor
Jim is a long-time local realtor who comments daily here on his blog, bubbleinfo.com which began in September, 2005. Stick around!
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1 Comment

  1. Shadash
    Shadash on November 14, 2022 at 1:56 pm

    It’s going to be tough getting in front of all the economic negativity going on right now. Price low and get out fast if you’re selling. Spring will only bring more competiton as sellers come back from the holidays.

    Something people arent considering is that banks have cleaned up their books reguarding mortgage ownership + are ready to start foreclosing again. We’ll see how long they let deadbeats stay in homes without paying their mortgage this time.

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