Del Mar Oceanfront Apartments

This 6.9-acre oceanfront site has been called one of the most exclusive and unique properties in the United States, and has been listed for sale since 2007 – the current price is $49,000,000. An incredible turn of events is underway – the planned high-end resort was defeated by the voters, so now they want to put apartments there and are using the state’s mandate for lower-income housing as their leverage. From the UT:

A developer is proposing a 259-unit apartment complex on an ocean bluff in Del Mar that was previously the site of a contentious battle over a resort.

Owner Carol Lazier has submitted paperwork and applications to Del Mar for what is being called Seaside Ridge, which would be the biggest apartment complex in the city. Plans call for 85 subsidized apartments, some for individuals making as little as $30,000 a year, on the nearly 7-acre site near Dog Beach.

Lazier and her partners are betting on new state laws that encourage residential building — especially for rent-restricted apartments — to get the plan approved.

“Our plan would help the City of Del Mar comply with the law by building 259 apartment units,” said project spokesman Darren Pudgil. “Seaside Ridge will provide 78 percent of the city’s need for 54 lower-income units (required by the state) and well over 100 percent of the city’s moderate-income need. This will provide equitable coastal access for a range of income groups.”

Seaside Ridge would have nine buildings, some up to four stories, and a two-story parking podium/garage. Taller buildings are clustered in the center and in the east portions of the site. The development would have 305 parking spots and 25 electric car charging stations. The mix of apartments would include 71 studios, 131 one-bedrooms, 38 two-bedrooms and 19 three-bedrooms. It would also include a trail accessible to the public that leads to views of the ocean.

Lazier, the property owner for around 20 years, previously worked with Zephyr Partners and The Robert Green Company to develop a hotel on the site called Marisol. The effort to get the project approved, called Measure G, was defeated by voters in 2020. A developer has not been selected yet for the apartment project, but Lazier has hired architects, land use experts and lawyers.

Lazier is known for her philanthropy, donating $1 million to save the San Diego Opera in 2014 and other donations.

A legal firm representing the development, Southern California-based Sheppard Mullin, argues Del Mar must approve the plan because it falls under recent laws — namely Senate Bills 330 and 8 — that encourage additional housing and streamline approvals.

The legal claim for Seaside Ridge centers on Del Mar being out of compliance with the state’s Housing Element Law, which requires municipalities to rezone parcels to meet requirements for housing. Seaside Ridge’s law firm also uses a law signed by the governor last year, AB 1398, that requires local governments to approve most housing projects if they are out of compliance. Del Mar has identified the fairgrounds as a possible site for subsidized housing but has yet to approve a firm plan, setting up an opportunity for Seaside Ridge.

While it remains to be seen how lawyers and staff for Del Mar will interpret Seaside Ridge’s legal claims, housing analyst Nathan Moeder said the legal argument for approval makes sense. Moeder, who was not involved in the project but reviewed legal arguments, said it appeared to be an example of a community unable to escape housing requirements imposed by the state.

Moeder said it would be ironic if the project is approved because residents of the area would probably have enjoyed the resort defeated by Measure G, with restaurants and more public features.

“This is the unintended consequence of NIMBYism,” he said, referring to the anti-housing term Not in my Backyard. “They tried to stop a hotel that was more public-orientated, it had a restaurant and a bar that the public could use, and now they are just going to stuff housing there.”

Moeder said the NIMBY movement will need to get smarter about opposing projects because most land-use fights will now need to be taken up in Sacramento.

“It’s the state that’s making this happen. It’s not the local governments,” he said. “You can pass any initiative or referendum you want at the local level. The state will override you.”

NSDCC Pendings Since 6% Rates

The national bashing of the real estate market continues unabated, and I’m sure there are individual markets that are really feeling it.  But real estate is local, so let’s examine the facts.

To get a sense of what has been happening since rates got into the 6s, let’s review NSDCC homes that have gone pending recently. You don’t have to know the streets or the particular homes – just scroll through the bunch and you’ll get the feeling that frenzy pricing is still lingering. Click on any for the full listing:

Inventory Watch

Bill has been following the inventory in different markets, and San Diego is faring much better than other areas.  He is showing a 23.8% drop in new listings YoY, but last year was the record low.  Look at the previous years:

September New Listings, San Diego County Detached and Attached Homes:

2005: 6,325

2006: 5,735

2007: 5,448

2008: 5,101

2009: 4,328

2010: 4,696

2011: 4,013

2012: 3,578

2013: 4,265

2014: 4,367

2015: 4,185

2016: 4,267

2017: 3,953

2018: 4,506

2019: 3,959

2020: 4,389

2021: 3,570

2022: 2,853

Everyone talks about the demand-side, but our market is being impacted by the lack of supply too.

Could there be demand that isn’t being satisfied because there aren’t more quality homes for sale listed by good agents at attractive prices?

  1. I had 100+ people come to open house this weekend, and there were legitimate buyers in the group.
  2. I wanted to show a house this weekend, and the showing instructions said to text the listing agent. I started via text on Wednesday, but literally never got a response, so I didn’t show it. The listing is still active today.
  3. Higher rates haven’t changed the frustration of finding the right house, at the right price.

The inventory is probably going to dry up further and more sellers get convinced that now isn’t a good time to sell.  With a tight selection of quality homes for sale, those who are willing to sell now aren’t going to be deterred from trying peak pricing, or close.

Example: My $1,800,000 listing in Aviara?  This just popped up around the corner, priced at $2,295,000:

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/1306-savannah-lane-carlsbad-ca-92011/1158240234153778457

Those folks might sell, and they might not, but they should help me with mine!  My point is that we are not seeing an increasing flow of new listings being priced lower and lower in an attempt to get out now. It’s actually quite the opposite.

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Wire Fraud

Hat tip to just some guy for sending this in – an excerpt:

BEC scammers typically engage in what Alex calls a shotgun approach. They compile contact information for random players involved in any real estate transaction—lawyers, brokers, title agencies, mortgage lenders—then send mass phishing emails to this database, waiting for someone to take the bait.

In the email, the scammers might provide a link that leads to a website resembling the real estate agent or title company’s email login page. The duped individual will type out their credentials, which might lead to an error page. Most think nothing of it—perhaps it was merely an internet connection problem. They don’t realize they’ve sent their login information to the hacker, who now has access to their email and confidential company information. Critically, they are also able to track conversations about impending home sales with buyers, ultimately zeroing in on the specific deals they want to infiltrate.

That’s the easy part. What follows is complex social engineering, in which the scammers monitor correspondence about a specific transaction for months. Without tipping off anyone, they learn the minute details of a deal. When it becomes apparent that a down payment is about to be wired, they jump in with a fraudulent email to the buyer, pretending to give official instructions from the real estate or title agent: Please wire your money to this bank account. The email can be sent from the compromised account or from a fake one that looks almost identical to that of the agent in the deal. The unsuspecting buyer wires their life savings to a criminal.

Reports about this alarming scheme exploded during the pandemic, when home prices, bidding wars, and cash deals all rose. As transaction volume swelled, so did profits for real estate companies, lenders, and banks, and hackers smelled a growing opportunity. By targeting escrow wires, scammers are able to single out a particularly easy jackpot, a transaction involving multiple parties without proper internet security and the rare instance in which a giant sum of cash is sent in a single wire.

In 2020 and 2021 the FBI labeled BECs the costliest cyberthreat, accounting for reported losses of $4.2 billion, with real estate wire fraud becoming one of the most targeted sectors. “Those numbers are floors, not ceilings,” says Crane Hassold, director of threat intelligence at Abnormal Security, an email security company. “There’s a lot that doesn’t get reported.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-10-07/hackers-target-homebuyers-life-savings-in-real-estate-scam

Padres Playoffs 2022 Game 3

I got to go to Game 3 with daughter Natalie!



Many thanks to Gary Moyer, owner of our season tickets and the greatest friend a guy could ever have, for getting KR some recognition on the big board!

BJK, part-owner of the Dodgers, enjoyed the whole game and was very cordial about taking photos with fans.  This was all I needed:

Longtime friend and fellow season-ticket holder Doug brought his daughter too:

What a game!

Post-Frenzy Bio Disco

We launched our Aviara listing with open houses on the weekend of September 17 & 18.  Newer one-story homes built by Davidson might be the most popular homes around – if you can find one for sale.

Remarkably, there were two other sales of this floor plan this year. In March, there was a sale across the street that closed for $2,110,000, and another around the corner sold for $2,050,000 in June.  Both made our $1,800,000 list price look attractive.

A few days later, we opened escrow at $2,100,000 cash.

Allegedly, the buyer was a recent widow in her 40s with two kids who was being represented by her mother who was in her 70s – who admitted to not being an active realtor for years. No problem, we will help you along the way to make sure we all get to the finish line.

Their home inspector mentioned a stain on a baseboard, and that a mold test would be in order.

Once that thought is out in the open, people will think the worst.

They hired a mold inspector who conducted the standard air sampling where they compare the mold counts in the air outdoors to samples taken inside. Those results came back clear – no mold.  He also collected swab samples from under the toilets and sinks, and the one area did test positive:

The only mold found was on a single baseboard behind a toilet that measured 2+ on a scale of 1-4.

I told the buyer and the buyer’s agent that we regularly deal with mold remediation and have one of the best solutions available.  Not only do we have a certified mold-remediation contractor, but we also have the county’s best mold tester who will give you great confidence that the problem has been eradicated.

The agent seemed to take it worse than the buyer, which led to their confession.

It turned out that the daughter was buying the house for her mother, the agent!

I knew I had a problem because people in their 70s aren’t as familiar with today’s more-complex set of variables of home buying. Back in the old days, we didn’t do home inspections, let alone have home inspectors who instill fear in buyers who are already skittish. I don’t mind suggesting further inspections, but have some bedside manner, for pete’s sake. Describe them in a way that you don’t scare the crap out of the buyers. In the days that passed between the home inspection and the actual mold results, you can bet that the buyer/agent imagined the very worst.

Her final statement?  “I can’t handle the stress”.

The next day she sent over the signed cancellation form, with no explanation.

We completed the remediation, and now I get to convince another buyer that there isn’t a problem today.

How many other homes for sale have minor mold under a sink or toilet?  Many? Most? Yet, the majority of homes sold don’t get tested for mold, so buyers never know what they are buying, or what lies ahead. But not here!  We’ve done full remediation and it tested 100% clean!

Open house 12-3pm this weekend!

https://www.compass.com/app/listing/7313-golden-star-lane-carlsbad-ca-92011/1136561122604786257

Wait Until When?

I tell potential home buyers to keep looking because you never know when you will find the right house – which is the most important part of the equation. Most will convince themselves that it will be easier to find the right house if prices came down, and besides, the current crop isn’t that interesting.

To keep it simple, let’s just calculate how mortgage rates have changed the equation:

Purchase Price: $2,000,000

Loan Amount: $1,600,000

30-yr jumbo rate: 3%

Monthly pmt: $6,746

Buyers who expect the sellers to make up the entire difference with a lower sales price will have to wait until they can find a home that meets this description:

Purchase Price: $1,400,000

Loan Amount: $1,120,000

30-yr jumbo rate: 6%

Monthly pmt: $6,715

If home prices come down 30%, it will enable buyers to buy the same house for the same monthly payment – and with a $120,000 smaller down payment too. If it happened over the next five years, it means we only need to drop about 6% per year, and we’ve already dropped more than that in 2022.

Or let’s say you want to roll back to pre-pandemic pricing.

NSDCC homes that sold in February, 2020 closed at a median of $509/sf, and last month the median was $793/sf which means we’d need a 36% decline to get back to pre-pandemic pricing.

How are you going to play it?

Are you going to wait until you actually see homes selling for 30% to 36% off to get back into the game?

Are are you going to wait until rates come back to 3%?

Or do we acknowledge that the buyers who have more horsepower are going to jump back in sooner, and there’s not much chance of prices dropping the full 30% to 36%?  The highly-motivated affluent folks will probably be satisfied with 20% off, and they will derail a full decline.  It’s what happened in 2012.

Can you live with 20% off?

Because if you can, then you need to stay in the game.

If the #1 variable is buying the right house, then #2 is timing.

I think the affluent will be looking next spring, and if they find a suitable house, they are going to buy it. By then, some of the statistical pricing gauges will be showing 10% to 20% declines, either nationally or in isolated markets. Because the local pricing isn’t that nuanced and buyers just want a house, they will decide that’s close enough and go ahead with the purchase.

To support my suspicion, I’ll note that during the frenzy, it was the same mentality, just in reverse.

When people found the right house, they just paid whatever it took – even if it meant paying $500,000 to $1,000,000 over the list price!  Nothing else mattered besides getting the right house.

Most buyers won’t believe their eyes, and the volume will be thin. But sellers will appreciate any momentum and be encouraged to price their home for about what they thought they could get, with not much discount. Buyers who want discounts will be relegated to scouring through the dent-and-scratch bin, or hope that moving during the off-season might be more fruitful. Great for them.

What are you going to do?

Here We Go Padres!

The Padres won the game they needed to win last night!

There are games on Friday and Saturday night at Petco Park, and you may be wondering if you should attend.  The answer is YES, because we never know if we’ll get another chance.

It’s almost like today’s housing market.  People are passing on opportunities to buy today because they think there’s always tomorrow.

I’ll tell my story.

I became a season-ticket holder in 1998, and in my very first season, the Padres went to the World Series!

I told Donna that this was the greatest decision we’ve ever made, and she can plan on going to the playoffs almost every year, and we’ll have several World Series to come!

Look how that turned out. Two playoff appearances in 2005 and 2006 and we lost six out of seven games – that’s it (plus 2020 with no fans).

Yes, it is going to be very expensive (StubHub charges a 28% fee), plus there will be fights in the stands, and riots in the streets.  You won’t want to miss it!

I plan on being there. I’ll let you know how it goes!

For those of you who were here in 1984, this is a reminder of the craziness in Pacific Beach after we beat the Cubs to go to the World Series:

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