Average List-Price-Per-SF of Detached-Homes Between La Jolla and Carlsbad
Price Range
First Week of January
Last Week of December
Difference
0-$1,500,000
$832/sf
$737/sf
-11%
$1.5M – $2.0M
$842/sf
$810/sf
-4%
$2.0M – $3.0M
$1,080/sf
$908/sf
-16%
$3.0M – $4.0M
$1,230/sf
$1,222/sf
-1%
$4.0M+
$1,884/sf
$1,676/sf
-11%
A note on the $2.0M – $3.0M drop; the $/sf was down to $905/sf by February 28th when the frenzy was red hot so the $1,080/sf was an anomaly.
Today’s sellers have come down a little on price, but they’re not convinced yet. Even though there are more competitors today, there aren’t enough to feel like you have to give it away:
Number of Active Listings Between La Jolla and Carlsbad
Price Range
First Week of January
Last Week of December
0-$1,500,000
9
23
$1.5M – $2.0M
8
50
$2.0M – $3.0M
18
59
$3.0M – $4.0M
19
30
$4.0M+
100
133
Hopefully next year’s sellers will agree that the lingering active listings are a sign of what’s not working.
It’s bad enough that the Fed chairman doesn’t know how his actions will affect the markets. If you didn’t know, wouldn’t you be cautious?
Apparently not for Powell, and it seems likely that the Fed will bump their Fed Funds rate another 3/4% in the first half of 2023 – and maybe do all of it in the first quarter (there are two Fed meetings in 1Q23).
The mortgage companies have to be scrambling with the drastically-reduced volume of loans, so hopefully some of it is already priced in, for their sake. Financed sales are probably down 50% and there aren’t many homeowners wanting to refinance at these higher rates, so lenders will be forced to squeeze their margins just to stay in business.
If they can keep jumbo rates in the 5s, I think we’ll be ok next year.
But we can’t expect to absorb another 3/4% hike by the Fed and not see it affect mortgage rates. It means that today’s rates might be the lowest we see until a few months into the Fed-induced recession….if it happens. If the recession doesn’t happen or is mild, then we’ll be stuck with those higher rates – and if they hike by 3/4% and just let it ride, today’s rates could be the lowest we see in the next 2-4 years.
Yet they will be wasted because there is nothing to buy – sellers will hold off until the coast is clear.
Powell can’t envision this scenario, even though it should be obvious. When you publicly state that you are trying to reset the the real estate market, potential sellers are going to wait until later to sell.
Will Congress think about revisiting the 2 out of 5 year exemption, passed in 1997? They should, because that’s what could flood the market with inventory. If you want a reset, you need to do things to INCREASE the supply, not tighten it.
As you may know, there are multiple lawsuits pending that accuse realtors of price fixing, and it ain’t looking good for us. Here is evidence provided in court – thanks Rob:
The Franchisor Defendants provided training to brokers which directed them to offer a 6% commission rate, to be split equally among the Seller-Broker and the Buyer-Broker. The Franchisor Defendants used this 6% commission rate split in educational transaction models.
For example, Re/Max training documents instructed brokers to develop their “Economic Model” and “define the ‘average’ commission that will come from each of their closings,” including an example of a 6% commission rate per transaction, split 50/50 between the Seller-Broker and Buyer-Broker.
Similarly, Keller Williams trained its brokers to develop an “economic model” which provided a “standard 6% commission” rate per transaction, split 50/50 between the Seller-Broker and Buyer-Broker.
Additionally, the HomeServices Defendants circulated training materials from Intero, a California subsidiary, that instructed brokers to “always have 6% written in on ALL listing agreements” and, if they “have to give something,” to “remember they always have to pay [the Buyer-Broker] a minimum of 2.5%.”
Further, the Franchisor Defendants trained brokers to never lower their rates. For example, Re/Max trained brokers to “have the commission typed into the listing agreement” before speaking to Sellers, and to tell Sellers “‘This is what my company charges.’”
Re/Max franchises must “maintain . . . quality,” including avoiding “discounting rates,” or the franchise may be sold.
Keller Williams provided brokers with scripted responses to requests to lower commissions, stating that brokers “require a full 6 percent” to “do the advertising that they do” and that a “discount rate will not provide you with enough exposure to get you top dollar.”
Realogy acknowledged that its franchisees compete with one another, and instructs franchisees to “avoid any action or discussion intended to eliminate or restrict competition” including discussions of “commission structures.” However, Realogy provided training to its franchisees and subsidiaries regarding commissions and trains its agent to tell clients they cannot cut commissions. [Citations removed, and edited for legibility and clarity.]
This probably didn’t help much:
The next court date isn’t until October, and undoubtedly there will be an appeal, so it will be a year or two before the case is done. The likely results will be that sellers won’t be obligated to pay the buyer-agent commissions. Not sure if that will reduce them, or eliminate them, but this will likely be the big commission disruption that has been expected by outsiders.
The Specials, along with Madness and the English Beat, brought us the ska movement in the late 1970s/early-1980s. Their lead singer, Terry Hall, died unexpectedly this week at age 63.
Hat tip to just some guy for sending in this article:
As the national leader of real estate, Zillow is attempting to guide people with data, thankfully. Their Home-Value Index has been decent, and I’ll take the -7% for San Diego….which means our premium areas haven’t felt much decline at all.
Their comment on current conditions isn’t ground-breaking but at least it offers some hope:
Activity in the housing market has slowed to a crawl this winter but the stage is set for a spring thaw: buyers can count on the usual springtime flood of new listings, and less frenzied competition than the last two spring selling seasons in the New Year. But if home shoppers really want to experience some deserted open houses, there’s no time like the present, because this lull won’t last long.
Here are their latest predictions about our local areas, all of which have values that are higher YoY:
NW Carlsbad
SE Carlsbad
NE Carlsbad
SW Carlsbad
Carmel Valley
Del Mar
Encinitas
La Jolla
Rancho Santa Fe
Let’s enjoy our stay in Plateau City – we may be here for a while!
The #1 reason that the real estate market has been in the doldrums over the last few months is because of the inept response from realtors on how to handle it. There hasn’t been ANY real guidance or advice coming from NAR and other industry leaders on what to do, which gives the appearance that they probably don’t have a clue.
But the least they can do is respond to doomers leaving unsubstantiated teasers on your twitter account. This guy is begging you to respond, and you just let it go? Have some guts and reply with something that forwards the conversation…..please!
I’d respond with this:
The baby boomers own most of the homes, and 91% of them aren’t interested in accessing their equity, let alone moving! There isn’t going to be a flood of boomer liquidations, though I hope it comes some day. While there might be some minor outbreaks in 2023, for the most part, seniors are going to age in place and chuckle at the real estate mailers that promise instant riches.
I don’t listen to podcasts but I probably should. Do you?
Should I do a podcast? Maybe I can work one in occasionally next year. It always seemed repetitive to talk about the same things you see here on the blog, but I could always tell old stories.
With the radical change in market conditions, the annual statistics are going to look dramatically different from the more recent activity – look at these differences in home sales between La Jolla and Carlsbad.
NSDCC 2022 Annual Sales, and Sales Since Nov 1st:
Data Point
Jan 1-Dec 20
Nov 1-Dec 20
% Difference
Median LP
$2,292,500
$1,989,000
-13%
Median SP
$2,321,000
$1,890,000
-19%
Median DOM
15
28
+87%
Median SF
2,727sf
2,609
-4%
Median $/sf
$828/sf
$740/sf
-11%
Average $/sf
$970/sf
$826/sf
-15%
My guesses?
I’m predicting a +5% change in the current NSDCC median sales price of $1,890,000 which gets us back to almost $2,000,000. Combine the softer pricing with current seller disappointment and the damage has been done – the 2023 local inventory should be so low that it helps to create a floor in pricing.
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A+ thank you
Lisa Tuomi
June 11, 2025
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Many years ago, we purchased a home in Carlsbad, using a realtor that was recommended to us - Jim Klinge. Fast forward to 2025, we recently had the privilege of selling 2 homes in Carlsbad, CA and didn't hesitate to reach out to Jim and Donna Klinge of Klinge Realty Group to guide us through the sales. The transactions were very different, each with its own unique situation, opportunities and challenges. From start to finish, Donna and Jim helped navigate the pre-sale preparation, the listing, showing of the house, buyer negotiations, the final close and all of the paperwork and decisions in between. What stands out with both transactions is the professionalism of Jim and Donna (and their team), wonderful communication (timely, relevant, concise), their deep understanding of market dynamics (setting realistic expectations), their access to top-notch contractors, and last, their ability to guide us across the finish line successfully. We wouldn't hesitate to use Jim and Donna in the future and highly recommend them for anyone looking to buy or sell a property in North San Diego County.
Jerry Meyer
March 28, 2025
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We sold a home with Jim and Donna and from beginning to end they were consummate professionals. Their initial walk through the property resulted in a list of items to be repaired or updated. They supplied a list of vendors and job quotes to do the repairs and updates. We originally wanted to sell ‘as is’ and just get it over with. They gave us a selling price for ‘as is’ and options for doing a few updates/repairs to doing it all with the selling price for each option. We agreed to do all they suggested and we sold for the exact price they predicted. For every dollar spent we got back more than $2 back in the selling price. And they got that price in a rising interest rate environment! Donna and Jim are extremely detailed and guide you through ever aspect of the sale. There were no surprises thanks to their guidance. We couldn’t be more pleased with their representation.
Thank you Donna and Jim,
Jerry and Mary
Heather Quejada
March 27, 2025
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We have known Jim & Donna Klinge for over a dozen years, having met them in Carlsbad where our children went to the same school. As long time North County residents, it was a no- brainer for us to have the Klinges be our eyes and ears for San Diego real estate in general and North County in particular. As my military career caused our family to move all over the country and overseas to Asia, Europe and the Pacific, we trusted Jim and Donna to help keep our house in Carlsbad rented with reliable and respectful tenants for over 10 years.
Naturally, when the time came to sell our beloved Carlsbad home to pursue a rural lifestyle in retirement out of California, we could think of no better team to represent us than Jim and Donna. They immediately went to work to update our house built in 2004 to current-day standards and trends — in 2 short months they transformed it into a literal modern-day masterpiece. We trusted their judgement implicitly and followed 100% of their recommended changes. When our house finally came on the market, there was a blizzard of serious interest, we had multiple offers by the third day and it sold in just 5 days after a frenzied bidding war for 20% above our asking price! The investment we made in upgrades recommended by Jim and Donna yielded a 4-fold return, in the process setting a new high water mark for a house sold in our community.
In our view, there are no better real estate professionals in all of San Diego than Jim and Donna Klinge. Buying or selling, you must run and beg Jim and Donna Klinge to represent you! Our family will never forget Jim, Donna, and their whole team at Compass — we are forever grateful to them.
Lou F
March 27, 2025
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WeI had the pleasure of working with Klinge Realty Group to sell our home in Carmel Valley, and I cannot recommend them highly enough!
Jim and Donna demonstrated exceptional professionalism, offering expert guidance on market conditions and pricing strategy, which resulted in a quick and successful sale.
Communication was prompt and we were well-informed throughout the entire process.
For anyone looking for a dedicated and knowledgeable real estate team, look no further!
---
William Sams
March 25, 2025
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Donna and Jim Klinge of Klinge Realty Group have our highest possible recommendation. From Donna and Jim’s first visit to our house through closing their advice and counsel was candid and honest in all dealings. They kept us fully informed throughout the process. The house sold less than three days after listing with a two-week closing. My wife and I have sold several houses during our lives. This was by far the best experience. Klinge Reality is a premium service realtor. You can’t make a better choice for someone to sell your home fast and for top dollar.
Emily Hernandez
December 29, 2024
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Donna and Jim provided exceptional support and professionalism throughout the entire process. We couldn't have been happier with their efforts. They made our house shine, and thanks to their expertise, it sold above the listing price in the very first weekend! Truly a fantastic experience from start to finish.
Jesus Adrian Sahagun
November 11, 2024
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This year has been difficult on our family, mainly due to having to sell our home. Thankfully we knew God had a plan for us and working with the Klinge team was a key part of it. It was an obvious decision to work with them again after such an amazing experience when purchasing the same home we needed to sell. The challenge was, how will we do this in so little time with so much going on? Jim and Donna held our hand every step of the way. Whenever an unexpected issue arose they found and provided a solution. Never once did we feel pressured to make a decision and the Klinges were always reassuring after providing the information that the decision was ours to make. Despite the curve balls, they never panicked and exemplified the “can do” attitude, making us feel optimistic and taken care of. Their expertise and professionalism was superb. But of all the reasons to work with the Klinges, the most impactful and valuable is their compassion and genuine care for their clients. We pray that we can one day purchase our forever home and you better believe that Jim and Donna will be representing us - as long as they will have us of course. Thank you again Klinge team! Your execution, experience, and care are unmatched.
SABIHA PASHA
July 23, 2024
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Jim and Donna were fantastic! Jim understanding my needs, recommending potential places, pointing out the pros and cons of each property was invaluable. Then when the offer was accepted Donna’s organized guidance through the inspections, paperwork etc made the whole process seem effortless.
So grateful that I had them on my side!
Anu Koberg
July 13, 2024
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We first found Jim through his blog at bubbleinfo.com, which really showcased his knowledge of SoCal real estate. Since then we've done three transactions with Jim and Donna, and they are an incredible full service agency, with Jim's deep market insight and Donna's deft contract and project management. We trust them implicitly in their analysis and strategy, which is based on years of experience. They're always available and on top of things, and we strongly recommend them to anyone.