This website allows you to type in an address and see how a property may be exposed to fire, flood, drought, and heat risk – all of which can impact longterm valuation as well as monthly costs as it relates to potential repairs and insurance costs:
They don’t appear to be selling anything – just a free newsletter.
I’m not going to get crazy-optimistic just because the over-list percentage more than doubled MoM, or because last month’s median sales price was 11% higher than it was a couple of months ago.
I’m just happy that the number of sales appears to have bottomed out.
Let’s say that it looks like our local market has stabilized.
So far, there have been 37 sales closed in March, which means we should hit 100+ easily.
We know that the perception is more important than the reality, especially for potential sellers. If they see some media coverage that is slightly positive, maybe more will come to market this year, instead of waiting for some vague unknown day in the future when the market gets ‘better’.
An excerpt:
Zillow economists now believe they’re done issuing downward revisions. In fact, they think the national housing market correction could be nearing its bottom.
Heading forward, Zillow economists expect U.S. home values as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) to rise 0.5% between January 2023 and January 2024.
Among the 400 largest housing markets tracked by Zillow, the company expects 238 markets to see positive home price growth between January 2023 and January 2024, while it expects six markets to remain flat and 156 markets to notch a home price decline over the next 12 months. Simply put: Zillow expects only 39% of major markets to post a home price decline over the coming year.
Link to Fortune article
It was a year ago that my uncle’s girlfriend’s house went on the market for full retail at $3,195,000.
Nobody is going to feel sorry for the buyers who pay a half-million or more over list, and the buyers probably knew that it was lost money for now. But hey, they got their house!
Our local market is dependent upon the higher-priced markets like Los Angeles and the Bay Area holding up, and continuing to make our market look like a bargain. So far, it looks like the the value of this home is about the same as the value it was a year ago when the listing agent comped it out.
Have they been watching? Hat tip to Dan for sending this in!
Do higher rates affect the lower-end markets more? Or are the lower-end buyers rushing to beat higher rates later this year? Or is it all about price?
The NSDCC market under $3,000,000 looks very healthy. The actives-to-pendings ratio is almost 1:1, and there is only a 6.5% gap between their LP-per-sf stats:
The higher-end is doing what it usually does – price high and wait. Their gaps are bubbly (3.6:1, 23%). Buyers in the upper price points should be very cautious – get good help!
JtR Listings:
Good tips from a local certified divorce financial analyst – if you give up your share of the house, make sure your spouse refinances in his/her name only. Just because you get quitclaimed off title doesn’t mean your responsibility for the old mortgage is relinquished. Qualifying for the refinance is usually a tipping point.
https://www.theoptionslady.com/post/questions-to-answer-if-you-want-to-keep-the-house-in-divorce
San Diego is only for affluent buyers now:
Bankrate ranked 50 metro areas across four broad categories: housing prices in relation to local wages; the tightness of the local housing market; the employment picture; and wellness and culture. Based on that scoring, the top areas are:
1. Austin: This metro area’s job market is booming, and it ranks first in that category. Austin also placed second in market tightness and near the top in wellness and culture. It lags in just one area: affordability. With a median home price of $565,000 as of September, according to Redfin, Austin can be a challenging market for young buyers looking for a starter home.
2. Kansas City: The Kansas City metro area ranked No. 3 in affordability and No. 11 in market tightness. However, its ranking was pulled down by middle-of-the-pack showings in job market and wellness and culture.
3. Raleigh: Raleigh ranks No. 1 in market tightness, or lack thereof. In this category, Bankrate graded metro areas by how many homes were for sale compared to a year ago, and how quickly those homes sell. In the other three categories, the Research Triangle region (which includes nearby Durham and Chapel Hill) ranked outside the top 10, but still above average.
4. Minneapolis: The Twin Cities region placed fifth in the labor market category, thanks to a low unemployment rate, strong job growth and short commutes. While it didn’t dominate in any other category, the metro area performed well overall, posting top 20 finishes in wellness and affordability.
5. Jacksonville: This northern Florida metro area placed in the top 10 in both the job market category and in housing market tightness.
At the bottom are a group of five metro areas with steep home prices and tight housing markets:
46. Riverside: California homebuyers who are willing to move inland can get a house for hundreds of thousands of dollars less than they’d spend in a beachside city like San Diego. One trade-off is long commute times, which pulled Riverside down in our rankings. Lower incomes compared to coastal Southern California also make affordability a challenge.
47. San Diego: San Diego ranked 49th out of 50 in affordability, easily offsetting its No. 4 ranking in wellness and culture.
48. New York City: The largest metro area in the U.S. had back-of-the-pack showings in Bankrate’s job market and affordability categories. The lone bright spot was a No. 3 showing in wellness and culture.
49. Boston: Boston came in 46th in affordability, and its rankings in the other three categories were in the middle of the pack.
50. Washington, D.C.: The nation’s capital ranks 44th in job market, a result of weak job growth and long commutes. In another poor showing, D.C. ranks 39th in market tightness. Its only top 10 finish came in wellness and culture.
All 50 metros ranked here:
https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/best-cities-for-first-time-homebuyers/
Combining the January and February stats gives us the larger sample sizes to better identify the trends.
The sellers are doing a phenomenal job at restricting the supply, and there have been enough buyers to keep the momentum going. The current listings/sales ratio is better than it was in the years before the frenzy, in spite of much higher pricing. Compare today’s pricing to 2021:
There were 78 of the 201 sales that were all-cash (39%).
It would help if there was more innovation in the mortgage world. You can get a 5-year fixed jumbo at 5.625% today, but with everyone buying their forever home, how many will want short-term money?
Without creative financing or lower rates, we will likely be on a long bumpy road for years to come.
Between the lawsuits that will decouple commissions and homes.com that funnels all inquiries back to the listing agent, the buyer-agents are cooked. It’s just a matter of time.
Hat tip to RE News – an excerpt:
Florance also detailed his vision for Homes.com, which he believes can serve the interests of consumers and agents in ways that other residential listings sites do not.
“I’ve used some of these competing sites myself and submitted leads on properties I’m interested in. The experience is remarkably awful,” Florance said. “The moment you submit a lead and for months afterwards, you’re bombarded with cold calls from countless agents who have questionable qualifications.”
He said the agent experience is also lacking. “The competing models use all the agents’ listings in a market to funnel monetize leads to just a very small percentage of agents.”
Florance also made the case that there is plenty of opportunity to provide a more seamless online set of tools for agents while cultivating a residential real estate space for consumers serious about buying and selling homes. “While other sites are injecting their agents into the homebuyers’ search experience somewhat awkwardly, we offer a friction-free environment connecting buyers directly to the listing agents,” he told investors.
Consumers can collaborate with their agent directly using the Homes.com platform. “Our agent collaboration tools are up and running. We’ve had tremendous feedback from both agents and consumers,” Florance said.
“We’re presenting consumers with hundreds of thousands of highly qualified potential buyer agents for free based upon those buyer agent skills and experiences rather based on how much the buyer agent is willing to give up in commission to the portal,” Florance said. He predicted that the company will start monetizing the site later this year.
“Not only do we believe we offer a superior consumer experience for buyers, we also believe we are much better aligned with real estate agents,” Florance said.
Link to Full Article about Homes.com
