What would a frenzy of inventory look like? There has only been a 15% year-over-year increase in the number of homes for sale in 2024, which isn't that noticeable, especially to the casual observer. Plus, the top-quality homes still get swept off the market quickly,...
There are several reasons why I think the local inventory will surge in 2025. It will be due to several causes contributing more houses for sale, and all combined it may look like a flood in some areas. Been Trending That Way in 2024 - The inventory this year has been...
Can we learn about what to expect in 2025 by reviewing the other recent metrics available? Here are alternative ways to gauge the market conditions - the most interesting numbers in red: Number of Sales - Just incredible that out of nowhere the July sales set the high...
Pardon the casual presentation. I'm used to working with this same basic graph format but it's limited to 50 datapoints - we'd really like to take these back a few years to see the long-term trends. But in early 2023, the active listings in the $3M - $4M category were...
The blip in active listings over the last week isn't too concerning and could just be from the weather. The count of active listings is a good indicator of the demand though. During the mega-frenzy conditions from late-2020 through early-2022, you can see that the new...
After a disappointing number of sales last month (87, the lowest monthly count ever), January is poised to reach 100+ sales. There are 128 houses in escrow today, and 39 of those were marked 'pending' prior to January 1st so probably 20+ of those stand a good chance...
Yesterday, Jay Powell shocked the world by declaring three rate cuts in 2024! It was Fed speak of the most unusual order - open and transparent, instead of the opaque mumbling of previous chairmen. The predictions are for rate cuts early in 2024 too. The CNBC survey...
Mortgage rates have come down 1% in the last few weeks, and the casual observers are hoping it means that the Big Turnaround will commence in the Spring of 2024. But for a full-fledged frenzy to break out, home prices would have to drop too. We'll never learn much...
To hear more stories like this and a wide array of opinions, click here: https://twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1649240769658605570 Remember when I was on CNBC with Sully in 2011? He used to live in Carmel Valley!
In this graph from two weeks ago we saw that there were 28% of the NSDCC detached-home sales in March that closed over their list price. Because it's one of my favorite ways to judge the market conditions, I did a check on the numbers for April so far: NSDCC April...
