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Average % Paid of Last List Price

Nobody is giving them away!

I think we can agree that list prices today are at or above the all-time highs, yet with demand overwhelming the few listings that are trickling out, buyers are forced to consider going even higher. It’s working too:

We usually get some anxious buyers who pay closer to the list price in Jan-Feb, but the average has stayed under 100% in recent years.

With January already pushing 101%, it’s going to get crazier – and this is the Over-$815,000 market!

If you’re the type of buyer that refuses to get into a bidding war, you might have to sit this one out.

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San Diego Case-Shiller Index, Nov

It was in June, 2011 that Ben Bernanke said at a live press conference: We have told the banks to handle their REOs…..long pause………..in an economy-supportive way.  Oops.  What he was GOING to say was “we have told the banks not to flood the market with REOs.”

Since then, foreclosures dried up, mortgage rates came down, and the local home prices have gone up steadily.  Today’s pricing curve looks similar to 2013 – if it repeats, then prices should flatten out this summer.  But who knows – there is heavy demand, and few sellers have been lured by these prices!

San Diego Non-Seasonally-Adjusted CSI changes:

Observation Month
SD CSI
M-o-M chg
Y-o-Y chg
January ’19
251.30
-0.2%
+1.3%
Feb
253.69
+0.9%
+1.1%
Mar
256.40
+1.1%
+1.2%
Apr
257.63
+0.5%
+0.8%
May
260.08
+1.0%
+1.1%
June
261.90
+0.7%
+1.3%
July
263.66
+0.7%
+2.0%
Aug
263.23
-0.2%
+2.3%
Sep
263.26
0%
+2.8%
Oct
262.56
-0.2%
+2.7%
Nov
263.18
+0.2%
+3.9%
Dec
263.51
+0.1%
+4.7%
Jan ’20
264.04
+0.2%
+5.1%
Feb
265.34
+0.5%
+4.6%
Mar
269.63
+1.6%
+5.2%
Apr
272.48
+1.1%
+5.8%
May
273.51
+0.4%
+5.2%
June
274.91
+0.5%
+5.0%
July
278.00
+1.1%
+5.4%
Aug
283.06
+1.8%
+7.6%
Sep
288.11
+1.8%
+9.4%
Oct
292.85
+1.6%
+11.5%
Nov
295.64
+1.0%
+12.3%

From cnbc:

Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to show the strongest price appreciation of all the major markets in November. Phoenix led the way with a 13.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.7% increase and San Diego with a 12.3% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November versus the end of October.

“Our 2021 outlook expects an eventual moderation to price gains as home construction ramps up and the widespread availability of COVID vaccines bring more flexible sellers back to the housing market, but it will be some time before these changes bring relief,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist with realtor.com.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/26/november-home-prices-rose-9point5percent-one-of-the-highest-gains-on-record-case-shiller-says.html

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NSDCC Sales 2020

Let’s do a final round-up of the 2020 numbers:

NSDCC Annual Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
# of $2M+ Sales
2013
3,083
$949,000
41
392
2014
2,904
$1,020,000
47
434
2015
3,104
$1,090,000
47
491
2016
3,104
$1,160,000
47
523
2017
3,088
$1,225,000
30
605
2018
2,814
$1,325,000
23
617
2019
2,838
$1,327,250
26
645
2020
3,228
$1,475,000
19
891

The median sales price went up 11% YoY, and the number of $2,000,000+ sales went up 38%!

And it feels like 2021 could be crazier!

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San Diego #1 in USA

Either we are undervalued, or we’re getting more popular….and maybe both!

The price of a San Diego home could increase by more than 8 percent this year, more than anywhere else in the nation, according to a forecast released Tuesday.

Real estate analysts CoreLogic said the price of a single-family home in San Diego County will increase 8.3 percent from November 2020 to November 2021. That means the median price of house in San Diego could be around $776,000 by the end of the year.

CoreLogic said main reason is a lack of homes for sale that will push up prices as buyers fight it out. A secondary factor is income growth for highly skilled positions in San Diego County.

It isn’t out of the ordinary for San Diego homes to increase a lot in a year — in fact, single-family homes here were up 9.5 percent last year — but the forecast is noteworthy because CoreLogic predicts most markets will see price appreciation slow in most markets.

The only regions that the real estate analysts say will come close to climbing as much as San Diego will be: Miami, predicted to increase 3.2 percent; Los Angeles, up 3.2 percent; and Washington, D.C., up 2.9 percent. CoreLogic said the total national increase should be around 2.5 percent.

“San Diego is just one of those markets that has had a lot of income growth and not enough supply to meet demand,” said Selma Hepp, CoreLogic deputy chief economist.

She said San Diego is an example of what has been seen a lot across the nation: High-wage workers who have been able to work from home have seen fortunes increase during the pandemic while low-wage workers lost income because their jobs were among the first shuttered during shutdowns.

“Income inequality is being exacerbated by all of this,” Hepp said.

Link to full U-T Article

Hello 2021 Frenzy!

When will we know more about the 2021 frenzy?

We already know it’s going to be hot – look at the sales count for this month, plus we have 285 pendings:

NSDCC December Sales

Year
December Sales
The Following January Sales
% Drop-off
2012
181
128
29%
2013
223
184
17%
2014
255
172
33%
2015
258
170
34%
2016
241
175
27%
2017
223
151
32%
2018
197
153
22%
2019
228
185
19%
2020
283
??
??

We knew that 2020 was going to be better than usual just by the 185 sales in January. Then the pandemic derailed us for a couple of months, but we gained it all back in the second half of the year and 2020 wound up with the most annual NSDCC sales ever.

The drop-off from December to January a year ago was only 19%, so if we see about the same decline next month, we’ll know that the frenzy is continuing.  We have 283 December sales this morning, and once we add today’s sales plus the late-reporters we’ll probably be around 310 sales for this month(!!!).

If next month’s sales end up around 251 or higher (310-19%), then we’ll know that the frenzy is continuing.

The last frenzy happened in 2013, and you can see how it continued into early 2014 with only a 17% drop off.  But by the end of 2014, the frenzy was over – expect the current frenzy to die down by the end of 2021.

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Home Prices in 2021

Bill has his annual forecast on home prices here:

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/12/question-8-for-2021-what-will-happen.html

Here is a snapshot of the forecasts:

(I was reading the previous chart wrong when I said that all were forecasting 7% to 10% appreciation. This is the accurate chart, with the old fuddy-duddies still lagging behind in the safety zone of 2% to 3%)

THE FRENZY IS COMING!

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NSDCC New Sales Records

It looks like we are going to set new records in every category this year – and not by a little!

NSDCC Annual Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
# of $2M+ Sales
2013
3,083
$949,000
41
392
2014
2,904
$1,020,000
47
434
2015
3,104
$1,090,000
47
491
2016
3,104
$1,160,000
47
523
2017
3,088
$1,225,000
30
605
2018
2,814
$1,325,000
23
617
2019
2,838
$1,327,250
26
645
2020
3,027
$1,472,500
19
828

The 2020 numbers are year-to-date.

Based on last December’s count, we should be around 3,180 sales by the end of the year!  It will be the highest number of annual sales ever!

P.S. We did have the identical number of sales in 2015 and 2016.

Rates & Millennials To Fuel Market

2020 was a truly unprecedented year. With it behind us, let’s look ahead at three housing market trends that are likely during the next three years.

First, exceptionally low mortgage rates are likely to be around for an extended period. We expect 30-year fixed-rate loans to remain below 3% during early 2021 and average about 3.2% during the next three years. This would be nearly a percentage point lower than the average over the 2010-2019 decade. These low rates will provide an excellent opportunity for families with good credit to buy or refinance homes.

Second, Millennials will add substantial demand for housing over the next few years. Looking at America’s population by age, the largest numbers of Millennials are those aged 28 to 30. With 33 as the median age of recent first-time buyers, demographic forces will add an important tailwind to home-buying demand.

In fact, we expect home sales relative to the housing stock, a measure of home “turnover”, in 2021 to 2023 to be above the average annual turnover rate of the prior two decades.

Read full article here:

https://www.corelogic.com/blog/2020/12/three-year-housing-and-mortgage-outlook.aspx

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The Trend Towards Larger Homes

Remember when it seemed to make sense that because home prices were escalating, people would be buying smaller homes? Boy, did Covid-19 change that – now the larger homes are driving the market, which suggests that the move-up market has come alive:

(To keep a healthy sample size, let’s combine October and November)

NSDCC Sales and Pricing Over/Under 3,000sf

Oct + Nov
# of Sales Under 3,000sf
Median SP
# of Sales Over 3,000sf
Median SP
2019
265
$1,135,000
204
$1,800,000
2020
362
$1,255,444
320
$2,150,000
% Diff
+37%
+11%
+57%
+19%

Rapidly-increasing prices aren’t slowing down sales….and may be speeding them up!

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Could the increase in larger-home sales be due to more inventory?

No – actually we have had fewer Over-3,000sf homes listed this year than in 2019:

NSDCC Total Listings between Jan-Nov

Jan-Nov
# of Listings Under 3,000sf
# of Listings Over 3,000sf
2019
2,454
2,307
2020
2,273
2,127
% Diff
-7%
-8%

The larger-home sales were already benefiting from multi-gen buyers needing a place for Mom. Add to that demand the move-uppers who may not need a place for Mom yet, but if they sense it might be coming in the near future, then might as well buy bigger now – and maybe get granny to throw in some of her dough!

NSDCC November Sales – Prelim

We are setting all-time records every month now!

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. Cost-per-sf
Median DOM
2014
173
$985,000
$489/sf
34
2015
196
$1,173,750
$518/sf
38
2016
244
$1,235,908
$531/sf
28
2017
220
$1,208,487
$524/sf
27
2018
197
$1,300,000
$566/sf
29
2019
219
$1,345,000
$564/sf
28
2020
288
$1,564,000
$647/sf
12

We’re just getting started too – the final count should be around 320 sales for November, 2020!

Median Sales Price: +16% year-over-year

Average Cost Per SF: +15% year-over-year

Plus, the median days on market is LESS THAN HALF of what’s been normal.

Get Good Help!

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