Let’s use their formula (total sales/total listings) to calculate the NSDCC ratios.
(their ratios were from June, 2020)
NSDCC SFRs Sales/Listings over $1 million
June, 2020: 210/392 = 54%
October, 2020: 300/328 = 91%
We have it good!
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Read article here:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying-a-home-during-coronavirus-11603988728
Here’s the first look at this month’s sales:
NSDCC October Sales & Pricing
| Year | |||
| 2012 | |||
| 2013 | |||
| 2014 | |||
| 2015 | |||
| 2016 | |||
| 2017 | |||
| 2018 | |||
| 2019 | |||
| 2020 |
We are already 7% higher than any previous month, and we still have three days to go plus late-reporters. We should easily hit 350 sales! Pricing is skyrocketing too.
We’re only three days into October so there will still be more reporting in the coming days….but September sales are pouring in! We had 52% more sales than we had last year in the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad market!
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September:
| Year | |||
| 2016 | |||
| 2017 | |||
| 2018 | |||
| 2019 | |||
| 2020 |
Until recently, you could expect that $10 million would buy you an oceanfront home in La Jolla.
But just in the last 30 days there were oceanfront sales of $14,000,000, $16,000,000, and this one in Bird Rock just north of Pacific Beach that sold for $19,250,000:
It’s October!
The La Jolla-Carlsbad market had an incredible September, with sales up 43% YoY, and the median sales price was +10%! We’ll have another 20-30 sales reported in the coming days too.
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September:
| Year | |||
| 2016 | |||
| 2017 | |||
| 2018 | |||
| 2019 | |||
| 2020 |
In September, 2013 we had 275 sales – the most in recent history. We’ll be over 350 this year!
For the second month in a row, 100% of the agents surveyed around San Diego County reported increased pricing, month-over-month. Sales are likely to slow over the next few months due to fewer homes for sale (see the 16.7 drop in Home Listings index) which is supportive of higher pricing too.
An agent last month called it, “panic buying”.
The impending ‘upgrade’ of the MLS starts today at noon, and last until Monday. It will screw up my stats for usual Inventory Watch on Monday morning, so here’s a mid-week preview.
Today there are 491 NSDCC detached-homes in escrow, which the highest number I’ve seen. The huge number of pendings isn’t due to escrows not closing either:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September 1-15
2012: 127
2013: 114
2014: 112
2015: 117
2016: 130
2017: 139
2018: 107
2019: 102
2020: 149
We still have late-reporters too, so this year’s count should get up close to 160!
But you can feel the slowdown coming, and I think it’s purely because there aren’t more houses coming onto the market. We already had the lowest number of August listings in recent history, and the rest of 2020 probably won’t get any better:
Are sellers waiting for the 2021 selling season? Probably! Buyers will be waiting!
Sales has been robust over the last couple of months, and the national pending-home-sales index above shows how we’re just making up for lost time. We don’t have a local PHSI, so let’s look at how the NSDCC closed sales for 2020 have compared to last couple of years:
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan-Aug:
2018: 1,969
2019: 1,928
2020: 1,841
After six months of Covid-19, we’re only 87 sales behind last year!
I bring it up because the doomer-of-the-century chimed in, and I just wanted to present more-current evidence before reading his take on the 2020 market:
https://www.mhanson.com/9-3-housing-rebounds-recoveries-are-two-very-different-things/
He did mention that we got off to a hot start this year, and it can be attributed to the lower mortgage rates. With the Fed saying they are going to ignore inflation, let’s include ultra-low mortgage rates high on our list of why the 2021 Spring Selling Season will likely be craziest market of all-time!
Here is the recent history of August sales of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:
| August, Year | ||
| 2013 | ||
| 2014 | ||
| 2015 | ||
| 2016 | ||
| 2017 | ||
| 2018 | ||
| 2019 | ||
| 2020 |
The 2013 frenzy was a result of the renewed optimism coming out of the last foreclosure crisis – back when most of our sales (57%) were under a million! This August? Only 18% were under a million!
In August 2013, we had 12 sales over $3,000,000. This year? 44!
Plus we still have the late-reporters – we could hit 350!
We still have four days to go this month, so it looks like we’ll be setting new monthly sales records again, just like last month (even with a covid asterisk):
| Town or Area | |||||
| Cardiff | |||||
| NW Carlsbad | |||||
| SE Carlsbad | $1,165,000 | ||||
| NE Carlsbad | |||||
| SW Carlsbad | |||||
| Carmel Valley | |||||
| Del Mar | |||||
| Encinitas | |||||
| La Jolla | |||||
| RSF | |||||
| Solana Beach | |||||
| NSDCC |
I don’t have too much concern about changes to the median sales prices due to the smaller sample sizes, and I doubt there are any buyers out there who would say prices are down.
Last year we had 56 sales over the last four business days of August, so we’ll probably see 300+ this month when it’s all done. Will sales slow a bit towards election day? Only if the supply winds down?
A fun graph of each city’s history of home prices:
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