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Inventory Surging?

This is an example of the hysteria being whipped up by the pseudo-experts. They tend to grab fake data, jump to conclusions, and then spread it everywhere.

Here is the tweet with comments – he says the +31% is the change between March and April:

https://twitter.com/housereports/status/1521952871490621440

I don’t know where he gets his information, but it isn’t from the MLS:

Listings & Sales, Monthly

Location
March Listings
April Listings
% Chg
March Sales
April Sales
% Chg
SD County
3,916
3,780
-3%
3,233
3,053
-6%
NSDCC Detached
281
269
-4%
207
222
+7%

He says the San Diego Listing Inventory surged +31% between March and April, when it actually dropped on the MLS. Why would he say that? I don’t know, but he sells his data now so that may have something to do with it.

I don’t know how he is measuring ‘demand’, but the San Diego County sales did decline 6% between March and April.  But look how close the sales count is to the listing count – we are selling practically everything that comes to market, for pete’s sake.  If the listings decline, so will sales.

Is he talking about the active listings?

This is how it looks on InfoSparks.  The M-o-M change is +7% (last year was +5%), and the actual count of 2,616 active listings in April is bleak compared to previous years (12,652 in April, 2019!):

None of the facts are suggesting an inventory surge in San Diego County.  We would welcome one!

NSDCC Sales & Pricing, April

Last year’s frenzy was crazy because of the volume – there were enough listings to drive sales higher than usual.  This year we don’t have as many listings, and it is driving the pricing to astonishing heights:

NSDCC Sales and Pricing, April

Year
NSDCC Detached-Home Sales
Median LP
Median SP
SP:LP Ratio
2015
284
$1,100,000
$1,077,500
98%
2016
303
$1,157,075
$1,125,000
97%
2017
276
$1,332,500
$1,281,065
96%
2018
270
$1,304,450
$1,285,225
99%
2019
265
$1,399,000
$1,375,000
98%
2020
156
$1,424,499
$1,390,000
98%
2021
359
$1,799,900
$1,825,829
101%
2022
221
$2,395,000
$2,600,000
109%

The median sales price is 42% higher than it was last April.

If listings dry up further, prices could keep rising!

NSDCC 1Q Listings & Sales

The drastic drop in inventory seems devastating, but check out the closed sales:

NSDCC Number of Listings & Sales, First Quarter

Year
NSDCC Total 1Q Listings
Median List Price
1Q Closings
Median Sales Price
2018
1,230
$1,592,500
569
$1,323,000
2019
1,277
$1,575,000
536
$1,290,000
2020
1,082
$1,712,500
572
$1,420,500
2021
985
$1,899,000
663
$1,800,000
2022
704
$2,595,000
504
$2,418,000

Last year was an exceptional frenzy with 663 sales in the first quarter, but look how this year compares to previous years. The 1Q sales in 2022 are fairly close to those in 2018-2020, in spite of fewer choices!

NSDCC March Sales & Pricing

What a wild ride lately! It’s safe to say we’ll never see a March like this again:

NSDCC March Sales & Pricing

Year
March Closings
Median List Price
Median Sales Price
Median Days-On-Market
2015
300
$1,195,000
$1,115,000
48
2016
252
$1,162,500
$1,143,665
50
2017
258
$1,096,500
$1,074,000
45
2018
258
$1,399,000
$1,396,250
16
2019
211
$1,345,000
$1,299,999
17
2020
206
$1,492,500
$1,445,000
12
2021
252
$1,810,000
$1,825,000
10
2022
206
$2,425,000
$2,625,000
9

The median sales price went from $1,445,000 to $2,625,000 in two years – an increase of 82%!

Last month’s median sales price was $200,000 ABOVE the median list price (108%), and it was 10% higher than it was in the previous month.

We are going to have to live with fewer sales from now on.

2022 Stats, La Jolla to Carlsbad

The NSDCC detached-home stats in the Jan 1st-to-March 15th period are remarkable:

Year
New Listings
# of Sales
Median List Price
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
2016
1,194
436
$1,146,450
$1,102,792
58
2017
1,040
459
$1,239,500
$1,200,000
53
2018
1,102
420
$1,327,000
$1,297,000
20
2019
1,056
430
$1,299,499
$1,282,500
29
2020
934
456
$1,467,500
$1,430,000
30
2021
801
534
$1,749,000
$1,775,000
14
2022
546
400
$2,250,000
$2,372,500
10

The 2022 median sales price is 34% higher than in the same period last year (which was +24% above 2020!)

The median sales price is 5.4% higher than the median list price.

Sales are holding their own, in spite of having around half of the ‘normal’ inventory!

San Diego Home Pricing, Tiered

This guy has been drunk on the doom juice for so long that he must never get out of his bunker!

If he did, he would see the overwhelming demand for every new listing, even though underwriting standards are strict and rates are going up. Of the 140 NSDCC sales last month, 36% were all-cash.

https://journal.firsttuesday.us/san-diego-housing-indicators-2/29246/

Here’s what he said in July when the YoY changes were lower:

https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2021/07/08/san-diego-home-pricing-by-tier/

National Price Forecast

Casual observers might think this graph is saying that home prices will drop, but instead it is just the YoY change that is moderating. The MoM changes will become more interesting than the YoY changes over the next 12 months.

Home prices averaged year-over-year gains of 15 percent over the 12 months of 2021 compared to an average gain of 6.0 percent in 2020. CoreLogic’s Home Price Index (HPI) ended the year up 18.5 percent compared to the prior December. Despite indications earlier in the year that price gains were beginning to decelerate, they rose 1.3 percent in December, identical to the monthly gains reported in each of the previous three months. The annual growth is up from 18 percent in September and October.

CoreLogic says, “Consumer desire for homeownership against persistently low supply of for-sale homes created one of the hottest housing markets in decades in 2021 – and spurred record-breaking home price growth. Home price growth in 2021 started off at 10 percent in the first quarter, steadily increasing and ending the year with an increase of 18 percent for the fourth quarter.”

CoreLogic’s price forecast for this year anticipates that appreciation will exceed 10 percent for the first months of the year but will fall steadily to 3.5 percent by December 2022. The annual increases will average 9.6 percent.

The company dismisses questions about whether the nation is currently in a housing bubble. The report says its Market Risk Indicators suggest only a small probability of a nationwide price decline, pointing instead to the larger likelihood that falling prices will be limited to specific, at-risk markets. Those locations with a high probability, over 70 percent, include Prescott and Lake Havasu City-Kingman, Arizona; Merced, California; and Worcester, MA.

“Much of what we’ve seen in the run-up of home prices over the last year has been the result of a perfect storm of supply and demand pressures,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “As we move further into 2022, economic factors – such as new home building and a rise in mortgage rates – are in motion to help relieve some of this pressure and steadily temper the rapid home price acceleration seen in 2021.”

Prices of detached residential properties posted an annual increase of 19.7 percent in December. This was 5.5 percent higher than the appreciation of attached properties at 14.2 percent.

The state with the greatest increase continues to be Arizona at 28.4 percent, It is followed by Florida at 27.1 percent and Utah at 25.2 percent. Two Florida cities, Naples, and Punta Gorda, posted the largest gains among metro areas at 37.6 and 35.7 percent, respectively.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/02012022-corelogic-hpi

The Last Big Frenzy

Has there ever been a precedent to our current housing frenzy? Yes – back in the 2000-2005 era, which a new blogging guy coined, ‘The Golden Age of Real Estate’ (bubbleinfo.com was three months old). Note the S&P Index:

Date: December 25, 2005

The median price of a single-family home in North County, and in California as a whole, has roughly doubled in the last five years. That familiar statistic implies that virtually anyone who bought in 2000 and sold five years later reaped a profit.

California and the rest of the U.S. benefited from low interest rates, enabling people to buy more expensive homes than they otherwise would have been able to afford, said Jim Klinge, a Carlsbad-based Realtor.

And in San Diego County, price increases of about 20 percent a year became expected, encouraging people to buy at any cost, in the expectation of sure profits.

By comparison, other investments didn’t look so good in the aftermath of the collapse of the stock market bubble, which began in 2000. For example, the Standard & Poors index of 500 stocks closed on Nov 1, 2000, at 1,429.40. As of Nov. 1, 2005, the S&P500 closed at 1,202.76. (today it’s at 4,480).

The real estate increases fueled spending by homeowners, who got ready cash from their rising home equity. A strong economy, with lower unemployment than the state and national averages, helped people buy, turning the county into one of the hottest real estate markets in America.

That market cooled down this year, with most months posting only single-digit gains over the same month in 2004. (November, with a 14 percent year-over-year increase in North County single-home median prices, was an exception.)

Real estate professionals have said the slowdown was inevitable since prices, along with factors such as the ratio of monthly mortgage payments to rental payments, have gotten far out of whack. A study by Torto Wheaton Research this year found that San Diego County’s rental-to-buy payment ratio was 40 percent, the lowest of any of the major markets it studied.

“I think we’ll look on these last five years as the golden age of real estate,” Klinge said. “The increases in the median price, both locally and countywide, have been astonishing for Realtors and buyers and sellers alike. We won’t see this again for the foreseeable future.”

But the gains weren’t evenly distributed. Depending on where the home is located, that potential profit varies from marginal —— in percentage terms, but not necessarily in dollars —— to outstanding.

As 2006 is about to begin, Klinge said prospective buyers should think long term. With prices as high as they are, the potential for quick gains that lured “flippers” to buy houses only to sell them a short while later is nearly gone.

With more sellers on the market, the buy-at-all-costs mentality of a short while ago has vanished, Klinge said. Homes will still sell, but at a slower rate and a lower price. Sellers can’t count on big profits, and prices could even fall at times, he said.

“I would say the market is going to be completely driven by buyers buying a house to live in,” Klinge said. “So if you’re going to buy a house, make sure it’s going to last you for years.”

Link to Full Article

NSDCC Annual Sales & Pricing

Let’s do a final round-up of the 2021 numbers:

NSDCC Annual Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Listings
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
Median DOM
# of $2M+ Sales
2013
4,911
3,287
$950,000
54
424
2014
4,794
2,899
$1,020,000
54
434
2015
5,066
3,096
$1,090,000
53
488
2016
5,178
3,107
$1,160,000
53
523
2017
4,637
3,082
$1,225,000
33
606
2018
4,840
2,799
$1,325,000
22
615
2019
4,741
2,827
$1,327,500
25
641
2020
4,494
3,183
$1,482,500
19
885
2021
3,613
3,175
$1,900,000
12
1,469

The median sales price went up 28% YoY, and the number of $2,000,000+ sales went up 66%!

The number of listings is deceiving because listing agents don’t have to refresh their listings any more.  There were 580 expired/cancelled/withdrawn listings in 2021, and the number was 1,888 in 2019 – so the number of properties offered for sale each year were probably more similar than we thought.

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