NSDCC Sales, Jan-Apr

The first third of 2019 has been better than expected. Sales are only 6% below the average for the last five years, and the median sales price hasn’t dropped much:

NSDCC Sales, January – April

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Median DOM
# of Listings
2015
920
$1,130,000
25
1,811
2016
880
$1,124,500
24
1,978
2017
886
$1,200,000
20
1,782
2018
847
$1,316,000
17
1,702
2019
797
$1,300,000
25
1,760

A few more listings this year, but no flood, and limiting sales somewhat just because of the lack of choice. The tight supply keeps everything in check – price swings aren’t as obvious either.

Is This It?

More data released today on pricing trends, and though San Diego didn’t make this chart, we’re probably in the normal range with Los Angeles because our Case-Shiller indicies have been similar (+1.8% vs +1.1% YoY in SD).  Interesting that they call San Francisco ‘undervalued’.

Both the HPI and the Case-Shiller Index were the February readings.  There is optimism that YoY pricing will pick up as the selling season rolls on, but they are predicting that prices will decline from March to April, which is unusual:

Looking ahead, after some initial moderation in early 2019, the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates home prices will begin to pick up and increase by 4.8% on a year-over-year basis from March 2019 to March 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to decrease by 0.3% from March 2019 to April 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

These guys don’t make their data public. Using the Case-Shiller Index instead, we see that the last time we had a drop between March and April was in 2009, at the bottom:

Zillow is predicting virtually-flat MoM results too.

Flat pricing during the prime selling season, and after we had six months of declines at the end of 2018?  Could this be where we top out, exactly ten years later?

If you’re thinking of selling, contact me today!

Link to Press Release

NSDCC April Sales

There are more soundbites about sales and pricing being down overall, but the market for detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad is hanging in there.

There was an extra business day this year, and there will be more sales reported over the next few days – if those two balance each other out, we’re only about 5% under last year’s sales count, and the pricing trend is higher:

Year
# of Sales
Median SP
Avg. $$-per-sf
Avg. DOM
2016
307
$1,120,000
$518/sf
40
2017
279
$1,282,131
$535/sf
44
2018
272
$1,285,225
$567/sf
40
2019
257
$1,350,000
$585/sf
44

Angelo Mozilo said he never saw a soft landing, but if mortgage rates stay close to 4% and sellers can live with the same price as the last guy got, then this might be the first soft landing in history.

The selling season should hold its own, and it will be the off-season where we could see more dramatic swings due to less volume.

NSDCC Monthly Closed Sales, 2019

The NSDCC closed sales got off to a hot start in 2019!

But by March 4th, pendings had stalled and were 19% under last year’s total.  Now that stall pattern is playing out in the March closings too:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Changes:

Year
2018
2019
% chg
January
151
151
-0-
February
164
174
+6%
March
259
203
-22%

But the recent flurry of activity has us catching up.  The pendings count today is only six behind the count on April 2nd of last year (340 vs 346).

The published March sales counts are going to be disappointing, even if we have a bunch of late-reporters. But the April/May sales should be healthier!

It’s Really Go Time Now!

Mortgage rates have continued their slide, and lenders should be offering fixed-rate loans with rates starting in the threes again, with little or no points!  The new pendings are flowing, but we still haven’t seen a flood of new listings:

NSDCC Detached-Home Listings and Sales in March

Year
March Listings
Median LP
March Sales
Median SP
2015
497
$1,275,000
298
$1,137,500
2016
532
$1,470,000
252
$1,143,665
2017
505
$1,395,000
258
$1,074,000
2018
446
$1,549,000
259
$1,397,500
2019
396
$1,514,497
153
$1,320,000

The latest numbers are month-to-date, and will increase considerably with four business days to go.  But the March sales will end up well under last year’s count, though the lower rates should help boost sales in April and May.

There are threes on the street:

For those who want to prepare for making an offer and would like to review our contracts, the California Association of Realtors have made available a sample copy with explanations:

https://www.car.org/riskmanagement/Consumer-RPA

Don’t be surprised if it’s a little clunky.

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