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Seller’s Market Defined

Let’s use their formula (total sales/total listings) to calculate the NSDCC ratios.

(their ratios were from June, 2020)

NSDCC SFRs Sales/Listings over $1 million

June, 2020: 210/392 = 54%

October, 2020: 300/328 = 91%

We have it good!

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Read article here:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying-a-home-during-coronavirus-11603988728

October Sales & Pricing, Preliminary

Here’s the first look at this month’s sales:

NSDCC October Sales & Pricing

Year
# of Sales
Avg $$/sf
Median SP
2012
189
$382/sf
$765,000
2013
276
$494/sf
$961,750
2014
263
$463/sf
$965,000
2015
234
$473/sf
$1,055,000
2016
283
$523/sf
$1,075,000
2017
262
$533/sf
$1,194,250
2018
241
$569/sf
$1,380,000
2019
247
$605/sf
$1,400,000
2020
304
$660/sf
$1,633,500

We are already 7% higher than any previous month, and we still have three days to go plus late-reporters. We should easily hit 350 sales! Pricing is skyrocketing too.

More NSDCC September Sales

We’re only three days into October so there will still be more reporting in the coming days….but September sales are pouring in!  We had 52% more sales than we had last year in the La Jolla-to-Carlsbad market!

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September:

Year
Sept. # Sales
Med SP
Med $/sf
2016
271
$1,175,000
$417/sf
2017
271
$1,237,500
$448/sf
2018
220
$1,312,500
$493/sf
2019
234
$1,361,500
$488/sf
2020
355
$1,475,000
$518/sf

Until recently, you could expect that $10 million would buy you an oceanfront home in La Jolla.

But just in the last 30 days there were oceanfront sales of $14,000,000, $16,000,000, and this one in Bird Rock just north of Pacific Beach that sold for $19,250,000:

NSDCC September Sales, Preliminary

It’s October!

The La Jolla-Carlsbad market had an incredible September, with sales up 43% YoY, and the median sales price was +10%! We’ll have another 20-30 sales reported in the coming days too.

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September:

Year
Sept. # Sales
Med SP
Med $/sf
2016
271
$1,175,000
$417/sf
2017
271
$1,237,500
$448/sf
2018
220
$1,312,500
$493/sf
2019
234
$1,361,500
$488/sf
2020
334
$1,493,250
$517/sf

In September, 2013 we had 275 sales – the most in recent history. We’ll be over 350 this year!

NSDCC September Preview

The impending ‘upgrade’ of the MLS starts today at noon, and last until Monday. It will screw up my stats for usual Inventory Watch on Monday morning, so here’s a mid-week preview.

Today there are 491 NSDCC detached-homes in escrow, which the highest number I’ve seen.  The huge number of pendings isn’t due to escrows not closing either:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, September 1-15

2012: 127

2013: 114

2014: 112

2015: 117

2016: 130

2017: 139

2018: 107

2019: 102

2020: 149

We still have late-reporters too, so this year’s count should get up close to 160!

But you can feel the slowdown coming, and I think it’s purely because there aren’t more houses coming onto the market.  We already had the lowest number of August listings in recent history, and the rest of 2020 probably won’t get any better:

Are sellers waiting for the 2021 selling season? Probably! Buyers will be waiting!

NSDCC Sales, Jan-Aug

Sales has been robust over the last couple of months, and the national pending-home-sales index above shows how we’re just making up for lost time. We don’t have a local PHSI, so let’s look at how the NSDCC closed sales for 2020 have compared to last couple of years:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, Jan-Aug:

2018: 1,969

2019: 1,928

2020: 1,841

After six months of Covid-19, we’re only 87 sales behind last year!

I bring it up because the doomer-of-the-century chimed in, and I just wanted to present more-current evidence before reading his take on the 2020 market:

https://www.mhanson.com/9-3-housing-rebounds-recoveries-are-two-very-different-things/

He did mention that we got off to a hot start this year, and it can be attributed to the lower mortgage rates. With the Fed saying they are going to ignore inflation, let’s include ultra-low mortgage rates high on our list of why the 2021 Spring Selling Season will likely be craziest market of all-time!

 

NSDCC August Sales

Here is the recent history of August sales of detached-homes between La Jolla and Carlsbad:

August, Year
# of Sales
Median Sales Price
2013
324
$953,750
2014
246
$1,050,000
2015
278
$1,030,000
2016
288
$1,199,500
2017
279
$1,245,000
2018
276
$1,320,000
2019
264
$1,354,500
2020
334
$1,410,996

The 2013 frenzy was a result of the renewed optimism coming out of the last foreclosure crisis – back when most of our sales (57%) were under a million! This August? Only 18% were under a million!

In August 2013, we had 12 sales over $3,000,000. This year? 44!

Plus we still have the late-reporters – we could hit 350!

NSDCC August Sales – Preliminary

We still have four days to go this month, so it looks like we’ll be setting new monthly sales records again, just like last month (even with a covid asterisk):

Town or Area
Zip Code
# of Sales, 2019 
Median SP
# of Sales, 2020 (so far)
Median SP
Cardiff
92007
11
$1,375,000
13
$1,625,000
NW Carlsbad
92008
23
$985,000
20
$1,094,500
SE Carlsbad
92009
37
$1,107,000
47
$1,165,000
NE Carlsbad
92010
6
$807,500
7
$955,000
SW Carlsbad
92011
19
$1,100,000
20
$1,072,500
Carmel Valley
92130
47
$1,310,000
29
$1,362,500
Del Mar
92014
15
$2,100,000
11
$1,720,000
Encinitas
92024
46
$1,492,500
37
$1,545,000
La Jolla
92037
36
$2,474,000
33
$2,015,000
RSF
67+91
19
$3,100,000
30
$2,762,500
Solana Beach
92075
9
$1,900,000
5
$2,275,000
NSDCC
All Above
264
$1,354,500
247
$1,400,000

I don’t have too much concern about changes to the median sales prices due to the smaller sample sizes, and I doubt there are any buyers out there who would say prices are down.

Last year we had 56 sales over the last four business days of August, so we’ll probably see 300+ this month when it’s all done. Will sales slow a bit towards election day? Only if the supply winds down?

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