Kate’s New Listing

Impeccable and chic, this incredible gated custom Encinitas estate offers modern living in a central location and a life of leisure. An entertainers paradise bursting with a luxurious and smart design, the home comes complete with its own detached guest house retreat. Across its 1.24-acre lot, discover winding pathways lined by manicured grounds, lush landscaping, and palm trees outlining the perimeter. Admire the tasteful fusion of massive windows, stone, stucco, and IPE wood design elements characterizing its exterior, inviting you to explore inside. Upon passing through the captivating, covered entry, step into an immaculately crafted interior defined by soaring ceilings accentuated by thick wood beams, beautifully matching the exceptional millwork on show. Appreciate the gorgeous, engineered wide-plank white oak flooring and crisp white tones. Multiple windows with custom treatments allow radiant sunlight across the casual and formal gathering areas, creating fabulous spots for entertaining. From the sunlit great room with a sophisticated fireplace to the dining room that basks in stylish lighting’s glow, plenty of extravagances await your lucky guests. Newly remodeled to please the most discerning of cooks, the chef’s kitchen highlights Gaggenau and Miele appliances with a steam oven, quartz countertops, matte black cabinetry, and an oversized island.

Relax in the well-sized bedrooms, topped by a grand primary suite graced by its own fireplace and double walk-in closets. Escape the day’s stresses in its renovated, spa-like ensuite with heated floors, a soaking tub, and a large shower. Whether you’re hosting get-togethers or spending your weekends leisurely, you’ll have an array of bonus rooms, including a game room, sports areas, and a gym. Among the best places to relish the breathtaking ocean panoramas are the balconies, each overlooking a unique angle of spectacular scenery. For a resort-style outdoor experience, the fully fenced backyard treats you to a 13′ saltwater pool!

Rates Are Steady

Will the 30-yr jumbo rate stay in the 5s? Here’s what MND says:

Excitement, volatility, non-stop action… concepts that have absolutely nothing to do with mortgage rate movement over the course of the past two weeks.  In fact, since rates plummeted in response to the November 10th CPI data, they’ve been as flat as we’ve seen in 2022.

This is the goal for financial markets and mortgage rates as they traverse a time frame like the Thanksgiving holiday, but it’s also a byproduct of relevant events.  Specifically, inflation data dominates the landscape.  It was no surprised to see a big reaction to the CPI data 2.5 weeks ago, and markets may largely be waiting for the next installment before the next substantial shift in rates.

This doesn’t mean rates will remain as flat as they have been–only that they may resist moving too far in either direction until they have more guidance from economic data and the Fed.  This week will bring some of that economic data, but the next CPI report arrives on December 13th followed a day later by the next Fed announcement.

Fed speakers were making the rounds today reminding markets that there are more rate hikes to come.  The Fed sees the strength of the jobs market as providing a cushion to be aggressive in its fight against inflation.

While the Fed will almost certainly continue to hike rates on the 14th (probably by 0.50%), financial markets have long since baked that assumption into current trading levels.  That means today’s mortgage rates already account for the current Fed Funds Rate forecasts.

Even then, the Fed Funds Rate doesn’t dictate mortgage rates and is an imperfect indicator for rate momentum. Longer term rates like mortgages and 10yr Treasury yields typically begin falling sooner and by larger amounts in any given rate cycle. The past few weeks could be the first phase of that typical pattern (10yr Treasuries have dropped 0.30% versus 2yr Treasuries since then), but again, the continuation of that pattern depends on confirmation from upcoming inflation data.


Carmel Valley Deal

6065 African Holly trail, San Diego 92130

3 br + loft/2.5 ba, 2,408sf

YB: 2006

HOA + MR = $543/mo.

LP = $1,599,000 – Pending!

Check out this attractively-priced Portico home with fully remodeled kitchen, LVP-hardwood floors, 3 bedrooms + loft and downstairs den, sumptuous primary suite with two walk-in closets, and upstairs laundry room. New paint and carpet, private yard, and cool front porch to watch the balloons go by! Live here and send your kids to Solana Ranch Elementary School – verified with the school district. The pool/clubhouse is like a 5-star resort! This home is a good distance away from Carmel Valley Road too. This same model sold for $2,086,000 on May 9th.

San Diego Pool Home with View

Check out this practically-new single-story house at the end of the culdesac with gorgeous canyon and sunset views! Thoroughly renovated with new kitchen and baths, new windows, new flooring & painted inside and out – this is move-in ready! High ceilings, central air, sparkling pool & spa, and new exterior/landscaping. Great schools too! Filled with natural light, this gem provides the upscale yet casual lifestyle at a very reasonable price!

6217 Oakridge Rd., San Diego 92120

4br/2ba, 2,065sf

YB: 1973

LP = $995,000

LP = $1,265,000!

Inventory Watch

After staying around 400 since the middle of September, the number of active listings finally plunged by 6% as the holiday season finally set in.  Yet, the number of pendings rose by 9%!

There were also more new pendings than new listings this past week.

The list prices are probably as low as they will be for the next six months. It would take a very sluggish spring selling season for pricing to collapse in the second half of 2023.  Until then, sellers will be confident that they will beat the odds and sell for at least as much as they can get today.


More Than 10% Off

I said on the Frenzy Cruise that I’d also recognize the NSDCC sales that closed well under their list price.  It’s good for potential sellers to see how buyers will lowball homes that have been on the market for a while – and encouraging for buyers to know that they might be able to get a deal if they play the game wisely.

These are sales from November, with percentages off their original list price:

































There have been 94 NSDCC closings in November (so far), and 34% have been discounted by a double-digit percentage off the original list price – which isn’t too bad, given the negativity everywhere.  It happens at all price points too.

Two conclusions from the clusters in graph below:

  1. Once a home has been on the market for 30-40 days, sellers are ready to deal.
  2. Sellers who go beyond 100 days on the market are really taking a chance.


There were 13 of the 32 sales who ‘refreshed’ their listing, or had it on the market this year with a different agent – those DOM are not reflected here. There were quite a few at the -8% and -9% too.

Five of the 32 were round-tripped.

Because it is unethical to deliberately list a home for sale at an unrealistic price, it means that in a third of the cases, the listing agents just flat-out got the price wrong by a double-digit percentage.  Can you imagine if doctors, lawyers, stockbrokers, plumbers, or burger-flippers were wrong a third of the time?

Get Good Help!

Slowing in San Diego

Our friends at JB have been on the forefront of market tracking for years now. They have staff that travels around the country to gather data from builders in particular, and have built a tremendous network.

I don’t mind being labeled as ‘slowing’ because…..well, I guess it beats falling!

Their definition of Slowing:

Markets in the Slowing phase face alarming affordability levels, decelerating (or even declining) home price appreciation, and rapidly slowing sales—making capital investments less attractive. Several of these slowing markets were among the first to recover from the initial COVID panic in April 2020.

    • In-migration and job growth, fueled by the proliferation of work-from-home policies, set these markets apart as higher wage workers relocated due to the relative affordability—most notably DallasJacksonville, and Raleigh-Durham.
    • Current employment is well above prior peak levels in all of these markets. While strong job growth from high-wage sectors has buoyed these markets, it has also been the primary driver of their now strained affordability, with a significant number of locals now completely priced out of ownership.
    • YOY home price growth is decelerating rapidly, and construction volumes are pulling back from very high levels.

    Their business focus is tilted towards builders and new homes, but their analyses about the general market conditions are applicable to the resale market too.


    Each area will have several variables that makes it unique, but we are a society that wants to label everything with one word. I have one word for you – auction. If an auction company took over real estate, we wouldn’t need opinions, analyses, or realtors!

Thank You!

Thank you for the tremendous support!  You generously bought 65 pies and donated another $3,300 to the cause. It will allow Mama’s Kitchen to provide 2,017 medically-tailored meals to San Diegans who are vulnerable to malnutrition due to critical illness.

A special thanks to Brian for donating $1,000!

We are eternally grateful for your support.

Turkey Talking Points

Yesterday I was delivering pies throughout North County, and visiting with our great supporters – who were mostly past clients.  Predictably, the conversation turns to real estate, and observations about what’s going on in the market, now and in the future.

In case the subject comes up at your Thanksgiving, here are things we discussed:

  • Sales are down, but they aren’t zero.  There are roughly 400 houses for sale between La Jolla and Carlsbad, and the vast majority have been languishing on the market.  But at least 100 of them find a way to close escrow every month – and they tend to be the spectacular homes that are priced attractively.
  • Sales are being hampered by the light inventory.  The number of listings are 40% lower than in 2019, and next year I expect there will be the same or fewer homes for sale as sellers decide to wait until the “market gets better”.

  • Mortgage rates in the 5s are tolerable, and above that is problematic. Higher rates don’t only make homes less affordable – they also cause buyers to have a psychological expectation that sellers should come off their price.  The higher rates go, the more standoff there will be between buyers and sellers.
  • To get deals, the buyers have to cause them – and they are happening. We saw how two sales near my latest listing knocked off more than 10%, and here’s another one from yesterday:
  • I am re-examining one of my favorite seller slogans from many years ago; I’m Not Giving It Away.  Back when potential sellers had little, if any, equity, they would fight like crazy just to make sure they came out of escrow with at least enough for a steak dinner.  But everyone has gobs of equity now….and those who need to move bad enough are giving up decent chunks of it.  It means we could have a much faster decline in pricing than ever before.
  • I am still convinced that by March/April, the spring selling season will kick in and homes will be selling briskly for all the money. It’s likely that we’ll get off to a slow start as both sellers and buyers wait for someone else to go first, but by the end of March or April we will see bidding wars again.
  • Realtors are woefully ill-equipped to handle these conditions.  They have no strategies for a soft market and are very reluctant to price aggressively or reduce a list price properly.  Here is a discussion of typical agent comments.

The blog is picking up momentum, which hopefully means more people are looking to get better-educated about the market conditions, which is encouraging:

Thank you for being here!  I appreciate all of you and Happy Thanksgiving!

Try out Grandma Klinge’s pumpkin bread (mastered by Natalie) from the Compass cookbook:

Mortgage Rates Today

Today’s rates with no points

The Spring Selling Season could get a real boost if mortgage rates stay in the 5s.

The Fed has been telegraphing their intentions for months now, and at this point, there can’t be anyone who thinks the Fed won’t keep raising their Fed Funds rate – at least for their next two meetings. Mortgage lenders have to be pricing in the anticipated future increases, yes?

After some tepid inflation news last week, mortgage rates came down a 1/2%, and they have stayed there, which makes me think that there was already too much buffer priced in – and there has to be some extra left knowing that the Fed has more work to do.

But just in case, go out and buy a house today so you can get a 5-something rate!

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