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This is my 748th blog post of the year! (641 published and 107 drafts)

Let’s note how drastic things have changed since rates went up:

NSDCC Detached-Home Sales, December

2012: 297

2013: 223

2014: 255

2015: 259

2016: 241

2017: 225

2018: 196

2019: 229

2020: 290

2021: 183

2022:  95

The best forecasting tool is the number of sales.

Look at how crazy-high the number of sales were in 2012 and 2020.  In both cases, the demand had been building up and it really cut loose late in the fourth quarter – in spite of the holidays – to close a third more sales than normal (the average count of the other nine years is 212 sales).  Then the two biggest frenzies in history broke out in the following spring.

The number of December sales can help us predict what is coming – and it doesn’t look good for 2023!

We will get our 100 sales once everyone reports their closings, but it’s HALF of the average count.

This year was terrible for many, if not most, agents, and about the best we can say is that we survived.  It’s going to get worse in 2023 because there aren’t enough sales to go around.  The conditions next year will force many agents into early retirement – why keep paying your dues if there’s not much hope?

You can’t ignore the current predicament and keep doing the same things you’ve done the last 5-10 years.  You gotta do better. The industry has to do better.

Here are my 2023 requests of agents:

  1. Publish relevant data that’s easy for consumers to digest. Come up with something juicy that makes a difference, instead of the usual agent blather we see on social media. Printing the number of sales is good, but also add your opinion on what it means – the audience wants hear your interpretation of the data and they will spend a minute or two to get it.
  2. Make it easy to show your listings. If you employ the same hurdles from the frenzy days – like insisting that I send my buyers’ financials just to schedule a showing – then you should pay us more commission to compensate for the hassle.
  3. Will you provide buyers and agents with a walk-through video of your listings please? Let’s preview the homes in advance by video, which will save your time if it isn’t a fit. Adding helpful tips or witty remarks are great, but they are not required. Put the video link in the listing remarks – which is still allowed by the MLS.  I don’t see many Matterport 3D tours or any video tours, do you? Let’s upgrade!

We will be having HALF the normal number of sales in the early months of 2023. If we’re not doing it better, then these conditions will persist, and could go on for years.

Every day, we are getting closer to the end.  Let’s give it everything we got!

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