Home Seller Survey

An excerpt from Zillow’s seller survey:

With the rollout of vaccines against COVID-19, 70% of homeowners in a recent Zillow survey say they would feel mostly or completely comfortable moving to a new home when vaccines are widely distributed — and 78% of homeowners who say widespread vaccine distribution would impact their decision to move say such distribution would makes them more likely to move.

“We expect that the vaccine rollout will likely boost inventory, as sellers become increasingly willing to move despite COVID-19 — resulting in greater numbers of new listings beginning this spring,” says Chris Glynn, principal economist at Zillow. “That injection of inventory could give buyers more options and breathing room in a competitive market. The vaccine, however, will also likely add to already-strong demand, given that most sellers will become buyers as they trade in for a home that better suits their new needs.”

Zillow research shows that 63% of sellers are also buyers. And, as buyers, they have specific reasons for selling. A recent Zillow survey shows that homeowners who are thinking of selling in the next three years have a variety of reasons for doing so.

Additionally, 26% want to live closer to family, 24% wanted out from being responsible for yard work, 14% say their family or household is getting larger and 13% say they can no longer afford their home.

Nearly 40% of homeowners who are considering selling within three years (39%) say they think they’ll get a better price if they wait. They’re not necessarily wrong — although waiting comes with tradeoffs, according to Zillow economist Jeff Tucker.

“Potential sellers are likely correct that home prices have yet to reach their peak,’’ Tucker said, “but in the long run prices tend to rise, so there’s no clear ‘right time’ to sell.”

The catch, he said, is that waiting to sell may raise the cost of trading up to their next home if mortgage interest rates rise.

https://www.zillow.com/agent-resources/blog/potential-sellers-gaining-confidence/

Inventory Watch

This might have been the week that the frenzy peaked.

Last week:

Actives: 334

Pendings: 362

This week:

Actives: 357

Pendings: 344

It’s only one week, but it did seem like there were quite a few escrows that fell out which would be the primary cause of the shift.  Let’s not jump to too many conclusions just yet – let’s see how the counts play out over the next couple of weeks.

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Solutions for Potential Sellers

The real estate market is red-hot, prices are higher than ever and buyers are begging for inventory!

Many homeowners want to take advantage of this opportunity but are worried where they’ll go next. It’s a tough market to be a buyer, but this shouldn’t discourage you from selling your home for the highest price ever – AND we can help! Here are a few solutions:

1. Longer escrow. Gives you time to secure your next home.

2. Rent back. In the past six months, we have arranged rentbacks of 3-6 months for our sellers!

3. Sell your home contingent upon buying. We can lock your home’s buyer and price, and then go shopping!

4. Move in with relatives for a bit. Nothing like some quality family time!

5. Buy your next home first – using a Compass bridge loan. Go for maximum convenience!

6. Find a short term rental in the area. Spending the summer in a beach house doesn’t sound that bad.

Don’t miss out on the GREATEST REAL ESTATE FRENZY OF ALL TIME!

Call or text Jim at 858-997-3801.

The Blue Lagoon

940 Pearl, San Elijo Hills

5 br/7 ba, 4,998sf

YB: 2014

SP = $2,249,000 (we represented the buyers)

Welcome to one-of-a-kind luxury living at it’s finest behind the gated community of The Estates in San Elijo Hills. As seen in Wall Street Journal & New York Times with style and unique custom details, this 5-Star oasis is like nothing you have ever imagined. No expense spared on this stunning estate home featuring 5 bedrooms and 7 bathrooms with just under 5,000 sq ft of living space, you must see to appreciate the attention to detail & craftsmanship in this luxurious home. No detail has been overlooked or expense spared in the creation of what can only be described as a residential masterpiece. Even before you step inside, the grand facade and courtyard entry with a fountain set the tone for this one-of-a-kind home that’ll surely take your breath away. The same sense of elegance continues inside with generous living spaces that feel opulent, yet comfortable and inviting. You’ll love preparing meals in the gourmet kitchen with custom stone counters, stainless steel appliances that include double dishwashers and ovens, breakfast bar, generous pantry and gorgeous cabinetry. Your private west-facing master retreat offers dual custom closets and two water closets, while each bedroom has its own bathroom, including the separate private casita with it’s own entrance. Multiple fireplaces throughout add a cozy ambience, and a true sense of luxury! Then step outside to experience a tropical paradise that took three years and nearly a million dollars to create!

(The way we looked at it, our buyers got a $750,000 backyard for free!)

Double Up!

This is a good example of how prices are popping in Olde Carlsbad.

This sold for $675,000 in 2014, and listed last month for $1,149,000.

It closed this week for $1,385,000, which is 21% over list.

The price more than doubled in less than seven years!

Inventory Correction

On Monday, I got my two counts backwards for 2020 & 2021, which made it look like the number of new listings was picking up.

But it was wrong – here is today’s counts of new listings in the first quarter:

New NSDCC Listings in the First Quarter:

2017: 1,296

2018: 1,230

2019: 1,278

2020: 1,081

2021: 931

If we’re usually around 1,250 new listings in the first quarter, then in 2021 we are 25% under normal – which would push for a stronger seller’s market in any given year.  But with demand increasing at the same time, it’s a wild mix.

There is more desperation among the buyers who don’t have a house here yet – they are struggling just to get a piece of the pie. It limits how many existing homeowners can move up or down, because they are always comparing homes and prices to what they already have.  Without those existing homeowners moving, it’s restricting the supply mostly to just those who are willing to leave town – which we’re finding isn’t as many people as needed.

95 Units

The City Council has already approved this project so the public discussion is over.

But it’s interesting to note that the owner of this 7.2-acre parcel – who also owns the shopping center next door – chose to re-zone the property for apartments, instead of office space. Did they figure that rents in SE Carlsbad would keep accelerating while office rents have been stagnant, at best? Or did the developer want to supplement the attendance of his family-friendly shopping center next door? Probably both.

https://thecoastnews.com/carlsbad-approves-95-housing-units-at-la-costa-town-square/


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