More Places to Move

We’re sending people off to Oregon and to Prescott, Arizona this week, and in both cases it seemed like it will now take $400,000+ to buy a decent home. The new residents of Prescott said it’s filling up fast with Californians, and many long-time San Diego police and fire professionals have been heading that way to retire.  Here are other choices that might be less expensive:

Forget the gleaming, high-rise towers in the nation’s most glamorous cities and those sprawling, palm tree–ringed residences with killer ocean views. Today’s hottest housing is located in towns and small cities that aren’t usually a part of the national conversation.

The realtor.com® economics team identified the 10 hottest ZIP codes in the country where demand is surging and homes are flying off the market—sometimes within hours of being listed. These places tend to offer cheaper homes, or less expensive prices per square foot for those seeking more spacious abodes, than the rest of their respective suburbs—which themselves are bargains compared with the nearby cities.

Top 10 Hottest ZIP codes in the U.S.

1. Colorado Springs, CO (80911)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $306,500
Median list price within the city limits: $455,050

2. Reynoldsburg, OH (43068)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $193,450
Median list price within the city limits: $193,450

3. Rochester, NY (14617)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $162,450
Median list price within the city limits: $158,950

4. Melrose, MA (02176)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $644,950
Median list price within the city limits: $644,950

5. South Portland, ME (04106)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $350,050
Median list price within the city limits: $350,050

6. Topeka, KS (66614)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $159,500
Median list price within the city limits: $132,500

7. Hudson, NH (03051)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $440,000
Median list price within the city limits: $440,000

8. Worcester, MA (01602)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $329,950
Median list price within the city limits: $315,050

9. Springfield, VA (22152)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $509,950
Median list price within the city limits: $549,950

10. Raleigh, NC (27604)
Median list price in the ZIP code: $287,950
Median list price within the city limits: $519,800

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/2020-hottest-neighborhoods-zip-codes/

Carmel Valley Lexington Plan 3

I’m lucky to have such great clients who do the most effective and popular upgrades that turn their home into a premium showplace!  Ideally situated on one of the best view lots in CV, this fully-renovated masterpiece has everything – TWO bedroom-suites downstairs, wide-plank hardwoods, designer kitchen, low fees, no road noise and no power lines!

Enjoy one of the best views in the 92130 too!

5278 Brittany Forrest, San Diego, CA 92130

6 br/5.5 ba, 4,687sf

YB: 2000

HOA + MR fees = $156/month

SP = $2,200,000 (we represented the sellers)

Tomorrow is the grand opening of the last PHR tract, and the base models are going out at $1,939,000 to $2,649,000 and add more $$ for window coverings and landscape (plus HOA + MR = $500+). Wait for months until they are done, or buy in the Del Mar school district on a quiet, private culdesac with premium view and without the congestion!


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5728-Brittany-Forrest-Ln-San-Diego-CA-92130/48180332_zpid/

Looking Deeper At A Home’s Value

When the internet took over the real estate business 20+ years ago, the dumbing-down of the valuations began.  Now that we are making life-changing decisions based on split-second exposure to imagery from a hand-held device, the process has gone binary – a quick yes or no, without much other consideration.

It’s not just the buyers – realtors do it too.

When searching my new listing in Carmel Valley, the first comparable sale that pops up is this model-match that sold for 16% less in May:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/5414-Shannon-Ridge-Ln-92130/home/4521993

The possibility that somebody got a deal in Carmel Valley doesn’t even occur to us, and because we’re accustomed to making snap decisions, just the price disparity alone will cause most to swipe to the next listing – and not give it another thought.

Let’s look deeper, shall we? There are three ways to evaluate what happened:

What is the neighborhood history?  We’ve been having record-setting prices everywhere this year, and in most neighborhoods, the last sale is the highest sale ever.  Is the $1,880,000 the highest sale ever in the Lexington tract?   The answer is NO.  There have been 15 sales higher than $1,880,000, including the previous $1,900,000 sale on Shannon Ridge that was across the street, on the non-view side.  Nine sales have closed above $2,000,000, with the highest being $2,350,000.  My list price of $2,250,000 is within reason.

What was the condition of the comp?  Those who are used to examining the MLS photos will notice right away that the condition of 5414 Shannon Ridge was all original, which are the homes that struggle to sell these days.

What was the listing history?  Shannon Ridge first listed for $2,195,000 in June, 2019.  The listing agent refreshed the listing three times will gradual price reductions, and in April, 2020 the price was down to $2,095,000.  According to the listing agent, they had shown the home 190 TIMES, so they had to think they were close, but the covid had just hit and they had to be exhausted from so many showings. They lowered the price to $1,995,000, and the next day took $1,880,000 – a drop of $215,000 within 24 hours.

There we have a good explanation of why they dumped on price (original condition and covid freak-out), and why it’s a one-off.

Will buyers today be willing to look deeper than one bad comp?

I think so – we received the first offer last night!

The pro video:

Inventory Watch – Trickle Up!

In previous years, the action is winding down by mid-August.

Not this year!

We’ve seen more pendings than actives in the lower price ranges. This week it happened for the first time in the $1,500,000 – $2,000,000 range:

NSDCC Actives and Pendings

Price Range
Active Listings
Avg. LP/sf
Pending Listings
Avg LP/sf
$0-$1.0M
28
$533/sf
67
$506/sf
$1.0M-$1.5M
113
$608/sf
158
$518/sf
$1.5M-$2.0M
123
$714/sf
126
$630/sf
$2.0M-$3.0M
137
$823/sf
87
$729/sf

Let’s note the differences.

Last year at this time, we had 199 actives and 79 pendings between $1,500,000 – $2,000,000.

On June 1st, we had 162 actives and 76 pendings.

Now it’s 123 vs. 126!

(more…)

Getting Into Real Estate Sales

Generally speaking, the realtor community is a nice bunch of folks who welcome newcomers into the business and offer encouragement…….while muttering under our breath, ‘They have no idea what they are getting themselves into’.

New agents bounce around like a pinball for a year or so, while the business is happening to them.  The more hours invested, the quicker the education, and the potential is truly unlimited.  It’s why agents stick it out as long as they can, in hopes of success being right around the corner. But seven out of eight don’t make it.

Last week we talked about getting your license first.

Next, recognize the hard truths about the business so you can position yourself accordingly:

The majority of your sales will involve another realtor you don’t know, and most of them won’t share your selling skills or desire to succeed. You want/need to be a chameleon and meet them on their level – and you will learn something every time.

You want to spend money on your business. Keep an eye out for the best options.

Get comfortable with failure – it happens a lot.  You’ll learn to live with losing fair-and-square, but there will be multiple times that the human condition will disappoint you. The majority of the time it’s inadvertent; where agents get in such a rush to sell something they forget about everyone else, including you and their seller.

Listings are the name of the game. If you want to minimize the negative impact of the things above, then concentrate on getting listings and everything else will take care of themselves.

Bressi Ranch Over List

When we followed Jenae and her scammers during the last foreclosure crisis, they had convinced amateur investors in Bressi Ranch to borrow most or all of the sales price – Countrywide was willing to finance 100% to virtually anyone in 2007 – and then rent out the homes until they go up in value.

We thought it was far-fetched because the monthly payment was well above the market rents, but they were bumping the purchase prices to include up to $100,000 kickbacks from the sellers for a slush fund to cover the negative cash flow (but went into the scammers’ pockets instead).  They paid $1,100,000 to $1,300,000 for houses like this one, but as prices started to weaken, they all bailed out.

If they would have just hung in there until now, the idea would have worked!

Carmel Valley Lexington Plan 3 View!!

I’m lucky to have such great clients who do the most effective and popular upgrades that turn their home into a premium showplace!  Ideally situated on one of the best view lots in CV, this fully-renovated masterpiece has everything – TWO bedroom-suites downstairs, wide-plank hardwoods, designer kitchen, low fees, no road noise and no power lines!

Enjoy one of the best views in the 92130 too!

5278 Brittany Forrest, San Diego, CA 92130

6 br/5.5 ba, 4,687sf

YB: 2000

HOA + MR fees = $156/month

LP = $2,250,000 (we represent the sellers)

Tomorrow is the grand opening of the last PHR tract, and the base models are going out at $1,939,000 to $2,649,000 and add more $$ for window coverings and landscape (plus HOA + MR = $500+). Wait for months until they are done, or buy in the Del Mar school district on a quiet, private culdesac with premium view and without the congestion!


https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5728-Brittany-Forrest-Ln-San-Diego-CA-92130/48180332_zpid/

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