How much inventory is too much? We've had 12% more NSDCC listings this year than in the first nine months of 2012, and stoked by ultra-low rates, the extra inventory helped build sales momentum. Comparing the nine-month totals, sales increased 10% this year, and...
Year: 2013
Psychological Shift, or Seasonal?
Mozart says that the recent hockey-stick change in the data is merely seasonal, and he expects 7.20% more appreciation in the next 12 months around NSDCC - and he has been right before. This graph would seem to indicate the same - just the usual malaise we see at the...
Housing Appreciation 2014 Forecast
Reader 'Native sd' asked, What do you think the appreciation will look like as we plateau? Given 21% yoy in sd, half of that or 10% in the next 12 months and halved again or 5% for the 12 months after that or a steeper drop off? Also zillow not only had their...
Home Price Reductions
It is natural for home sellers to resist lowering their price. No matter what the evidence is, we want to believe that there has to be other alternatives. The blame game usually starts early too, and virtually everyone makes the list: 1. The agent isn't doing enough....
The Big Plateau
After the 2003-2004 frenzy that lasted about 18 months (sound familar?), the prices leveled off for the next couple of years - until the easy money could support it no more. With (slightly) higher mortgage rates and lagging buyer enthusiasm both helping to temper the...
More Pocket Scum
Realtors will put a twisted spin on any new gadget in order to justify hoarding commissions. In this article, one manager convinces himself that because he gets '300 emails a day and four actually apply', it's good to use a separate system that enables pocket...
Inventory Watch – Keep Moving
No panic on behalf of sellers, and the rest of the year should go quietly: The UNDER-$1,200,000 Market: Date NSDCC Active Listings Avg. LP/sf DOM Avg SF April 29 201 $384/sf 36 2,599sf May 5 195 $381/sf 36 2,633sf May 9 207 $387/sf 35 2,624sf May 18 241 $397/sf 33...
CP & The Duke
A look at the estate under construction on the $4,400,000 lot on Balboa overlooking the best of Del Mar, plus other stuff, including a couple of 69s:
Jordan’s Auction
Michael Jordan is sending to auction his Chicago 56,000 sf estate on 7 acres. Here is a look at it in the first 90 seconds: (thanks to several people who sent this in!)
Anti-Frenzy
Yesterday we saw that sellers - who said, "we can always come down later" - are getting more realistic, with the percentage of price reductions doubling over the last six months. Others will be less optimistic, and give up altogether: NSDCC Expired/Cancelled/Withdrawn...